Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-settings.php on line 512

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-settings.php on line 527

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-settings.php on line 534

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-settings.php on line 570

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Page::start_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::start_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1199

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Page::end_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::end_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1199

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Page::start_el() should be compatible with Walker::start_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1199

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Page::end_el() should be compatible with Walker::end_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1199

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_PageDropdown::start_el() should be compatible with Walker::start_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1244

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Category::start_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::start_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1391

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Category::end_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::end_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1391

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Category::start_el() should be compatible with Walker::start_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1391

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Category::end_el() should be compatible with Walker::end_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1391

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_CategoryDropdown::start_el() should be compatible with Walker::start_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1442

Strict Standards: Redefining already defined constructor for class wpdb in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/wp-db.php on line 306

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/cache.php on line 103

Strict Standards: Redefining already defined constructor for class WP_Object_Cache in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/cache.php on line 431

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/query.php on line 61

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/theme.php on line 1109

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Comment::start_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::start_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/comment-template.php on line 1266

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Comment::end_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::end_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/comment-template.php on line 1266

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Comment::start_el() should be compatible with Walker::start_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/comment-template.php on line 1266

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Comment::end_el() should be compatible with Walker::end_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/comment-template.php on line 1266

Strict Standards: Redefining already defined constructor for class WP_Dependencies in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/class.wp-dependencies.php on line 31

Strict Standards: Redefining already defined constructor for class WP_Http in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/http.php on line 61

Strict Standards: Non-static method K2::init() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/functions.php on line 31

Strict Standards: Non-static method K2::register_scripts() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 51

Strict Standards: call_user_func_array() expects parameter 1 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2Options::init() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/plugin.php on line 339

Strict Standards: call_user_func_array() expects parameter 1 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2Header::init() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/plugin.php on line 339

Strict Standards: Non-static method K2Header::get_header_width() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/header.php on line 8

Strict Standards: call_user_func_array() expects parameter 1 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::filter_post_comments() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/plugin.php on line 166

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458
2008 July Archive at Campaign Diaries
Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Strict Standards: call_user_func_array() expects parameter 1 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2Header::output_header_css() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/plugin.php on line 339

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003


Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
Monthly Archive for July, 2008


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Thursday polls: Toss-up in Montana, Begich and McConnell move ahead

The number of polls released today was so outstanding that a second roundup is required - so I apologize for making this a day particularly heavy with polling posts. As compensation, I offer you this link to an amusing interview of top McCain strategist Rick Davis (the one who signed the memo alleging that “only celebrities like Barack Obama go to the gym three times a day, demand “MET-RX chocolate roasted-peanut protein bars”) by high-profile NBC journalist Andrea Mitchell. A visibly exasperated and incredulous Mitchell challenges Davis to justify why Obama is a celebrity and why the campaign is stooping to such a low level - “no one would deny that,” answers Davis.

In fact, the entire interview is a good pointer on the type of arguments the McCain campaign is looking to use in the coming weeks. In particular, Davis choosing to repeatedly diss the support Obama received in Germany as something that ought to make voters dislike him was a clear echo of the 2004 race and the efforts to portray Kerry as too snobbish, too European. Davis went as far as to hold up expats as the type of elites “working class aspiring voters” should rebel against, and explicitly gave up on the entire expat vote (they’re expats, so they vote for Obama, he charged) - something that might not be so wise considering that expats are not necessarily a monolithically Democratic electorate and that they might impact a close election. Davis’s one-leaner against John Weaver is also particularly noteworthy.

Back to polls. This morning, Quinnipiac showed tight races in Ohio and Florida while Obama led in Pennsylvania and CNN’s national poll. In yet more presidential polling released today, we got some more narrow results:

  • For the fourth consecutive day, Obama lost ground in Gallup’s tracking poll. Up 9% on Sunday, he now gets 45% to McCain’s 44% - the narrowest the race has been for more than 10 days, or before Obama embarked on his trip.
  • Another national poll, by Pew, has Obama leading by 5%, 50% to 45%. In June, Obama led by 8%. 48% said they learned something about Obama’s foreign policy as a result of the trip, versus 52%.
  • In Rasmussen’s poll from Montana, McCain gets 45% to Obama’s 44% - and the two are tied at 47% when leaners are included. Three weeks ago, Obama was ahead by 5% - but that was seen as a truly shocking result. McCain’s favorability rating is slightly better.
  • In Insider Advantage poll from Georgia, the race remains surprisingly close, with McCain ahead 45% to 41% with 3% for Bob Barr.
  • In two Kentucky polls, McCain remains ahead - albeit by varying margins. For Rasmussen, he is up 49% to 39% (down from a 15% lead) but Obama’s unfavorability rating is 50%, compared to 35% for McCain’s. In Research 2000’s poll, McCain leads 56% to 35%.
  • A Texas poll released by Rasmussen, meanwhile, finds McCain holding on to a 9% lead, 50% to 41%. With leaners, the race narrows to a 52% to 44% margin.
  • In California, Obama is ahead 50% to 35% in a PPIC survey.
  • Finally, an Idaho poll released by Research 2000 has McCain leading 53% to 37%. Four years ago, Bush won here by 39%.

Among these state surveys, the Montana poll is certainly the most interesting, but it is a shame that Rasmussen is the only institute that is releasing polls from this state, making it hard to confirm the state’s tightness. McCain might have gained 6% in the past 3 weeks here, but we are not used enough to seeing Montana be this competitive that a tie can in any way be regarded as a disappointing showing for Obama. The Illinois Senator has been running ads in this state and visited it already, and it seems like he succeeded in putting it in play. In fact, the Idaho poll confirms how much of a shift we are observing in the Mountain West.

The other polls come from states that we have long known are less competitive, with Texas and Georgia two states in which McCain’s leads are often much smaller than they ought to be but in which it would take much too great an investment by Obama to truly move the numbers. The Illinois Senator has been spending in Georgia, but other polls have shown larger leads for McCain.

Meanwhile, a number of down-the-ballot polls were released during the day:

  • The most entertaining came from Alaska, where Rasmussen polled three possible match-ups in the day after Ted Stevens’s indictment. If the Senator wins his primary and stays in the race, he is trailing Mark Begich 50% to 37%. Stevens’s favorability rating remains positive, at 50% to 46%. Begich would beat real estate developer David Cuddy 50% to 35% and he leads against unknown but wealthy businessman Vic Vickers 55% to 22%.
  • In Idaho’s Senate race, Research 2000’s poll finds a surprisingly narrow race, with Lieutenant Governor Risch leading former Rep. LaRocco 42% to 32%, with 5% to independent candidate Rex Rammell.
  • In Kentucky’s Senate race, two similar results: Rasmussen found McConnell leading 50% to 38% (up from 48% to 41% lead last month) and Research 2000 showed McConnell leading 49% to 38%, compared to 12% lead last month.
  • Finally, two interesting independent House polls from SUSA. In IN-09, Rep. Hill is leading 49% to 42% in the third fourth match-up between the Democrat and Mike Sodrel.
  • In WA-08, SUSA finds Republican Rep. Reichert with a 50% to 44% lead against his opponent Darcy Burner, in another rematch from 2006. (No surprises in WA-02, where Democratic Rep. Larsen has a huge lead in a race no one is following.)

The reason the Alaska Senate race is in such a chaotic race is that we don’t know who will be running against Mark Begich. If it is any of the three people polled by Rasmussen here, it would mean that (1) Stevens lost the primary to Cuddy or Vickens or that (2) he won the primary and then insisted to stay on the ballot. Under either of these scenarios, it is nearly certain that Alaska would join New Mexico and Virginia as three Senates Democrats are likely to pick-up. The GOP’s hope in this seat is for Stevens to win the primary and then withdraw from the race - allowing for a stronger Republican to try his luck. Until we get a better idea of whether this is a possible scenario, Rasmussen’s poll is not enough to conclude Begich is the clear favorite.

The Kentucky and Idaho Senate races are to second-to-third tier races that the DSCC might be hoping to put in play if it hits the jackpot. The former contest has been heated, with McConnell going on air early with negative ads related to energy issues. As a result, it is hardly surprising to see him take his first consistent double-digit lead. Given how large McConnell’s war chest is (more than $9 million), Lunsford will be vulnerable to such attacks throughout the campaign. The Idaho race is less engaged but a number of Republicans are grumbling that Risch is not running a strong enough campaign; it will take much more than that for LaRocco to get close to scoring a huge upset.

