Comments on: Thursday polls: North Dakota migrates into the competitive column!

By: Is It Obama Or McCain For North Dakota?

Is It Obama Or McCain For North Dakota? — Sat, 12 Jul 2008 14:34:37 +0000

[...] blog posts like this one and this one have surprised me, partly because North Dakota is apparently surprising the nation. It seems [...]

By: Jim W

Jim W — Fri, 11 Jul 2008 18:44:52 +0000

Going into the year I thought that Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania would be the blue states that the Democrat nominee would have any chance of losing. I’ve pretty much have eliminated Minnesota from this list now, and Wisconsin an Pennyslvania are pretty likely Dem again. Even Michigan, at least to me, leans towards the Dems.

What I’m more interested now is how the Dems plan to spend the money available in the Red states. Not as much as for this year results, but for laying seeds for future Democrat candidates.

I think that Obama will capture IA, NM, CO and OH in November. Virginia is a pure tossup. Obama has a decent chance at states like MO, FL, and NC although they do lean towards McCain. Alaska, ND, ant MT are not necessarily long shots, but for Obama to capture these states he will have to continue spending money to fight off the future GOP smear campaign (we all know that it will come).

By: Joe from NC

Joe from NC — Fri, 11 Jul 2008 17:55:19 +0000

I agree with Craig. I’d go a step further and say that if McCain manages to win in November, the map will be mostly the same as in 2004. Aside from possibly NH (and recent polls dispute even that), he is unlikely to win any Kerry states.

By: Craig

Craig — Fri, 11 Jul 2008 15:35:36 +0000

I honestly do not feel McCain has much chance in Michigan. People continually talk about how the Republicans have a chance here but it hasn’t been pulling through since 2000.
In 2006 the Governor race was said to be close but Granholm, Democrat, ended up winning by 14 points, 10 points higher than in 2002.
A lot of people will say “oh I think I might…” here in Michigan but then end up staying with who they trust.
Plus, here we have Detroit. And I know for a fact that the Obama campaign is doing all it can to register voters there knowing that they will come out for him. This is a fact that it seems many polls fail to take into account.

By: Brent

Brent — Fri, 11 Jul 2008 14:54:58 +0000

Using RCP’s interactive map, I see several viable scenaria (out of a multitude) in which McCain can win toss-ups like MI, VA, NM etc. and Obama still hits 270…so long as he takes CO with its 9 points AND a 3-pointer like Alaska etc. CO plus 3 seems like a particularly strong combination for Obama.

By: Guy

Guy — Fri, 11 Jul 2008 11:50:32 +0000

What is interesting is that of the six weak Democratic states in 2004 (MI, WI, MN, WA, OR and PA) only MI seems to be in play at the moment. This is great news for Obama because he is free to spend time and money attacking GOP States like VA, IA, OH, FL, CO etc as well as the perenial swing states like NM and NV. McCain is playing defence and bearing in mind Bush didn`t get a huge electoral vote victory in 2004 that is bad news for the GOP.

By: fritz

fritz — Fri, 11 Jul 2008 09:37:28 +0000

I don’t think North Dakota, Montana, Alaska and Arizona are in play…yet, but Wisconsin is a state that is lost for McCain. The polling trends in these red or purple states are all gradually pulling to Obama. If/when the press ever starts to cover McCain and his followers gaffes like they do Obama’s (compare the importance of Gramm & Jackson remarks & the media coverage of them ) the McCain boat will sink like a stone.
As for Illinois: if McCain wins here he wins in a landslide; at this point a very unlikely event.

By: Mark

Mark — Fri, 11 Jul 2008 08:05:20 +0000

Posting again, the first link did not go through:

The last poll for Obama in IL, 4 months ago, showed him up by 29.

Until more polls for IL come out, I would not be too upset by a Rasmussen +13, for if Rasmussen gives him a +13, then he will win by about 22% at least.

Here is my 4th data poll convergence for the time period of May-June 2008 and the resulting projected EV map and other important details.

Take a look.

Since my method is the far more “conservative” method and Obama is still definitely ahead, it is looking good for the fall. McCain is on defense, he is short on cash, he is 72 years old, and his ball and chain is GWB 43.

By: Mark

Mark — Fri, 11 Jul 2008 08:03:48 +0000

The last poll for Obama in IL, 4 months ago, showed him up by 29.

Until more polls for IL come out, I would not be too upset by a Rasmussen +13, for if Rasmussen gives him a +13, then he will win by about 22% at least.

Here is my 4th data poll convergence for the time period of May-June 2008 and the resulting projected EV map and other important details.

Take a look.