Comments on: Presidential polls: The solidifying Democratic base http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/06/27/presidential-polls-the-solidifying-democratic-base/ Obsessive political analysis Wed, 17 Mar 2010 00:56:59 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: Big Tex http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/06/27/presidential-polls-the-solidifying-democratic-base/comment-page-1/#comment-4607 Big Tex Fri, 27 Jun 2008 19:38:58 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=932#comment-4607 Just wanted to chime in regarding the Texas Lyceum poll - Zoot mentioned my concerns about the possibility that Dems and Hispanics were oversampled for that poll. Hispanics are about 35% of the state's population and growing, but unfortunately don't turn out in the same proportions on election day. That may be partly because the state has a relatively large illegal immgrant population that isn't eligible to vote, but also possibly due to voter apathy. That could change in this election cycle with Rick Noriega running for US Senate, and the immigration issue at the forefront. But going by previous election cycles, the Lyceum poll, which had Hispanics at 35%, probably oversampled them by several points at least. And Democrats appeared to have been oversampled by at least 10 points, possibly more, unless there has been some dramatic change in party affiliation since the last election. Things are starting to turn around down here for Democrats, but probably not to that extent yet. Just wanted to chime in regarding the Texas Lyceum poll - Zoot mentioned my concerns about the possibility that Dems and Hispanics were oversampled for that poll. Hispanics are about 35% of the state’s population and growing, but unfortunately don’t turn out in the same proportions on election day. That may be partly because the state has a relatively large illegal immgrant population that isn’t eligible to vote, but also possibly due to voter apathy. That could change in this election cycle with Rick Noriega running for US Senate, and the immigration issue at the forefront. But going by previous election cycles, the Lyceum poll, which had Hispanics at 35%, probably oversampled them by several points at least. And Democrats appeared to have been oversampled by at least 10 points, possibly more, unless there has been some dramatic change in party affiliation since the last election. Things are starting to turn around down here for Democrats, but probably not to that extent yet.

]]> By: fritz http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/06/27/presidential-polls-the-solidifying-democratic-base/comment-page-1/#comment-4606 fritz Fri, 27 Jun 2008 17:21:07 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=932#comment-4606 As mentioned by someone in an earlier post we should look at current polls from flooded states (IA & MO) with some caution. To me an even more interesting question is the impact of what the Bush administration will do to rebuild after the flooding ends. If they poor a ton of money into these states to avoid the image problem they suffered post Katrina then other states that suffer natural disasters this summer will expect the same treatment and states that have been treated badly in the past, i.e. LA, will be angry and assume (correctly?) the aid is to help McCain. As Obama moves to the center, i.e. the FISA vote, the left will feel abused but it's his best move to compete for those pesky independent voters. I agree Obamas vote is solidifying and McCains is not. I think this is because of McCains truely awful campaign and not Obamas speechmaking or great image. As mentioned by someone in an earlier post we should look at current polls from flooded states (IA & MO) with some caution. To me an even more interesting question is the impact of what the Bush administration will do to rebuild after the flooding ends. If they poor a ton of money into these states to avoid the image problem they suffered post Katrina then other states that suffer natural disasters this summer will expect the same treatment and states that have been treated badly in the past, i.e. LA, will be angry and assume (correctly?) the aid is to help McCain.
As Obama moves to the center, i.e. the FISA vote, the left will feel abused but it’s his best move to compete for those pesky independent voters. I agree Obamas vote is solidifying and McCains is not. I think this is because of McCains truely awful campaign and not Obamas speechmaking or great image.

