John McCain has long benefited from the conventional wisdom that he is uncumfortable invoking his years in Vietnam and as a POW on the campaign trail. But back in December, McCain’s decision to air an ad in New Hampshire devoted to his experience as a POW suggested that Vietnam could play more central a role than McCain would like us to believe. (As a side note, it is really worth rereading the late December post in which I first brought up the ad as it is a fascinating reminder of just how late McCain surged in the primaries.) Now in the early weeks of the general election, McCain seems to be increasing his reliance on references to Vietnam.
His latest ad is a one-minute spot that starts by celebrating the Arizona Senator’s service in Vietnam. The ad starts with images of anti-war protests and of kissing (and I believe cross-dressing) hippies and contrasts them with what McCain was doing at the same time: “Half a world away, another kind of love — of country. John McCain: Shot down. Bayoneted. Tortured. Offered early release, he said, “No.” He’d sworn an oath.” The take-home message: While leftist radicals were amusing themselves at degenerate festivals like Woodstock, McCain was putting himself in harm’s way to serve his country. (Note that Obama was only 6 when McCain’s plane was shot down and 8 during Woodstock, so McCain cannot criticize him in this vein.) And just like the December ad, this spot uses footage of McCain as a POW:
The rest of this biographical ad praises the Senator’s Senate service in what looks like an effort to build a brand. The ad ends simply with the words “McCain” and check the buzzwords that are used: “Maverick” is a prominent one and “reform” is repeated over and over again. McCain’s message is that he is not beholden to his party and has no other allegiance than serving America: “He took on presidents, partisans and popular opinion. (…) John McCain doesn’t always tell us what we ‘hope’ to hear.” These are the themes McCain has been emphasizing for weeks and also the message that is contained in the RNC’s contrast ad on energy: moderation and pragmatism.
Without naming him, the ad takes a shot at Obama (”Beautiful words cannot make our lives better”) — though keep in mind that the Clinton campaign attempted the very same type of attack in the Democratic primaries (remember the “sky will open, the light will come down” speech?). Clinton was not able to convince voters Obama was all talk and empty hope, so will McCain adapt those arguments to learn from Clinton’s failure or does his campaign believe that McCain’s life story is more compelling than Clinton’s, making the talk v. action contrast more successful?
And how will voters react to McCain’s use of Vietnam? It certainly did not help John Kerry in 2004 and there are obvious reasons it could backfire on McCain. For one, it reminds voters of his age, especially when contrasted with a youthful Democratic candidate who prides himself for not being part of the Vietnam generation. In 2004, McCain said he was “sick and tired of re-fighting the Vietnam War” but it is Obama who is promising to move past the Vietnam era. And how much can McCain invoke Vietnam without giving the impression he is exploiting his service too opportunistically?
McCain’s speech on immigration today had a long reference to McCain’s POW days, suggesting that the candidate is really planning on using Vietnam any time he possibly can, even on issues that are entirely unrelated. After explaining why the country needs comprehensive immiration reform, McCain’s speech includes this passage:
When I was in prison in Vietnam, I like other of my fellow POWs, was offered early release by my captors. Most of us refused because we were bound to our code of conduct, which said those who had been captured the earliest had to be released the soonest. My friend, Everett Alvarez, a brave American of Mexican descent, had been shot down years before I was, and had suffered for his country much more and much longer than I had. To leave him behind would have shamed us.
John Kerry ended up being hurt by his tendency to rely on Vietnam on the campaign trail. Will McCain?
Update: Few surprises in the list of states McCain is airing the ad in: CO, IA, MI, MO, NV, NH, NM, OH, PA, WI and VA. The campaign has only recently decided to air ads in Virginia, and there are two glaring absences in this list: Florida (is McCain that confident that it is safe in the Sunshine State?) and Minnesota (which the GOP used to be confident about). Does that suggest that McCain is now leaning against choosing Gov. Pawlenty (if he were, would he not expect the state to tighten again and remain competitive)?
The ad is better than McCain’s previous one but using Vietnam didn’t help him in 2000. It already backfired at the time after Rove spread rumors all over South Carolina. And then same with Kerry. I guess this time Rove is on McCain’s side so who is going to use this against him?
This type of ad is a loser for McCain. Obama has actually done a great job inoculating himself against this tactic. As much as the McCain camp would like to think differently, when you see those scenes of the dancing hippies, it doesn’t bring to mind Obama. They’re trying to renew the culture wars, but Obama has invested his entire national career in breaking those Red/Blue trendlines. It’s what his move to the center, as much as it frustrated the netroots community, is designed to do. It’s also the reason Wesley Clark’s comments were a net positive for Obama, despite the clunkiness of them.
The real effect that this ad will have is to make it easier for Obama to brand McCain as not being the candidate to move forward in the 21st century.