Finally, both IN-09 and WA-08 will featured tight races if only because of the intensity of the previous elections. This is the third fourth consecutive match-up between Hill and Sodrel, with the Democrat having already won 2 out of 3. Reichert survived 2006 by only two percentage points. Both incumbents are flirting with the 50% line and are thus clearly endangered, but such leads are more impressive in polls of rematches in which the challenger is already somewhat known.


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Obama and media hit McCain’s “low road” tactics, as McCain puts focus on Obama

In August 2004, the Swift Boat ads hit John Kerry shortly after the end of his convention. Constrained by public financing limit (he had the same amount to spend as his opponent over a much longer period), Kerry thought he could get away without airing responses. The rest is history. This year, Barack Obama has no such problem and it only took him a few hours to release his response ad to McCain’s “celeb” spot:

The ad’s first part hits McCain for taking the low road and using the “same old politics” by using quotes from media outlets blasting McCain’s attacks as “baloney,” “not true,” “baseless.” (Obama used a very similar tactic against Hillary Clinton in the primary.) The ad uses Obama’s ultimate come-back: an image of McCain and Bush. The second part highlights proposals of Obama’s energy plan - an answer to the charges in McCain’s “celeb” ad that Obama had no plain to get the US out of “foreign oil.”

This is certainly not the harshest of responses, but against John McCain in particular it has the potential to be powerful. For a candidate to accuse his opponent of engaging in misleading attacks can be a useful counter, but it rarely constitutes an attack in and of itself because few politicians cultivate “honesty” as a central part of their image. McCain, on the other hand, presents himself as a “straight-talker” - and that perception of him as a maverick who has himself been a victim of slimy politics has long driven his popularity. For Obama to convince voters that McCain is now engaging in nasty attacks of his own could undermine the very core of McCain’s appeal.

Today, McCain stood by his ad: “All I can say is we’re proud of that commercial,” he said. The danger for him is that his campaign will be increasingly compared to that of George Bush, whereas he was supposed to be a different type of politician. That McCain’s increasingly negative rhetoric coincides with the rise of Steve Schmidt (a former protege of Karl Rove) makes for a ready media narrative. The New York Times’s blurb for its article on McCain’s “celeb” ad is: “Veterans of President Bush’s 2004 bid are coordinating an effort to create a negative narrative about Barack Obama.

In fact, the media’s reaction to McCain’s “celeb” ad is probably stronger than McCain expected. It is one thing for the New York Times to issue an editorial blasting him; it is quite another when local papers across the country to do so Here is the lede of the St. Petersburg Times’s editorial: “The Straight Talk Express has taken a nasty turn into the gutter. Sen. John McCain has resorted to lies and distortions in what sounds like an increasingly desperate attempt to slow down Sen. Barack Obama.” (The Times endorsed Kerry in 2004.) Or this “ad watch” published by a group of Ohio papers (The Plain Dealer, the Cincinnati Enquirer, the Columbus Dispatch, … ), some of whom endorsed Bush. This group gives the ad a “zero” on a “truthfulness rating.”

Seeking to drive this point home and ruin McCain’s image as a “straight talker,” groups supporting Obama are stepping up their attacks on the Republican nominee - particularly on the issue of energy, which has become quite the focus of this year’s election. For instance, MoveOn has just released a new ad, with a $150,000 buy, with a middle-age man complaining that McCain has abandoned his “principled” stance to endorse electoral “gimmicks” like offshore drilling (The Sierra Club is airing its own “six figure” ad in New Hampshire, Colorado and Ohio, also hitting McCain for his ties to Big Oil; you can view it here.):

None of this is to say that the ad will not be effective at furthering the narrative of an unexperienced Obama who lacks substance. In 2004, most commentators slammed the Swift Boat ads; but by airing their claims over and over again, the media introduced those themes in the public debate and Kerry never recovered. Hints of such a pattern emerged over the past few days: It has now been revealed that McCain barely put any cash behind last week’s ad accusing Obama of having canceled his visits to German troops and relayed on media coverage to get the message out.

Of course, we won’t know for a while how effective any of this is; perhaps will we look back in a few weeks, once we know how the elections proceeded and what themes ended up mattering. All I am saying is that the media’s dismissing McCain’s ad does not mean that it will not achieve its goal. Ever since Obama came back from his international trip, McCain’s claims about his rival - that he thrives on media coverage, that he does not care about the troops, that he lacks substance - have been driving the political discussion, leading people to talk about these issues and focusing the election on Obama’s biography and experience.

This conversation took an uglier turn today as the two campaigns fell in an argument over who was playing the race card. Some suggested that the McCain campaign’s use of two blond women is a racial tactic (a la Ford-Corker). Obama said yesterday, “What they’re going to try to do is make you scared of me… You know, he doesn’t look like all those other presidents on the dollar bills.” The McCain campaign issued a blistering response, accusing Obama of playing “the race card.” This is something neither campaign wants to tackle too closely. McCain would be hurt by suggestions that he is engaging in racial tactics but Obama would be as hurt if white downscale voters (the group Obama had trouble with in the primary) come to think they are being accused of racist reactions.


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Q-Pac polls from the “Big Three:” Obama ahead, losing ground

Last night, I moved Florida out of the McCain column for the first time in my latest presidential ratings - with a slight apprehension at doing so just hours before I could see the results of the latest Quinnipiac polls. Well, there were no surprises in Quinnipiac’s latest release from the “Big Three” battleground states:

  • In Ohio, Obama gets 46% to McCain’s 44%. In June, Obama led 48% to 42%. Obama improves his share of Democratic voters yet again (69% in May to 80% in June to 84% today) but McCain leads by 8% more among Republicans.
  • In Florida, the margin is also 46% to 44% in Obama’s favor, down from a 47% to 43% lead last month. Obama gets 86% of the Democratic vote but now trails among independents. He leads 56% to 36% among Hispanics (a very good margin for Florida) and 65% to 29% among Jewish voters. A problematic constituency here are white voters with no college degree, that opt for McCain by 15%.
  • In Pennsylvania, Obama is ahead more comfortably, 49% to 42%. Last month, he led 52% to 40%. McCain only gets 1% of the black vote! Obama’s support among Democrats is stable from last month.
  • In all three states, slightly more voters say that Obama’s energy plan is better than McCain’s. That’s within the margin of error, but this is an issue the GOP has been focusing with particular intensity lately.

Overall, then, these polls confirm the conventional wisdom - which also happens to be the wisdom of my most recent ratings - that Florida and Ohio are toss-ups and Pennsylvania leans Democratic. That Obama is ahead in all three states is obviously good news for the Democrat, especially given that he has many other routes to get to 270 electoral votes than winning Ohio and Florida. Either one of these two states could be enough to put Obama over the top considering that other states are even more likely to fall into his column (say, Iowa) and McCain would then have to win Michigan to survive.

Yet, the trendlines in each polls favors McCain (with modest gains from 2% to 5%) - just as last week when McCain gained ground in each of Quinnipiac’s July 24th releases from MN, WI, CO and MI. In other words, Obama might be narrowly ahead by most indicators, but the race is still in flux and we can expect a lot more movement in the coming months.

Other presidential polls were released yesterday afternoon:

  • CNN’s national poll found Obama increasing his lead, 51% to 44%. The previous poll had Obama leading by 5%. In a series of bizarre questions, CNN tested the efficiency of some of McCain’s attacks on Obama and found that the electorate is not sharing them: Only 37% say Obama is arrogant, 72% say he cares about veterans and troops in Iraq. Asked whether Obma is acting as if he has already won the election, 44% say yes. McCain has an edge on who would best handle terrorism (+15%), Afghanistan and Iraq (+7%), but Obama has an edge on the economy and gas prices (+11%) and even on the topic the GOP likes to attack Democrats on the most: taxes!
  • In Michigan, PPP has Obama losing his advantage from the previous poll, with his lead down from 8% to 3% (46-43). This confirms the tightening we have been observing in other polls (Quinnipiac, for instance) and Michigan moved back to the toss-up column last night.
  • In Mississippi, Rasmussen finds McCain opening his first double-digit lead, 52% to 41%. He led by 6% in both the June and May poll. McCain’s favorability rating is at 64%. Obama’s at 47%.
  • In Nebraska, Rasmussen shows McCain leading 50% to 32%. Obama’s favorability rating is low: 45% against 51%.