]]> By: Jim W http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/06/27/presidential-polls-the-solidifying-democratic-base/comment-page-1/#comment-4605 Jim W Fri, 27 Jun 2008 15:56:14 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=932#comment-4605 jaxx raxor, Your points are well taken. The comparison with Reagan/Obama is a bit of a stretch, but I don't mind the stretching. McCain is being seen by many as Bush III, which is unpopular to about 65% of the nation. I think Carter's popularity was not as bad, but Reagan was able to maximize it to his best of ability. McCain is definitely a maverick, and I believe he's an improvement over Bush because he's willing to listen and compromise. So again, I agree with your position. Gun rights vs. Gun Control is not mutually exclusive, although both extremes will say it is. I'm definitely for gun control due to a personal family tragedy, but I also believe that the main culprit is a lack of education on gun safety. jaxx raxor,

Your points are well taken. The comparison with Reagan/Obama is a bit of a stretch, but I don’t mind the stretching. McCain is being seen by many as Bush III, which is unpopular to about 65% of the nation. I think Carter’s popularity was not as bad, but Reagan was able to maximize it to his best of ability. McCain is definitely a maverick, and I believe he’s an improvement over Bush because he’s willing to listen and compromise. So again, I agree with your position.

Gun rights vs. Gun Control is not mutually exclusive, although both extremes will say it is. I’m definitely for gun control due to a personal family tragedy, but I also believe that the main culprit is a lack of education on gun safety.

]]> By: Jaxx Raxor http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/06/27/presidential-polls-the-solidifying-democratic-base/comment-page-1/#comment-4604 Jaxx Raxor Fri, 27 Jun 2008 14:44:08 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=932#comment-4604 Ronald Reagan, despite me disagreeing with him strongly politically, was truly a trasformative figure. I know why the GOP idolizes him at every turn. However Reagan probably had it easier in 1980 and 1984 than Obama has now. For one, in 1980, Reagon was running against a unpopular incumbent, which overturned any fears that the electorate had that he was too much of a cowboy or too dangerous to be commander in chief. If Obama was running against George Bush he would probably win by the same eletoral margin that Reagan won against Jimmy Carter, but Obama is not running against an incumbent but against a "maverick" Republican so his own weakeness are more apparent than what Reagan had. Of course, in 1984, Reagan was an incumbent and he faced an extremely weak Democratic candidate and a booming ecnomny despite record deficits. While the electoral vote only leans slightly to Obama, I do think that it is likely that Obama will win the popular vote, as he doing much better than previous Democrats in safe GOP states like Missisipi, Lousisana, and even Wyoming and doing much better in light democratic states like Washington and Minnesota. There is a very good chance that if Obama loses the election that he would have done so despite winning the popular vote. On a third note, we probably going to want to see how hard the GOP hits Obama on gun rights now that the Supreme Court has decided that there is an individual right to bear arms. We all know how this issued bedeveled both Al Gore and John Kerry (althrough both men came very close to winning the presidency) and if McCain can paint Obama as extremely hostile to gun rights then Obama will have a hard time winning the election no matter how unpopular Bush and the Republican party is. This is one issue in which Democrats have to cave in to if they want to win in the midwest and moutain states. Ronald Reagan, despite me disagreeing with him strongly politically, was truly a trasformative figure. I know why the GOP idolizes him at every turn. However Reagan probably had it easier in 1980 and 1984 than Obama has now. For one, in 1980, Reagon was running against a unpopular incumbent, which overturned any fears that the electorate had that he was too much of a cowboy or too dangerous to be commander in chief. If Obama was running against George Bush he would probably win by the same eletoral margin that Reagan won against Jimmy Carter, but Obama is not running against an incumbent but against a “maverick” Republican so his own weakeness are more apparent than what Reagan had. Of course, in 1984, Reagan was an incumbent and he faced an extremely weak Democratic candidate and a booming ecnomny despite record deficits.

While the electoral vote only leans slightly to Obama, I do think that it is likely that Obama will win the popular vote, as he doing much better than previous Democrats in safe GOP states like Missisipi, Lousisana, and even Wyoming and doing much better in light democratic states like Washington and Minnesota. There is a very good chance that if Obama loses the election that he would have done so despite winning the popular vote.

