Campaign Diaries

My most recent post about the Democratic veepstakes generated some passionate discussion about who Barack Obama should pick, which made me think it was time for a pointer on the Dem VP watch: Who’s in, who’s out and who is in between.

The Democratic veepstakes have generated considerably more buzz than the Republican ones. Not only will he surely announce first, but Obama’s search also seems more open than McCain’s more conventional list. The fact that two Democrats who were at the top of the list of possible Obama picks (Jim Webb and Ted Strickland) ruled themselves out in the past month made the Democratic veepstakes even more unpredictable by removing 2 of the 4-5 favorites. Now, speculation is increasing about which candidates are being asked for their vetting documents and which are being left out in the cold:

• Kathleen Sebelius pretty clearly implied that she was being vetted, which is not at all a surprise considering that she is one of the last favorites-from-day-one remaining with Webb and Strickland out. And don’t forget how much positive stuff Obama has been saying about Sebelius lately.

• Chris Dodd also announced — in even clearer terms — that he was in the vetting process: “There’s been some inquiries, yeah. They ask for a lot of stuff. I’ll leave it there.” This is more of a surprise to me as Dodd was never part of the top-tier, in particular since a controversy broke about his mortgage term, and because the list of people who are being vetted is never that large.

• Another former presidential candidate, Joe Biden, told CQ that he has not been asked for financial documents. If that is true and if it remains that way, it could mean Biden is less of a favorite than I thought and might not go as far as predicted — though the Senator could either be lying (potential picks are not supposed to talk to much about the discussions they are having, after all) or the call might not yet have come.

• Finally, there is the Hillary Clinton question: Howard Wolfson said that “as far as I know” Clinton was not being formally vetted though he said that it might not be necessary to make Clinton go through that formal a process considering that so much about her is already in the public record (including her tax documents). Of coure, there is no guarantee whatsoever that Clinton would have told Wolfson if she were being vetted.

That gets us to the following exhaustive list of potential VP picks, divided into the top-tier (largely defined as anyone who is being vetted or who is a strong possibility), long shots and those who have ruled themselves out:

• Top-tier: Evan Bayh, Joe Biden, Bob Casey, Wesley Clark, Hillary Clinton, Tom Dashle, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Tim Kaine, Sam Nunn, Ed Rendell, Bill Richardson, Kathleen Sebelius

• Long-shots: Michael Bloomberg, Chet Edwards (he does have House supporters…), Al Gore, Jim Jones (who is he even supporting?), Chuck Hagel, Claire McCaskill, Janet Napolitano, Bill Nelson, Jack Reed, Brian Schweitzer, Mark Warner (who would definitely be part of the top-tier were he not running for Senate).

• Ruled themselves out: Ted Strickland, Jim Webb

Anyone I have forgotten? So how would that 13-member top tier break down? Based entirely on the often-mistaken prevailing conventional wisdom, I would propose (in rough order of likelihood) the following top 4: Kathleen Sebelius, Tim Kaine, Joe Biden, Evan Bayh.

Note that two of these names (Bayh and Kaine) would result in the GOP picking-up a Democratic seat, though the Indiana governorship might change hands in November. Is that a risk Obama is willing to take? These four names are safer than the rest of the list, which is full of question marks: Did Clark’s recent declarations on McCain’s VP record rule him out in Obama’s eyes? Is Obama really considering Hillary Clinton — and does he think that he needs to? Is Bob Casey too bad a campaigner? Does Obama’s camp think Edwards could do a better job than 4 years ago? What about Rendell’s tendency to drift off-message? Sam Nunn’s justifiably gigantic problems with the Left? How could Dashle possibly portray a message of change, and would two minorities on the ticket if Obama picks Richardson not be too much for some voters to be comfortable with?

The Clinton question is particularly fascinating: does lead to a question: The reconciliation process could be going more smootly, but Obama does not seem to have as huge a unification problem as some thought he might have a few months ago. What gives? And even if Obama has decided he will not tap his former rival, why would he not at least go through the process of formally vetting Clinton (and leaking that info) to at least give the impression he is considering her? After all, the vetting process is a way to tout some names that aren’t truly being considered. Does this mean that the Obama campaign is more worried about the impression Hillary was seriously considered but not selected (which could be interpreted as an even harsher rebuke that she is not the best) than the impression that she was not considered at all?

Most recent VP headlines:

• July 7th double-shocker: Webb’s stunning exit and Crist’s marriage
• July 1st: Romney’s fundraising potential and the emergence of Thune and Portman
• June 28: Ridge hit by lobbying ties, NRO expands veto, Jones returns
• June 24: Biden, Sebelius and Crist campaigning more or less overtly
• All coverage for Democrats and Republicans