In 2004, Nebraska’s 1st and 2nd congressional districts performed 11% more Democratic than the state at large. Rasmussen does not provide any breakdown that I can see in this poll, but that would put Obama in single-digit territory in his hopes of wrestling away at least one of these electoral votes. Some of the advertisment he is airing in Iowa is spilling over in the Omaha market, so voters in the 1st district are seeing ads. Overall, however, there is no question that McCain has little to worry about in either of these states. There has been some noise about Mississippi turning blue, but given the extent of the racial polarization of the state (getting 20% of the white vote would be an impressive achievement for Obama), it will take a substantial boost in black turnout for him to even get close.

Finally, some down-the-ballot polls to close this polling roundup:

  • In Mississippi’s Senate race, Sen. Wicker opens his first significant lead in the Rasmussen poll: 48% to 42%, 52% to 41% with leaners. Musgrove’s favorability, at 51%, is inferior to Wicker’s at 61%. In the past two months, the margin was 1%.
  • In another poll of the MS Senate race that was released late last week by Research 2000 but that I completly forgot to report, Wicker gets 45% to Musgrove’s 44%. 17% of black voters were undecided compared to 7% of white voters, so Musgrove had much more room to grow.
  • In the Nebraska Senate race, no surprises in Rasmussen’s latest poll: Johanns is up 56% to 31%.
  • In North Carolina’s gubernatorial race, Beverly Perdue opens her first significant lead since the primary and leads 46% to 37% in PPP’s latest poll - up from 1% last month.
  • Finally, in NV-03, an internal poll for former gubernatorial candidate Dina Titus finds her ahead of GOP Rep. Porter 43% to 39%.

It’s important not to jump to conclusions in Mississippi’s Senate race based on only one survey - especially when the parallel movement upwards of McCain and Wicker suggests it might be due a change in the sample’s breakdown. At the same time, there is no doubt that the race was always going to be a long shot for Democrats. Once Wicker would have a chance to introduce himself, run ads and benefit from the increasing partisan polarization of a presidential campaign season, he was bound to improve his numbers somewhat, which is exactly why Democrats were so hopeful this special election might be held in March. Wicker’s bounce might be due to his running extensive ads in the state; the DSCC has now jumped in to help Musgrove.

NV-03 is also an important House race, albeit one that has been developing only recently as Titus came to replace a Democrat who dropped out this spring. She is undoubtedly a strong candidate, and even though an internal poll has to be taken with a grain of salt, any incumbent at 39% has to be considered in huge trouble.


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Fifth presidential ratings: Florida’s first move

As the presidential race started to fall into place and we started getting a better idea of which candidate had the advantage in the key battleground states, the number of toss-up electoral votes shrank in each installment. Today, Michigan and Florida migrate back to the toss-up column, bringing it back up to 100 electoral votes - the highest since June 4th. In fact, this is Florida’s first move out of the “lean McCain” category. This might not be the wisest of moves given that Quinnipiac’s poll of the “Big Three” (FL, PA and OH) will be released in just a few hours and could very well contradict me, but it is Wednesday night so I cannot delay my presidential ratings any longer.

With 8 states with 100 electoral votes considered up for grabs, the election remains wide open - and the latest national polls showing a tight race attest to that. At the same time, this does not mean that the eletion is a toss-up. In fact, Obama’s advantage is the biggest it has been and now stands at 38 electoral votes. To make matters worse for the Republican, his base keeps eroding - a phenomenon we have seen week after week. Only 200 electoral votes are now rated in McCain’s column and his base (safe+likely) has also reached an all-time low of 165.

Soon, the two candidates will announce their vice-presidential picks and that alone is likely to provoke some changes in the ratings. Not all potential picks would transform the electoral equations in their state, but Richardson, Bayh, Crist or Pawlenty picks could lead to some changes in their respective states - at least temporarily. I am still not convinced Mitt Romney would have as dramatic an impact in Michigan as some say he would, but that could be another question mark we will have to keep an eye on.

Furthermore, it has now been quite a while that the Obama campaign has been running advertisements in staunchly red states that McCain has been ignoring (North Carolina is the main one, but also North Dakota, Montana, Alaska, Indiana and Georgia), allowing Obama to get his message out in a vacuum - the best situation for a politician to be in. For now, I have rated none of these states as a toss-up, but it goes without saying that McCain could soon have more to fear in those states than in states like Virginia and Colorado where he is playing defense. He might either have to invest his own resources here (divesting them from places like NM and CO) or a number of these states could move to the toss-up column.

Without further delay, here are the fourth 2008 electoral college ratings (states whose ratings have been changed are in bold). Remember that states that are in the “lean” category are still considered to be very competitive and certain to be hotly contested, but it is possible to say that one candidate has a slight edge at this time.

  • Safe McCain: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska (at large + 3rd congressional district), Oklahoma, South Carolina, Utah, Tennessee, West Virginia, Wyoming (90 EVs)
  • Likely McCain: Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Nebraska (1st and 2nd congressional districts), South Dakota, Texas (75 EVs)
  • Lean McCain: Alaska, Montana, Missouri, North Carolina, North Dakota (35 EVs)
  • Toss-up: Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Virginia (100 EV)
  • Lean Obama: Iowa, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin (45 EVs)
  • Likely Obama: Delaware, Maine (at-large, 2nd district), Minnesota, New Jersey, Washington (42 EVs)
  • Safe Obama: California, Connecticut, DC, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine’s 1st district, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont (151 EVs)

This gives us the following map and totals:

  • Safe + Likely Obama: 193 electoral votes
  • Safe + Likely + Lean Obama: 238
  • Toss-up: 100
  • Safe + Likely + Lean McCain: 200
  • Safe + Likely McCain: 165

I will naturally not attempt to provide an explanation for every single one of these ratings and will concentrate instead on those that have shifted over the past two weeks:

Florida, lean McCain to toss-up: Throughout the spring, Florida was widely considered like the one battleground state from the past 2 cycles that started off in the McCain column and one state in which Hillary Clinton would have performed stronger than Obama. Over the past few weeks, however, a combination of factors have led Florida to rejoin the group of toss-ups. First, polls have shown is back to being a toss-up. These ratings are not determined by a compilation of the latest polls, but it is impossible not to take into account all 3 polls released in July (ARG, PPP and Rasmussen) have found Obama ahead within the margin of error. That is a progression from this spring, when Obama was routinely crushed by McCain in polls from this state (see Pollster.com’s graph).

Second, Obama is undoubtedly benefiting from the superior Democratic organization over the past few months. Since the beginning of the year alone, new Democratic voting registrations have outpaced Republican ones 7:1 for an advantage of almost 100,000 voters… Groups are working hard to register former felons, whose voting rights are being restored. Furthermore, the Obama campaign is working hard at organizing in the state, contradicting some suggestions that they might be looking to pass on the Sunshine State. They already have 16 offices in the state, far ahead of where Gore and Kerry were at this stage in 2000 and 2004.

Finally, Obama is stronger among key Florida constituencies than Democrats previously feared. He does not look to be suffering from any sort of problem with Hispanic voters. His weakness among Latinos in the Democratic primaries combined with McCain’s relatively moderate profile on immigration led some to speculate McCain might score gains in that constituency, but poll after poll have shown Obama crushing McCain among Hispanics nationally by a bigger margin than in 2004. In Florida, Republicans are stronger among Hispanics because of the Cuban vote but McCain’s hopes to improve on Bush’s showing seems to be illusory. Another group among which Obama might not have quite as big a disadvantage as thought is Jewish voters - an important constituency in Florida. It looks like McCain is having his own problems with Jewish outreach.

Michigan, lean Obama to toss-up: Michigan stayed in the Obama column for only two weeks, with two changes in back-to-back ratings. I confess I might have been driven by polls more than I wanted to in my previous ratings: Rasmussen, Quinnipiac and PPP had all showed Obama opening a larger lead and that seemed to fit with Obama’s gains in other blue states like Wisconsin and Minnesota. However, polls over the past week have shown tighter races, with Quinnipiac and PPP both scaling back their findings to Obama leads within the margin of error. EPIC-MRA - the most reputable pollster in the state - also found a 2% race.

