Comments on: Tuesday polls: Split Florida polls, Dole increases lead though NC is a presidential toss-up http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/07/01/tuesday-polls-split-florida-polls-dole-increases-lead-though-nc-is-a-presidential-toss-up/ Obsessive political analysis Wed, 17 Mar 2010 23:27:58 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: Chicago Boots http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/07/01/tuesday-polls-split-florida-polls-dole-increases-lead-though-nc-is-a-presidential-toss-up/comment-page-1/#comment-4656 Chicago Boots Thu, 03 Jul 2008 16:18:51 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=947#comment-4656 Bob Barr will pick up Republican voters from Obama that doesn't like McCain and your "less inspired conservative white" voters who was not going to vote for either. Bob Barr will pick up Republican voters from Obama that doesn’t like McCain and your “less inspired conservative white” voters who was not going to vote for either.

]]> By: st paul sage http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/07/01/tuesday-polls-split-florida-polls-dole-increases-lead-though-nc-is-a-presidential-toss-up/comment-page-1/#comment-4655 st paul sage Wed, 02 Jul 2008 03:29:24 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=947#comment-4655 Schaller changes two numbers - black turnout and black dem voting percentage and says that's not enough to win in Southern states. True - but Obama could benefit from other numbers to really put these states in play. 1) A less inspired conservative white voter base. A very realistic possibility with the MS-1 special an excellent example. Given McCain's discomfort talking about the things that get these people to the polls, Obama woulod be foolish not to press the issue. If McCain loses a chunk of Bush voters and Obama adds more black voters - you get a very different number. 2) The Barr vote, it may not be much, but if he picks up 5 or more percent in GA and you take into account the changes above that could obviously threaten McCain. 3) Changing demographics: Schaller correctly points to the more democratic new voters of Northern Virginia as a reason why Obama could win there. But there are lots of new voters in Mecklenburg County North Carolina, too. While it's clearly more of a stretch, it's not impossible by any means. Schaller changes two numbers - black turnout and black dem voting percentage and says that’s not enough to win in Southern states. True - but Obama could benefit from other numbers to really put these states in play.

1) A less inspired conservative white voter base. A very realistic possibility with the MS-1 special an excellent example. Given McCain’s discomfort talking about the things that get these people to the polls, Obama woulod be foolish not to press the issue. If McCain loses a chunk of Bush voters and Obama adds more black voters - you get a very different number.

2) The Barr vote, it may not be much, but if he picks up 5 or more percent in GA and you take into account the changes above that could obviously threaten McCain.

3) Changing demographics: Schaller correctly points to the more democratic new voters of Northern Virginia as a reason why Obama could win there. But there are lots of new voters in Mecklenburg County North Carolina, too. While it’s clearly more of a stretch, it’s not impossible by any means.

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