Campaign Diaries

In a much-discussed article published in Politico, Mike Allen challenges the conventional wisdom that gives an edge to Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty by identifying the top-tier of McCain’s veepstakes as Mitt Romney, Rob Portman and Jon Thune. However little Portman and Thune’s names have been associated with the top-tier up until now, the list does make sense in that it leaves out the unorthodox candidates that would be most likely to anger conservatives.

Allen makes room for the other piece of conventional wisdom that is now widely spread about the Republican veepstakes: McCain wants someone with whom he has personal chemistry, and this is the main obstacle on Romney’s path. As you might remember, Romney and McCain’s relationship was icy throughout the primary season, culminating in a nasty ad war in New Hampshire and in a stunningly petty debate in which Romney was reduced to a bullied kid (on January 6th). Their relationship has warmed up ever since, and Romney was included in the list of guests to McCain’s ranch a few weeks ago.

An important reason the article provides for Romney being so high on the list is that his selection would allow McCain to tap in his fundraising network “through his former business partners and from fellow members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints, the Mormons.” Allen adds: “McCain sources tell Politico that they believe Romney could raise $50 million in 60 days. One close Romney adviser said it could even be $60 million.”

I am not exactly sure what this could mean, and how Romney’s fundraising potential is supposed to impact the race. McCain will receive public financing for the general election campaign and will no longer be able to use private donations once he accepts the nomination on September 5th. Until then, he will use privately contributed primary funds to finance his campaign. McCain will announce his vice-presidential pick most probably after Barack Obama reveals his choice, sometime in the first week of August.

This leaves just one month between the veep pick and the end of private financing for McCain’s campaign. It is unclear when Romney would raise so much money for McCain, nor when the Republican nominee would be able to use it, making Romney’s ability to provide McCain a financial boost entirely irrelevant. The New Republic’s Noam Scheiber has a similar take on the possibility that financial considerations dictate a Romney pick.

What, then, could Allen have meant? There are 3 possibilities that come to mind:

1. McCain might be willing to tell Romney in the coming days that he will select him as his running-mate. This would be a very unlikely development, given the low odds of that remaining secret for a month and the fact that McCain is almost certainly nowhere near that stage of the process.
2. McCain might be considering opting out of public financing. But I am very skeptical of this. He has not started raising any private money for the general, and it would be a gigantic risk for him to start doing so. His best fundraising month so far has been $21 million. If he opts out in early August, that would leave him 3 months to top the $87 million he would have received from the FEC and do so by a margin substantial enough for the political drawbacks of being hit for his flip-flop to be worthwhile.
3. Romney’s fundraising potential could be used to raise money for the RNC, rather than McCain’s campaign. But would the candidate’s entourage be as excited about that possibility? Sure, the RNC’s resources will be absolutely critical to McCain’s presidential hopes, as the party’s spending will complement the candidate’s $87 million and reduce the gap with Obama’s spending. But McCain would not have any control of how that money is spend, as any coordination would be illegal. Furthermore, Romney has already been doing much more than was expected to raise money, in an obvious effort to campaign for VP. But he is also doing so to position himself for a future presidential run, meaning that he would be likely to continue helping the RNC in the months ahead whatever the fate of his vice-presidential ambitions.

All in all, it remains unclear what the McCain sources Mike Allen cites could have meant when talking about Romney’s fundraising potential. The first two possibilities (McCain opting out of public financing or informing Romney early) would be huge news, though they are naturally the most unlikely. This is not to say that Romney is not part of McCain’s short list (in fact, there are a lot of good reasons for a Romney pick, including the fact that McCain has little to say about the economy, which was always the area Romney was the most comfortable talking about).

As for Thune and Portman, there are both likely to make conservatives happy. Both are relatively young (born in 1961 and 1955 respectively) and Thune is already mentioned as a top contender for the upcoming presidential elections. As for Portman, a former House member who Bush appointed as U.S. Trade Representative and as Director of Management and Budget. Robert Novak has been beating the drum for Portman to be considered a top contender. But are his associations to President Bush not too strong?

Ultimately, this gets to the weakness of articles that try to propose new information about who is on the short list and what sources are saying: Since the sourcing is so vague and no one wants to be known as leaking any information, it becomes very difficult to understand what is being speculated or who is doing the speculating.

Speaking of strange veep speculation, NY Mag’s new article dissing Sebelius, Biden and Hagel as examples of how all of Obama’s choices have problems devotes the most space in its section about Sebelius to the argument (provided by one “well connected” source) that Obama could then suffer from the “very American trope about miscegenation. (…) Every time they smile at each other, it will be triggered … And that’s exactly the kind of anxiety you do not want to raise in white working-class men — the fear that this handsome, charismatic black guy is after their women.” That the article concludes that Obama’s safest and best bet is Hillary Clinton, another white woman, does undermine its coherence..

Most recent VP headlines:

• June 28: Ridge hit by lobbying ties, NRO expands veto, Jones returns
• June 24: Biden, Sebelius and Crist campaigning more or less overtly
• June 20: James Jones chooses McCain, Frank warns against Nunn
• June 16: Jindal’s exorcism problem and (more-or-less credible) Democratic denials
• All coverage for Democrats and Republicans