It has long looked that the McCain camp is intent on replacing Pennsylvania with Michigan as the large blue state it will contest the most strongly. The past few week shave shown very little to contradict that, with the McCain campaign concentrating ad buys, media campaigns and field organization on Michigan to an extent that was not seen by the Bush campaign in 2000 and 2004. In fact, the amount of buzz Mitt Romney is getting in the GOP veepstakes seems mainly driven by the belief in Republican circles (as summarized by Bob Novak last week) that Romney would make his ticket much stronger in Michigan. There is only so much money the McCain campaign can spend on the offensive and so it is likely to concentrate its money hitting only a few Kerry states - reserving the rest for the defense of the many endangered red states.

Michigan is likely to get a large share of whatever budget the GOP has to play offense, and that alone should guarantee that this state remains tight.

North Dakota, likely McCain to lean McCain: North Dakota thus joins Alaska and Montana as staunchly red states that have somehow found themselves competitive. The most recent ratings were devoted to the battle of the Mountain West. Just as in Montana (and Alaska, which is not the Mountain West but is part of the same type of strategic consideration), it is not just that Obama is polling much stronger than expected but he is actually airing ads in the state and backing that up with visits. Since my previous ratings, a Research 2000 poll came to confirm Rasmussen’s earlier finding of a tight race, and that corroboration is enough for me to take North Dakota to the next stage.

Special note on Indiana and New Hampshire: Some commentators protested some of my ratings two weeks ago, most notably those in Indiana and New Hampshire. In the latter state, McCain’s two primary victories were won not because of the GOP vote but because of independents; in fact, a surprising number of independents chose to vote for McCain rather than Obama (the only time during the primary season the two candidates were competing over the same voters), costing the Democrat a victory against Clinton. In the past two weeks, 2 out of 3 polls have found the race within the margin of error.

As for Indiana, it is true that Obama is running advertisements in the state and that is leading me to seriously consider moving the state to lean Republican. In fact, Georgia and Indiana are the only two states among the 18 the Obama campaign is contesting that are rated likely or safe Republican. Simply put, the state’s heavily Republican bent (Bush won by 21% in 2004) is keeping me from moving the state towards a more competitive category. It is true that I am now rating ND, AK and MT (all staunchly red states) as lean McCain; but there is now a number of polls from each of these states showing consistently tight races. On the other hand, there is very little information coming out of Indiana. A poll in June found Obama up by 1%, yes, but it was also the only poll from the state released in the past two months.

History of Campaign Diaries’ electoral ratings:

  • July 30th: + 38 Obama (238 for Obama [151 safe, 42 likely, 46 lean] and 200 for McCain [90 safe, 75 likely, 35 lean]
  • July 16th: +28 Obama (255 for Obama [150 safe, 43 likely, 62 lean] and 227 for McCain [90 safe, 78 likely, 59 lean]
  • July 2rd: +11 Obama (238 for Obama [143 safe, 50 likely, 45 lean] and 227 for McCain [93 safe, 78 likely, 56 lean])
  • June 18th: +22 Obama (238 for Obama [86 safe, 97 likely, 55 lean] and 216 for McCain [87 safe, 87 likely, 42 lean])
  • June 4th: +20 McCain (207 for Obama [76 base, 107 likely, 24 lean] and 227 for McCain [97 safe, 77 likely, 53 lean])

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In yet another negative ad, McCain hits Obama’s “celeb” status

The McCain campaign released a new spot today, and it is once again a negative ad aimed to define Obama by comparing him to Paris Hilton and Britney Spears (!) and play on the narrative of McCain hinted at in his previous spot, which accused Obama of canceling a visit to the troops because cameras were not accompanying him:

Is this the ad the Clinton campaign always dreamed of releasing but never dared to? Hillary was obviously frustrated by Obama’s star-appeal and tried to make it an issue by implying her opponent lacked substance - most famously in the “sky will open, the light will come down, celestial choirs will be singing” speech back in February. More specifically, the discrepancy between the sizes of Obama’s crowds and the election results were a theme we came back to repeatedly, particularly after New Hampshire.

Now, McCain is going all-out with a flashy (literally) ad that claims Obama is a celebrity - the “biggest in the world,” in fact - not a leader. He is in the league of personalities like Britney Spears and Paris Hilton, not of John McCain. The implications here are not only that there is nothing substantive about Obama’s candidacy and that he would be a dangerous choice in these dangerous times but the ad also plays on the elitism theme. Obama is associated with upper-class personalities that bear no resemblance with ordinary Americans - a strategy that the GOP successfully used against John Kerry. This was confirmed by a memo the McCain campaign released this afternoon in which they attack Obama’s habits even more directly:

Only a celebrity of Barack Obama’s magnitude could attract 200,000 fans in Berlin who gathered for the mere opportunity to be in his presence. These are not supporters or even voters, but fans fawning over The One. Only celebrities like Barack Obama go to the gym three times a day, demand “MET-RX chocolate roasted-peanut protein bars and bottles of a hard-to-find organic brew — Black Forest Berry Honest Tea” and worry about the price of arugula.

Yet, despite all of the fans, paparazzi and media adoration, the American people still have questions: Is Barack Obama prepared to lead? Is being famous the same as being a credible commander in chief?

Needless to say, the McCain campaign appears to have decided to go all out and attack Obama’s character. Given the accumulation of indicators that favor Democrats this year, McCain’s chance at victory is to make Obama look like too risky a choice for Americans to take, and the strategy the McCain campaign is using to get to that result is one that comes out of Bush’s 2004 playbook. In fact, a new study released this morning by the Wisconsin Advertising Project has found that over 90% of Obama’s ads have been positive versus only two thirds of McCain’s - hardly surprising given that McCain is running as the underdog. Obama’s response to McCain’s ad played on that fact:

You know, I don’t pay attention to John McCain’s ads, although I do notice he doesn’t seem to have anything to say very positive about himself. He seems to only be talking about me… You need to ask John McCain what he’s for and not just what he’s against.

So what effect could this latest ad have on the election? The spot will run in the 11 states McCain is running ads in, so it will be seen often by voters. And there are certainly risks of going negative. For one, a negative ad can always backlash if voters feel that a candidate is crossing the line. In fact, even some Republicans are distancing themselves from the accusations of the McCain campaign, which could certainly complicate McCain’s efforts to create a coherent line of attack. Beyond Chuck Hagel - who has effectively become an Obama ally, note Charlie Crist’s refusal to endorse McCain’s accusation that Obama would rather lose the war than the election and John Weaver’s tells Marc Ambinder that the “celeb” ad is “childish.” Weaver - ousted from McCain’s campaign last year but as much of a loyalist as any - calls these efforts “a mockery of a political campaign.”

Also, McCain’s change of tone is being increasingly noticed by the media, so much so that some news outlets have started writing articles that label McCain’s charges as lacking any evidence, for instance this front-page piece in the Washington Post today. Other outlets were even more direct over the week-end; NBC’s Andrea Mitchell, for instance, had clearly stated that Obama had never planned to take the press with him. In fact, the McCain campaign admitted today that there is little evidence for their claim that Obama backed out of the German visit because there would be no camera!

But there are also clear benefits to going negative - and this wave of ads could certainly impact the race. The GOP might be walking back its camera accusation, but only after days of their original charge airing in news reports and being covered in newspapers. Furthermore, the GOP appears committed to stick to these lines of attack and the memo I quoted above reads like a caricature of their talking-points: when a charge is really outrageous, something is bound to stick. Similar arguments worked for Clinton in the latter part of the primary and she certainly did not go at it as directly as Republicans are now. In the coming months, the GOP has further opportunities to play up this narrative. (I have suggested before that Obama might be making a strategic mistake by moving his convention address to a football stadium.)

The final danger for Obama is that the election does become entirely focused on him. As the NBC poll already suggested last week, voters are thinking far more about the Illinois Senator than his opponent. Right now, Obama is running ads about himself, and McCain is running ads about him as well. Not that many ads are running about McCain. That will surely frustrate some Democrats who remember John Kerry’s unwillingness to go after Bush in 2004 - just as the Obama camp seems far less willing to hit McCain more on 100 years, bomb Iran, the recent tax flip-flop and even his associations with Bush. Furthermore, most of these ads emphasize character, as Obama seeks to introduce himself and McCain is busy tearing him down.

