Campaign Diaries

For the first time since Kennedy in 1960, a presidential nominee will not deliver his acceptance speech in the convention hall: the convention’s organizing committee announced today that Obama would speak at the Invesco Field (Denver’s football stadium), which seats 76,000, rather than the Pepsi Center, where the rest of the convention will take place.

The move is designed to generate a more exciting and electric ambiance in what will be one of the most important nights of the general election. The audience size will now rival that of Obama’s speech in Portland in May, when the candidate attracted a record crowd in the run-up to the state’s primary. And August 28th (the Thursday Obama will deliver his acceptance speech) is the 40th anniversary of MLK’s “I have a dream” speech, and the campaign seems determined to make the most of that symbolism.

The Obama campaign must have noticed the reviews of the June 3rd speeches, when a dismally weak McCain spoke to an unenthusiastic and small audience, followed shortly after by a fired-up Obama. While the acceptance speeches will not be the same night, McCain’s will take place only a week after Obama’s and Democrats are determined to make the most of the contrast. The New York Times published an article yesterday on McCain’s awkward public-speaking and his battle with the teleprompter, explaining that his advisers were working to change his habits — meaning that Republicans have got to be worried about McCain’s acceptance speech on September 4th.

In short, the take-home lesson of this decision is that any campaign would surely love to pull this off if they were confident their candidate’s speech would be strong and were confident they could fill the stadium. McCain’s campaign cannot trust itself on either front. Obama’s does.

But despite all the obvious benefits, this move is also a risky one. For one, Democrats have a major financial and organizational problem. Their convention fundraising is very weak, the organizing committee is millions over budget and weeks late on preparation, and many mistakes are being made. The New York Times details these piling troubles Democrats are already facing preparing for the convention, and having to now pay for and organize the move to Invesco Field (security costs alone will be daunting) will make life more difficult and costly for the organizing committee — and also for the Obama campaign which will most likely have to pay for any expense that does not fit the DNC’s (low) budget.

Second, I can’t help but think of a nominee’s acceptance speech as a different kind of address, one that often results in a significant bounce and in changes to the nominee’s image because viewers tune in thinking of the occasion as a special one. In other words, the acceptance speech is not just a campaign speech; it is a candidate’s attempt to morph into presidential clothings. Will moving the speech to a football arena — however big it will be — not threaten to undermine that image and not reduce the address to another in the series of speeches Obama delivered throughout the spring on every election night?

First Read finds a similar risk for Obama — a contrast between rock star and serious. This was definitely a recurrent theme of the primary season, as huge crowds did not translate in primary victories for Obama (see New Hampshire):

Is it possible we see a really low key GOP convention in a way that emphasizes the serious over the rock star? It’s the obvious way to go, and if Obama goes too rock star (as he’s doing with the football stadium rally), it just may work.

The Republican convention planners have an entirely different set of concerns. The financial and organizational aspects seem to be on track for the GOP. But beyond concerns about McCain’s public speaking, Republicans have to resolve the Bush dilemma. What should they do with the President? On the one hand, the sitting president and leader of the party cannot be shunned; on the other, the main challenge Republicans face this year is showing that they are not just Bush surrogates and that they are not simply seeking to extend the Bush Administration into a third term. It looks like the McCain campaign is very aware of this problem and is planning to have Bush speak on the first night of the convention and then leave town, - just as Democrats had done in 2000 when Al Gore wanted to show that he was his own man - with no joint appearances planned between the two men.