Comments on: Third electoral ratings: Obama solidifies his base, though his edge narrows http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/07/02/3rd-electoral-ratings/ Obsessive political analysis Sat, 20 Mar 2010 02:16:15 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: zoot http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/07/02/3rd-electoral-ratings/comment-page-1/#comment-4659 zoot Thu, 03 Jul 2008 06:34:01 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=912#comment-4659 The numbers in GA are interesting - 600 K unregistered black voters, 8%-10% McCain lead, per Realclearpolitics (end of June), Barr currently polling 1%-3%. (I'm ignoring the one outlier that showed a 1% McCain margin.) Probably not enough room for Obama to actually win there, but classic misdirection might force an underfunded McCain campaign to use resources there. Random thought - 527s organized by Obama supporters get active on behalf of Barr in GA. The numbers in GA are interesting - 600 K unregistered black voters, 8%-10% McCain lead, per Realclearpolitics (end of June), Barr currently polling 1%-3%. (I’m ignoring the one outlier that showed a 1% McCain margin.)

Probably not enough room for Obama to actually win there, but classic misdirection might force an underfunded McCain campaign to use resources there. Random thought - 527s organized by Obama supporters get active on behalf of Barr in GA.

]]> By: Jaxx Raxor http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/07/02/3rd-electoral-ratings/comment-page-1/#comment-4658 Jaxx Raxor Wed, 02 Jul 2008 22:41:05 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=912#comment-4658 I think that Indiana is Lean McCain rather than likely McCain because recent polling shows them rather close. However I'm not sure how much of an effort Obama will make in that. I agree with the changes of Minnesota and California, as well as Missisipi. Schaller was actually one of my professors at UMBC and he talked alot about the South being a dead end for Democrats. Obama will get into single digits in Missisipi, but whites are too conservative and too racially polarized for him to win. Georgia is more of a safe state to me as well because I doubt Bob Barr will have enough of an effect based on his anemic fundraising. Maybe in a state like Alaska Barr will have his greatest effect as it is cheap to put ads in, but if Obama forces McCain to visit the state then its a good sign. If McCain totally ignores it and assumes it will be an easy GOP win then I think Obama could win Alaska by a narrow margin. Its if McCain decides to play defense that Obama will have problems in that state. I think that Indiana is Lean McCain rather than likely McCain because recent polling shows them rather close. However I’m not sure how much of an effort Obama will make in that. I agree with the changes of Minnesota and California, as well as Missisipi. Schaller was actually one of my professors at UMBC and he talked alot about the South being a dead end for Democrats. Obama will get into single digits in Missisipi, but whites are too conservative and too racially polarized for him to win. Georgia is more of a safe state to me as well because I doubt Bob Barr will have enough of an effect based on his anemic fundraising. Maybe in a state like Alaska Barr will have his greatest effect as it is cheap to put ads in, but if Obama forces McCain to visit the state then its a good sign. If McCain totally ignores it and assumes it will be an easy GOP win then I think Obama could win Alaska by a narrow margin. Its if McCain decides to play defense that Obama will have problems in that state.

]]> By: Ron http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/07/02/3rd-electoral-ratings/comment-page-1/#comment-4657 Ron Wed, 02 Jul 2008 22:15:49 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=912#comment-4657 Georgia is different than Mississippi only because Barr will have a higher result. Otherwise Georgia would be safe for McCain too. Do you think Indiana is competitive? Georgia is different than Mississippi only because Barr will have a higher result. Otherwise Georgia would be safe for McCain too.
Do you think Indiana is competitive?

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