What is the electorate going to think about, then? The building recession or who is more patriotic? Obama’s leadership qualities or McCain’s connections to the Bush Administration and his party label? However over-the-top McCain’s ads are, Democrats better figure out a way to address this problem soon.


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Down-the-ballot: Chaos in Alaska, Musgrave hit by independent group

It will take a while for the Alaska Senate race to settle, and we still aren’t close to knowing the full repercussions of Ted Stevens’s indictment. In fact, the situation is chaotic enough that it seems unlikely we will have a better idea of where the race stands until the state primary on August 26th. Whether Mark Begich heads into the fall favored to pick-up the seat depends on who runs against him and on whether the GOP gets to field a top-tier contender. As I explained yesterday, that will depend on (1) whether Stevens wins the primary and, if he does, (2) whether he agrees to drop-out.

This puts the GOP in quite a predicament: What Republicans need is for Ted Stevens to fight on, deny the charges until August 26th, survive the primary, and then suddenly change his tune and decide he cannot continue and must withdraw from the race. This is a plausible scenario, but it would require Stevens to be willing to cooperate with the NRSC, which is certainly not a given.

For now, Stevens issued a defiant statement vowing to “continue to move full steam ahead.” The Senator also affirmed his innocence: “I am innocent of these charges and intend to prove that.” In other words, Stevens is not giving up and will be actively contesting the primary. But it is simply too early to have a sense of where things stand and whether one of the lesser-known Republican challengers could really top the 40-year incumbent. A poll released last week by Ivan Moore had Stevens leading David Cuddy 70% to 20%. Stevens will certainly fall now, but will those shifting votes not divide themselves between the other candidates, starting with Vic Vickers who is launching a $750,000 TV campaign?

Another question mark facing Alaska Republicans is who could replace Ted Stevens on the ballot if he were to win the primary and then agree to withdraw: With many GOP figures in the state tarnished by corruption scandals, who could take on Begich and make it a race? Lieutenant Governor Steve Parnell is running in the House primary against embattled Rep. Don Young. If he wins that match-up, it is unlikely that the state GOP would allow him to switch races. (Parnell must be cursing himself for having chosen to challenge Young and not Stevens.)

Governor Sarah Palin would be a strong option for the GOP. Despite recent problems of her own, she is very popular in the state (80% in a poll released yesterday!). The race would start as a toss-up at worst for Palin. But today, Palin refused to call for Stevens’ resignation and said she had no interest in leaving the governorship to run for Senate. Her statement was certainly not Shermanesque - certainly the type of statement that is easily reversed (see Udall, Tom) - and she couldn’t possibly have said anything else so soon after Stevens’s downfall.

But there are reasons to believe Palin is not bluffing. For one, she was just elected to the Governor’s mansion last year and some politicians prefer running the state executive to being one of many Senators. Second, she has young children, including a 3-month baby, so perhaps she might not want to move everything around just now. At the same time, she might not have such an opportunity again for a while. Senator Lisa Murkowski was just elected for the first time in 2004, and it looks like there will be a new Senator elected this November. When will the next open seat come along? (That’s a question members of the Massachusetts’ House delegation have been asking themselves for almost 30 years.)

In other down-the-ballot news, CO-04 is living up to the promise of past cycles. Maryln Musgrave is a very controversial House member and a very conservative Republican that has under-performed the district’s GOP bent. In 04 and 06, independent groups attacked Musgrave with some memorable advertisements (most famously this 2004 ad of a Musgrave impersonator stealing from a soldier’s pocket). Now, it looks like Musgrave will be a target again. Here is the new ad Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund is running as independent expenditure:

This group is spending $175,000 to run this ad in the district’s media market - certainly not a negligible buy. In fact, the Defenders of Wildlife Action Fund appears to have already spent more than $400,000 hitting the incumbent Republican. That will go a long way towards shoring up negatives. Also, note how many ads are airing devoted to oil prices right now. All candidates are finding a way to blame their opponents for rising prices. McCain hit Obama on this, it is the subject of negative advertisement in the Kentucky Senate race, and so on.

If candidates from both parties and from all levels of government are blasting their opponents, won’t it make the attack lose all credilibility? Or will it mean that whoever wins the energy debate (whether Democrats tie the GOP closely enough to Big Oil or whether Republicans convince the public to vote on offshore drilling) can expect to gain significantly on all levels in the coming months?


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Tuesday polls: Obama ahead in PA, stable in NC; GOP leading in MI-07, NM-01

No state polls had been released for a few days, but after yesterday’s orgy of national surveys it’s back to business as usual in presidential polling: the tracking polls and state results of varying interest:

  • For the second day in a row, both tracking poll showed Obama’s national bounce fading. After a high on Saturday-Sunday, it’s back to usual for Rasmussen (47-46 Obama) and Gallup (47-41).
  • In North Carolina, PPP’s latest polling finds a tight race, with McCain holding on within the margin of error, 47% to 44%. He was ahead 45% to 41% last months. Obama gets 82% of the black vote, McCain 57% of the white vote (versus 34% for Obama).
  • In Pennsylvania, Obama is ahead 49% to 40% in Strategic Vision’s poll of the state since April. This is the first non-Rasmussen poll of the state in weeks. The previous Strategic Vision poll found McCain ahead by 8% here - but it was taken back in April…
  • In Washington, Strategic Vision confirms Obama’s advantage as the Democrat leads 48% to 37%.

As I have regretted many times, Pennsylvania polling has been rare but the few results we have gotten find Obama ahead more or less comfortably. As Michigan has usurped Pennsylvania’s status of most endangered Democratic big state, Republicans are not likely to put quite as much emphasis on PA as they did four years ago and Obama should be helped by the Democratic registration gains in the state. However, this is one state in which a weak showing for Obama among working class voters could cost him dearly.

As for North Carolina, the race has been stable for weeks, as nearly every poll that is released shows a McCain advantage between 3% and 5% (Civitas, SUSA and Rasmussen). I refer you back to my recent analysis of the risk and rewards of Obama’s red state strategy, as this poll confirms what we have been seeing for a while: Despite spending in the state whereas McCain is not, Obama is not progressing further - a relief for the GOP. However, Republicans were hoping that the state would go back to its GOP roots as the general election progressed, but that is clearly not happening. McCain will have to invest in North Carolina sooner or later and divest resources from elsewhere; if he doesn’t, it would put Obama in an ideal position to take away those 15 electoral votes.

In down-the-ballot races, one independent and four internal polls to report today:

  • PPP’s poll from North Carolina’s Senate race finds Elizabeth Dole slipping back under 50% and leading Kay Hagan 49% to 40%. Last month, after her first big wave of advertising, Dole led by 14%.
  • In Indiana, the Daniels campaign released an internal poll finding the incumbent Governor crushing his Democratic opponent 53% to 35%.
  • In MI-07, a race Democrats are targeting, GOP incumbent Walberg released an internal poll taken this month finding him ahead 47% to 31% - under 50% but a decent margin for a targeted incumbent.
  • His Democratic opponent quickly fired back with a poll finding him trailing by only 3%, 40% to 37% - certainly very dangerous waters for an incumbent. However, the poll was taken in May so it is not necessarily a good response to the Republican’s internal poll.
  • Another exchange of internal polls in NM-01. A few weeks ago, Democrat Martin Heinrich released a poll that found him to be ahead within the margin of error by 3%. Today, the campaign of Darren White released its own survey, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, showing the Republican leading 47% to 41%.

It will be difficult to know where the Dole-Hagan match-up is heading knowing all the massive spending that will go on in this race starting in September, as the DSCC has reserved $6 million worth of money - an investment the NRSC will be hard pressed to meet. Until then, polls give us a good idea of Dole’s vulnerability: She has been hovering around the double-digit and 50% thresholds for weeks now, not strong enough to be considered safe but not weak for the race to be a sure opportunity.

The Indiana gubernatorial race, meanwhile, could potentially become part of the Senate battle. If Obama picks Evan Bayh as his running-mate, the winner of this gubernatorial election will get to pick Bayh’s replacement. Some independent polls have found a tighter race than this internal poll, but Long Thompson does appear to have fallen behind since the May 6th primary. I moved the race to “lean retention” in my latest gubernatorial ratings.


