Campaign Diaries

While the presidential race seems to have entered auto-pilot mode, congressional races are in a decisive stage: Not only are campaigns releasing their second quarter fundraising hauls (which could have a major impact on whether the national parties take the campaigns seriously) but the cycle’s last recruitment efforts are playing out right now. And today’s collection of news from 4 races is surprisingly positive for the GOP.

Yesterday, I pointed out that the Minnesota and Louisiana filing deadlines were approaching and that we were still looking for answers in a number of races. Two of these came today in LA-05 and LA-06.

LA-06, first: I explained yesterday that the GOP’s chances would be boost tremendously if Democratic state Rep. Michael Jackson were to run as an independent. Jackson, who was defeated in the Democratic primary before the May special election, had long threatened to make this jump, and with the filing deadline approaching Jackson has just said that he was “very likely” to jump in the race. One of the main reasons driving him is that he believes Lousiana Democrats shun black candidates.

Jackson’s entry would have a major impact on the race: Jackson represents Baton Rouge, the part of the district which boosted Don Cazayoux at the last minute in May’s special election. He could also win an important share of the black vote. With the Democratic base divided, a three-way race could guarantee a win by GOP candidate Cassidy.

In LA-05, Democrats got more bad news, though this was always a long-shot: state Rep. Gallot has announced that he will not challenge Republican incumbent Rep. Rodney Alexander (who many remember from the day he changed his party affiliation just hours before the filing deadline to prevent any Democrat from challenging him). This is a very heavily conservative district (Bush won 62% in 2004), and Democrats have not been able to make a dent at Alexander’s support since he changed parties.

Meanwhile, a lot of fundraising news has been coming in over the past two days, a lot of which isn’t necessarily that interesting. But two items stood out to me.

First, IL-11. This race has been rated as one of the most likely to switch to the Democratic side ever since Dems recruited the strongest candidate they had (state Senate President Debbie Halvorson) while the Republican candidate withdrew after the primary, leading the GOP to embark on a candidate search in which a number of high-profile Republicans declined to run. But over the past few weeks, the GOP has shown signs of life here thanks to some bad press Halvorson has been getting. And now, Republican candidate Marty Ozinga (who could also self-fund parts of his campaign) has announced he has raised $800,000 in the second quarter. That will put him at the very top of non-incumbent Republicans, a very impressive haul for a candidate that is often portrayed as having no chance.

Second, Kentucky’s Senate race. Ever since the Democrats’ first few choices announced they would not run against Senator McConnell, this race has been a question mark: Sure, Bruce Lunsford is competitive in a number of polls, but can he beat the well-entrenched Senate Minority Leader in a GOP-leaning state? McConnell has the reputation of being a strong campaigner, and he won’t have any money problems: He has raised $3 million in the second quarter, which Politico says is the largest of any Republican incumbent in the Senate. On the other hand, Lunsford can self-fund his campaign and announced that he was already putting in $1 million of his own money to challenging McConnell.

However, it is worth pointing to FL-24 as another race in which fundraising news is significant… and this time favoring the Democratic candidate. State Rep. Suzanne Kosmas outraised her opponent, incumbent GOP Rep. Tom Feeney, who is under fire for his connections to Jack Abramoff. While it is not worth noting every challenger that outraises an incumbent, FL-24 is not traditionally included in the top-tier of House races, making Kosmas’s haul that much more impressive and ensuring that she will catch the attention (and financial help) of the DCCC.