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Senate shocker: Ted Stevens indicted, throws state race into chaos

In a huge development that is bound to have substantial repercussions on the Senate battle (and not necessarily all good for Democrats), Alaska Senator Ted Stevens has just been indicted on corruption charges. This race was ranked a toss-up in my latest rankings.

We have known for months that Stevens was under investigation for money he might have received from VECO, an oil company, in exchange for legislative favors. His house in Girdwood was raided last summer; shortly after, a VECO admitted in court, that employees of his company had worked on renovations of Stevens’s house and had bribed his son Ben. And that was followed by reports that the FBI had recorded phone conversations between said executive and Stevens. Today was thus the logical continuation of a process that started a long time ago, and the 7 indictment counts Stevens received today were related to his ties with VECO.

Stevens joined the Senate in 1968 and has been one of the chamber’s most powerful members ever since. That such an entrenched incumbent - and a Republican representing a conservative state - was struggling in his re-election race was of course due to the ethico-legal trouble he was in. In fact, the entire state GOP has been discredited by corruption investigations, including Rep. Don Young whose electoral prospects looked even bleaker than Stevens until today.

One thing that seems certain this afternoon is that Ted Stevens will not be part of the 111th Senate. He will either withdraw, be defeated in the primary or in the general election. Does that mean Democrats can count on a sure pick-up? Not necessarily, and here is where things get really complicated. The race might soon a likely Democratic pick-up, but there still are a lot of question marks that have to be answered.

Just as in the House race, Republicans would have a much greater chance at keeping the seat if a candidate who is not involved in a scandal came to replace their incumbent on the ballot for they could then rely on the state’s conservative leanings. (This is exactly what happened in 2006.) But here is the catch: Republicans might not be able to replace Stevens with a top-tier contender. The state’s filing deadline has already passed and there are 6 candidates running in the GOP primary: Ted Stevens and five lesser-known competitors. One of them has to win the August primary. 3 scenarios then:

    1) Stevens wins the primary and withdraws: Given that he has 5 competitors who will divide the anti-Stevens vote, this is a possibility. If he then withdraws his candidacy, it would allow the state party to pick a high-profile replacement (Kos has the relevant Alaska statute). In 2006, that would have allowed the GOP to start off favored. This year, it would make the election a toss-up: Mark Begich is strong enough that he would remain in the running against most Republicans, the entire state GOP is in a dismal state right now, and the GOP nominee will have a very late start.

      2) Stevens wins the primary and stays on the ballot: There is always the possibility that the famously hot-tempered Senator might refuse to withdraw his candidacy if he wins the primary and insists on staying on the ballot. That would probably be the GOP’s nightmare scenario: If Begich already looks to be slightly ahead of Stevens in the latest polls, it is impossible to imagine the incumbent winning against the Democrat in November.

        3) Stevens loses the primary: This would be the best scenario for Democrats. If one of the third-tier primary challengers wins, the state party would be stuck with that candidate (unless they can convince him to withdraw). Given that none of them have any political profile, Begich would start off as the clear favorite. The trouble for the GOP and the NRSC is that they can hardly rush to Stevens’s rescue at this point and help him beat his challengers in the primary.

        Because Stevens’s primary challengers are largely unknown, their chances of knocking down the incumbent are unclar. At least two challengers seem prepared to spend significant sums of their own money - though multiplicity of these candidates actually improves Stevens’ chances. One challenger, Vic Vickers, a businessman who just moved to Alaska in January (his connection to Alaska is that he hitchhiked through the state as a college student), had announced earlier this week that he was planning on spending $750,000  on TV ads. The first spot he released showed him standing in front of Stevens’s house and proclaiming: “I am Vic Vickers, and I’m running against Ted Stevens to stop corruption.” Another potentially threatening primary candidate is David Cuddy, a real estate developer who can put a lot of his own money in the race.

        Other races in the state: This development could have a great impact on the two other races of the state: The House contest and the presidential election. The GOP brand was already hurting, but that the most important Republican in the state’s history is now indicted, joining countless other state Republican lawmakers who are facing charges, will further tarnish the party’s image. That will boost Barack Obama’s efforts to pull a gigantic upset and pick-up this state. Obama has been spending money on ads here whereas McCain has been staying out.

        The same is true in the House race. Don Young’s association with Ted Stevens and the fact that he, too, could be indicted at any moment will help Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell beat him in the Republican primary. That would be a relief for the GOP, as Young has very little chance of surviving the general election against Democratic candidate Ethan Berkowitz. But this also improves the chances of Berkowitz to win the general election against Parnell, as the Democrat will be helped by the GOP’s dismal state. In very red OH-18 in 2006, Rep. Ney was dropped off the ballot in the fall but Democrat Zach Space won a resounding victory against his replacement.

        In fact, a poll of AK-AL was released today by Hays Research. It naturally does not incorporate the impact of today’s news, but gives us a useful pointer.

        • Parnell moves narrowly ahead of Young in the GOP primary, 45% to 42%.
        • In the general election, Hays Research did not even test a Berkowitz-Young contest. Against Parnell, the Democrat is actually narrowly ahead, 33% to 30% - but the huge number of undecided voters is a huge question mark.

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        VP watch: Speculation rises about Obama’s short list, with Kaine rising and Clinton fading

        The Olympics are approaching and the veepstakes speculation is reaching feverish pitch. That is somewhat paradoxical as some indicators over the past two days have been suggesting that both candidates are considering waiting a bit more to announce their picks after all and try to break through during the Olympics.

        There is of course a clear risk to doing so: Any high-profile announcement could be drowned by news from China. But postponing the decision also makes sense for both candidates: Obama is planning on taking a week long break in Hawaii. Announcing his vice-presidential pick just before he departs would allow his running-mate to take center stage for a few day. As for McCain, he would be giving up a key weapon (more control of timing) if he were to hurry into a choice.

        That said, other indicators suggest that Obama and McCain are very near to making a choice and that they have significantly narrowed their list. Sources in the McCain world have long been saying that the campaign has already completed a lot of its vetting and McCain has all the information to make up its mind whenever he wants. Yesterday, Obama met with most of his advisers and with his vetting team for more than 3 hours - quite an extended period of time to take off the campaign trail if it is not intended to resolve a number of issues and get closer to a decision.

        More detailed speculation over the past 48 hours has concentrated on the Democratic side and on Virginia Governor Tim Kaine. Not one but two articles were published in the past 24 hours - one yesterday afternoon in Politico and one this morning in the Washington Post - that described Kaine as being “very, very, very high on Obama’s short list” based on numerous interviews with people close to Obama’s campaign and members of Kaine’s entourage. Both Politico and The Post are well-sourced and well-connected and that they would both publish such an article within hours of each other speaks to the sure fact that Kaine is one of the finalists.

        This morning, both Obama and Kaine were in Washington DC, prompting speculation that a meeting had been organized between the two Democrats. (Think about that: Obama had a three hour VP meeting yesterday and might have met with one of his top choices less than a day later.) Kaine was one of the earliest Obama endorsers, and did so long before Obama had really broken through in his match-up against Hillary Clinton. Kaine and Obama are not only personally close, but Kaine embodies as close to post-partisanship a management style as Obama could want.

        However, both articles make it clear that Kaine’s being subjected to intense vetting means he has reached the final stages of the veepstakes, not that he is the only one there. While Politico has a few sources in hte Obama world, most of these leaks are coming from the Kaine camp, which explains why the stories are so fixated on one name. In fact, Marc Ambinder thinks that the outstanding level of buzz generated by leaks from the Kaine entourage are hurting the Virginia Governor compared to other contenders that aren’t leaking information. Politico’s report cites Joe Biden, Kathleen Sebelius and Sam Nunn; Marc Ambinder is hearing the most buzz about Kaine, Biden, Sebelius and Evan Bayh. This testifies to the stamp Obama wants to leave on the party, as all these names but Biden’s embody a similar post-partisanship positioning.

        Of the top-tier of Democratic contenders, two names are missing in this latest round of speculation: Chris Dodd and Hillary Clinton. In fact, Clinton’s star is decidedly fading. It was always clear that Obama did not want to pick his former rival and that he would only do so if polls indicated he had not succeeded in capturing Clinton’s electorate. While he does still have some trouble securing the Democratic base and there are still signs of discontent between the two camps, the problems do not seem to be wide-ranging enough for Obama to be forced to do something he does not want to do.

        Declarations made by Terry McAuliffe (as faithful a Clinton supporter as any) in recent days seemed to confirm that Clinton was not at the top of Obama’s list: McAuliffe declared Kaine would be his pick for VP and he suggested Clinton was planning on speaking Tuesday night at the convention - a day earlier than the running-mate will. The New York Times’s Adam Nagourney hardened the conventional wisdom yesterday with an article detailing the “mounting evidence” that Clinton is not being seriously considered by the Obama campaign.

        In fact, the Obama campaign might need to prepare itself to not enjoy a bounce when it selects the Democratic nominee if he/she is not Hillary. Once Clinton supporters realize that their former champion will not be on the ballot, a small number might temporarily withdraw its support for Obama in anger. I am not suggesting that this would be a lasting move or that Obama stands to , but that the temporary effects of the first impression (which is what a bounce is, after all) might be less positive than they would otherwise be because of this.

        On the Republican side, the conventional wisdom is still fixated on a two-way race between Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty and . That has been the consensus for many weeks now, and John Thune’s declaring a few days ago that he had not been asked to submit vetting documents shrunk the number of Republicans capable of contesting that even further (if Thune is telling the truth, that is). Over the past 48 hours, Pawlenty has gotten a lot more favorable press while Romney was hit this morning by a Washington Times article reiterating that a number of evangelicals are warning against a McCain-Romney ticket.

        Of course, we already know that a Romney pick could lead many conservatives to grumble, but that is not a welcome reminder at this crucial time in the veepstakes. In fact, campaigns routinely float trial names around to see the type of reception it will get and how interest groups will react; the strongly negative reactions sparked by Ann Veneman’s name circulating, for instance, are bound to have an effect. In fact, a new name was just added to the Republican veepstakes: Fed Ex executive Fred Smith, whose name started circulating yesterday with odd timing. The perfect example of a trial balloon?

        I dropped three names from the top-tier since yesterday (Thune, Edwards and Clinton) and added to the long-shot list. That gets us to the following new exhaustive list for Republicans:

        • Top-tier: Crist, Portman, Pawlenty, Romney
        • Second-tier: Fiorina, Jindal, Palin, Ridge, Sanford, Thune, Whitman
        • Long shots: Bloomberg, Cantor, Cox, Graham, Huckabee, Hutchinson, Kasich, Lieberman, Perdue, Fred Smith, Snowe

        And for Democrats:

        • Top-tier: Bayh, Biden, Dodd, Kaine, Nunn, Reed, Sebelius
        • Second-tier: Casey, Clark, Clinton, Dashle, Chet Edwards, John Edwards, Hagel, Rendell, Richardson,
        • Long shots: Bloomberg, Jones, McCaskill, Napolitano, Bill Nelson, Schweitzer, Veneman, Warner

        Most recent VP headlines:

        • July 27th: Veepstakes are entering their last stretch
        • July 18th: Is Chet Edwards joining the top-tier, and who is McCain vetting?
        • July 11th: A pointer on the Democratic veeptakes
        • July 7th double-shocker: Webb’s stunning exit and Crist’s marriage
        • All coverage for Democrats and Republicans

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        McCain grabs national lead for the first time in three months

        What an an unexpected twist! Not only were we waiting for signs of an Obama bounce, but the signs had actually come over the week-end, as Obama jumped up to his biggest lead ever in Gallup’s tracking poll. Who would have expected that this would be the moment McCain would be able to break a long losing streak and grab his first lead in national poll since an early May survey that had him ahead by 1%? (How big a streak McCain just interrupted is evident with a quick look at RCP’s list of all national polls.)

        The icing on the cake for the McCain campaign is that this poll was conducted by Gallup, as reputable a name among American pollsters as any. (Note: This poll was conducted for USA Today and is not today’s edition of Gallup’s tracking poll.) However, McCain only leads among likely voters:

        • From a 6% deficit last month, McCain is now leading 49% to 45% among likely voters. Among registered voters, Obama leads 47% to 44% - down from a 6% lead last month.
        • The poll was taken over the week-end.

        That said, a number of other national polls released today found Obama staying clearly ahead, suggesting that the USA Today poll is more the exception to the consistent but narrow Obama lead we have been seeing for weeks:

        • First, Gallup’s tracking poll finds Obama leading 48% to 40%, a one point decline since yesterday but the biggest lead Obama has had in the tracking poll since March except for yesterday.
        • Rasmussen’s tracking poll, on the other hand, finds Obama leading only 48% to 45%, down from 6% two days ago and 5% yesterday.
        • The fourth poll taken over the week-end is Research 2000’s first national poll: It finds Obama leading 51% to 39% with 3% to Bob Barr and 2% to Ralph Nader. The poll tested likely voters. An interesting finding is that the biggest regional swing in the past 4 years is the Midwest, where Obama now leads 53% to 37%, a 17% swing. Given the high concentration of battlegrounds in this region, Obama would surely win the election if he were to gain more in the Midwest than in the rest of the country.
        • Two other national polls were released today but were taken early last week, making them a bit less valuable at a time in which the timeliness of surveys seems more important than usual. First, a Democracy Corps poll taken from the 21st to the 24th finds Obama leading 50% to 45%, 48% to 42% if Barr and Nader are included.
        • A YouGov poll for The Economist finds Obama leading 41% to 38%. This one was taken from the 22nd to the 24th.

        So what should we make of the USA Today/Gallup poll if 5 other polls today found Obama with a lead ranging from 3% to 12%? Gallup’s results itself are not what is interesting here: McCain’s lead is within the margin of error, it is only one isolated poll among many and the lead is limited to the likely voter model. (Gallup’s editor says “registered voters are much more important at the moment,” though the poll does go against the conventional wisdom that Democrats are much more enthusiastic this year).

        But the psychological effect of a poll like this cannot be overstated: For McCain to come out with this lead in what is perhaps the most important national poll at the height of Obama’s media coverage must be a huge relief for Republicans, and it kills any building media narrative of an Obama bounce out of the international trip, whatever other polls find in the coming days. The GOP desperately needs to get energized to have a chance at keeping the White House, and for that it first and foremost needs to believe that it can win.

        Furthermore, that McCain is performing much stronger than he ought to on paper and that he is holding on in battleground states like Ohio and Michigan despite slipping among his base states has long been documented, including on this blog. This USA Today/Gallup’s poll might find that phenomenon to be much larger than in other polls, but it does feed the storyline of Obama not breaking through no matter how strong his weeks are. That the numbers appear to be tightening once more in the tracking polls strengthen that narrative further.


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        Senate: Ad wars heat up, Bloomberg helps Landrieu

        Senate races are getting increasingly heated and that is spilling over on the airwaves, as we saw last week with Norm Coleman’s attack on Al Franken and Franken’s quick response. Today, Colorado’s Mark Udall started airing an ad of his own, a response to an attack ad released by an independent group that informed voters that they did not “know Udall.”

        Udall rejects the accusation that he has raised taxes, pointing out he has lowered them 65 times and hitting Bob Schaffer for his ties to loosely-defined “special interests.” With the electorate very discontent and with the job ratings of the White House and of Congress at abysmal lows, many candidates in either party will try to run as Washington outsiders, no matter who they are running against and how many years they themselves spent in Washington. It is true that Mark Udall is better positioned than most given the scandals that have hit Schaffer over the past few months, associating him with convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff.

        But it is on the energy issue that these two candidates have hit each other on their ties to “special interests.” Schaffer is now running on his support for oil drilling and ANWR (as are many Republicans), while Udall has long been an advocate of environmental causes and devoted one of first ads to environmental issues. Udall and Schaffer have sought to portray each other as beholden to the environmental and Big Oil lobbies - the kind of campaign that is bound to heat up considerably and also the kind of campaign in which any further public opinion shift towards drilling could help the GOP candidate.

        Speaking of Big Oil… energy issues are also heating up the Kentucky Senate race, in which Mitch McConnell already went up with an attack ad against opponent Bruce Lunsford. The ad blames Lunsford for being responsible for a raise in the gas tax, with “ordinary” Kentuckyians repeating “Thanks, Bruce” at the pump:

        Lunsford just released its own response ad, quoting Kentucky newspapers to blast McConnell’s ad as dishonest and hitting the incumbent Senator right back for his own responsibility in the rising price of oil. It is hard to know what to make of this early back-and-forth. For McConnell to air a negative ad against his lesser-known opponent this early is a sure sign that McConnell is taking Lunsford’s as a threat, which is encouraging news for the DSCC. On the other hand, this serves as a reminder of the huge war chest McConnell has accumulated (more than $9 million), allowing him to spend freely and attempt to drown Lunsford because he can introduce himself to voters. The Democratic candidate can self-fund his race, but he will have trouble resisting McConnell’s spending pace.

        Another race in which a candidate is trying to claim the outsider mantle is Oklahoma. State Senator Andrew Rice started airing his first ad last week (you can view it here). It is a biographical spot in which Rice (a Democrat running in a very Republican state in a presidential year) is trying to introduce himself in a way that will satisfy the state’s conservative electorate. Rice mentions his faith, his years as a Christian missionary and the fact that his brother died in the World Trade Center on 9/11 (Republicans are apparently not the only ones who refer to 9/11 in non sequiturs). Rice concludes by saying he wants to change the ways of Washington.

        In other words, an ad that a candidate from either party could have run, with no mention of party affiliation or who Rice is running against. The theme is change, outsider status, and independence. None of this is surprising, of course (after all, it is Oklahoma), but Rice will have to attack Senator Inhofe more frontally in the coming weeks. Running as an nonthreatening young outsider could work in an open seat, but Inhofe is a fairly entrenched (though not entirely popular) incumbent. Whether or not Rice can go that extra step will depend on money and whether Chuck Schumer is interested in spending any resources on Oklahoma airwaves.

        In non-ad related Senate news, New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg continues his quest to build a national centrist movement. He is now planning to hold a fund-raiser for endangered Louisiana Senator Mary Landrieu. Said Bloomberg’s spokesperson: “He doesn’t agree with her on every issue, but she is a moderating voice in the Senate, and he appreciates the way she works across party lines.” John Kennedy, Landrieu’s Republican opponent, fired back with a press release entitled “Latest Landrieu Endorsement: Gun-Grabbing Liberal Mike Bloomberg:” “Now Mary Landrieu is raising money at the Manhattan townhouse of anti-gun, pro-gay marriage liberal Mayor Mike Bloomberg.”

        Bloomberg thus continues playing both sides of the aisle, as he has met both Obama and McCain in recent months and is helping down-the-ballot candidates of both parties. There is a fine line between being non-partisan and appearing opportunistic, as Bloomberg’s flirtations with both presidential candidates often look. From Landrieu’s perspective, meanwhile, there is a lot to gain from portraying a moderate image as she is running in one of the only states in the country that is still trending Republican. Bloomberg is too culturally liberal to help Landrieu burnish her moderate credentials, though he is certainly not well known enough for Kennedy’s attempt to make him into a liability to hurt her.


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        McCain plays up Obama’s canceled event, shifts his argument on Iraq

        As Obama’s latest national numbers are rising, Republicans are clearly worried that Obama significantly shifted the electorate’s impression of him. I explained two nights ago that McCain’s increasingly negative tone, his new ad and his attacks on Obama’s character indicate that his campaign is worried that it needs to up the volume to play on voters’ doubts about Obama and cut whatever advantage he might have gained this week.

        Yesterday, McCain continued in that vein by focusing on foreign policy and stepping up his attacks on Obama’s trip. On ABC, he harassed Obama for having canceled that now (in)famous visit to wounded troops in Germany: “Those troops would have loved to see him, and I know of no Pentagon regulation that would’ve prevented him from going there.”

        This was the main novel attack of McCain’s ad released on Saturday. I still question how effective this charge could be for voters who just see the ad and have no idea what the canceled visit is referring to. Can the ad’s sarcastic’s tone (”It seems the Pentagon wouldn’t allow cameras…”) appeal to those who don’t have a prior sense of what is going on and don’t already share the contempt of McCain operatives? And I am still amazed that this is being made into a controversy given the clear evidence that the trip was canceled when the Pentagon intervened at the last minute to tell Obama that he could not take the staff he has wit him because they were part of his campaign. First Read confirms that this had nothing to do with the press:

        NBC’s Andrea Mitchell reports that there was never a plan for Obama to take the press to Landstuhl. The plan was to go with his military aide, retired General Scott Gration. The Pentagon said Gration was off-limits because he had joined the campaign — violating rules that it not be a political stop. Obama had gone to see wounded troops in Iraq earlier in the week, without even confirming he’d been there. No press, no pictures. He has done the same when he goes to Walter Reed — never any press.

        Senators Reid and Hagel were quick to denounce McCain’s line of attack today and the Obama campaign accused McCain, an “honorable man,” of running a “dishonorable campaign. (On a side note, Chuck Hagel’s increasingly prevalent role as an Obama surrogate confirms Hagel’s growing hostility towards his former friend John McCain and Obama will be able to benefit greatly from this given Hagel’s profile as a conservative Republican who has shown few signs of hostility towards his party beyond the Iraq issue. In fact, the fact that Hagel hasn’t even endorsed Obama makes his rebuking McCain an even more powerful weapon in Obama’s arsenal.)

        In an instructive article published today on Politico, Ben Smith and Jonathan Martin take a closer look at McCain’s character strategy and the GOP’s increasingly powerful temptation to play on the online smears that have been circulating about Obama. McCain’s latest ad evokes a recent debunked e-mail recanted by its author sent around accusing Obama of having “shunned” the troops in Afghanistan. The article also quotes a Clinton voter saying she could not support Obama because she questions the fact that he is “a true American,” perhaps because “of his name.”

        As McCain steps up his attacks on Obama’s character, however, his attacks on Obama’s Iraq policies are getting increasingly muddied because the Arizona Senator is shifting his argument on the issue. On Friday, McCain called a 16-month plan a “pretty good timetable.” On Sunday, he denied that he had endorsed an Obama-style timetable. What gives? McCain no longer appears to be focusing on the argument that withdrawal would lead to chaos and civil war (Maliki endorsing Obama’s timetable makes that claim politically more difficult).

        McCain appears to be downplaying his opposition to timetables (which is by itself a victory for Obama); his argument is reduced to the claim that he would be attentive to conditions on the ground whereas Obama would not and would stick to 16-months no matter what is happening in Iraq. Thus, McCain both fudges his position to imply he favors some kind of withdrawal plan (as Heather Wilson suggested last week and as McCain did too on Friday by talking about a “pretty good timetable”) and he plays up the contrast between pragmatism and ideology.

        This ignores most of what Obama has said on the subject, as the Illinois Senator talks about these ground conditions just as much as McCain and seems more willing to adapt his timetable than the anti-war movement would like him to be. (You might remember that he joined Clinton and Edwards in refusing to have all troops out by 2013 at a Democratic debate this fall.)

        Practically, then, McCain is leaving increasingly little space between himself and Obama on the one issue that is supposed to define him the most, the issue he is the most comfortable talking about - a turnaround that would have been quite unpredictable just a few months ago. With McCain ceding so much ground on Iraq, what does he have left to draw a contrast between himself and Obama? By taking issues like the appropriateness of talking about withdrawal off the table, McCain will be forced to spend more time on issues like Afghanistan and the economy. Unless, that is, his plan is to get issues out of the way and make the election entirely a contrast of character and biography. McCain’s comments over the past week are certainly a step in that direction.

        Republicans have long been looking to make the election a referendum about Obama, and it looks like the McCain campaign has decided to embrace that strategy. How far will they go - and how far will McCain (who did denounce the Swift Boat ads in 2004, after all) take this?



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        Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

        Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

        Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

        Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

        Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

        Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

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          Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

          Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
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        • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

          Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
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        • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

          Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
        • Confusion in Connecticut (Updated)

        • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

          Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
        • Results thread, part 2: Dems suffer staggering losses in House and legislatives races, limit damage in statewide races

        • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

          Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
        • Election Night results thread: Rep. Boucher’s fall first surprise of the night

        • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

          Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
        • Election night cheat sheet

        • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

          Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
        • Final ratings: Democrats brace for historic losses

        • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

          Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

          Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
        • What to watch for down-ballot

        Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

        Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

        Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

        Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

        Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

        Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

        Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

        Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

        Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

        Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

        Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

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