On a third note, we probably going to want to see how hard the GOP hits Obama on gun rights now that the Supreme Court has decided that there is an individual right to bear arms. We all know how this issued bedeveled both Al Gore and John Kerry (althrough both men came very close to winning the presidency) and if McCain can paint Obama as extremely hostile to gun rights then Obama will have a hard time winning the election no matter how unpopular Bush and the Republican party is. This is one issue in which Democrats have to cave in to if they want to win in the midwest and moutain states.

]]> By: Jim W http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/06/27/presidential-polls-the-solidifying-democratic-base/comment-page-1/#comment-4603 Jim W Fri, 27 Jun 2008 13:54:22 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=932#comment-4603 I don't think the United States has had a candidate with such a broad appeal and leadership since Ronald Reagan. Reagan and his cronies used the same strategy in 1980 and 1984 to appeal to the entire electorate instead of limiting their resources to a select few areas. However, comparing now to Reagan's years are like comparing apples and oranges, but the premise was that the US wanted change, and change is what it got. Obama looks like he'll flip NM, IA and CO. OH should also flip. I think MO will end up flipping too. I do not believe FL or any other state in the South will flip once the Republican machine starts spinning facts and placing blame on the US congress for "perceived failures". However, the 50 state strategy is the way to go, and Obama will end up expanding the playing field for the Dems in a way we haven't seen since LBJ. We will see about 25 house seats flip, and I think when it's all over the Dems will definitely pick up VA, CO, NM, and NH in the senate, and will end up taking 3 more from places such as OR, MN, NC, TX, MS, AL, KY, ME and NC. To sum it up, Obama takes the White House, the Dems will have a 58-42 advantage in the Senate, and a 261-174 advantage in the House, which is about where we stood in 1992. I don’t think the United States has had a candidate with such a broad appeal and leadership since Ronald Reagan. Reagan and his cronies used the same strategy in 1980 and 1984 to appeal to the entire electorate instead of limiting their resources to a select few areas.

However, comparing now to Reagan’s years are like comparing apples and oranges, but the premise was that the US wanted change, and change is what it got.

Obama looks like he’ll flip NM, IA and CO. OH should also flip. I think MO will end up flipping too. I do not believe FL or any other state in the South will flip once the Republican machine starts spinning facts and placing blame on the US congress for “perceived failures”. However, the 50 state strategy is the way to go, and Obama will end up expanding the playing field for the Dems in a way we haven’t seen since LBJ. We will see about 25 house seats flip, and I think when it’s all over the Dems will definitely pick up VA, CO, NM, and NH in the senate, and will end up taking 3 more from places such as OR, MN, NC, TX, MS, AL, KY, ME and NC.

To sum it up, Obama takes the White House, the Dems will have a 58-42 advantage in the Senate, and a 261-174 advantage in the House, which is about where we stood in 1992.

]]> By: zoot http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/06/27/presidential-polls-the-solidifying-democratic-base/comment-page-1/#comment-4602 zoot Fri, 27 Jun 2008 09:33:13 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=932#comment-4602 Texas Lyceum: http://www.texaslyceum.org/aboutus.aspx. Seems to be a long-established bi-partisan civic organization dedicated to identifying and training community leaders across Texas. While the Lyceum has been around since 1980, its relatively new to polling. From the website: "The Texas Lyceum has committed to annual probability samples of the state of Texas to bolster its understanding of public opinion on crucial policy issues. The professional rationale for the Texas Lyceum Poll is straightforward: a non-partisan, high quality, scientific survey designed to provide (1) specific data points on issues of interest, and (2) a time series of key demographics, attitudes, and opinions. Towards this end, we hope the trademark of the Texas Lyceum Poll will be transparency. Top-line and detailed cross-tabular results of each poll will be made available on the Texas Lyceum website, and the weighted data sets will be made available to the user community around the time of the Lyceum’s annual public conference. " One Dem blog says that both Dems and Hispanics were over-sampled, and that the poll should be taken 'with a grain of salt'. http://theold18.typepad.com/the_old_eighteen/2008/06/texas-lyceum-po.html Texas Lyceum: http://www.texaslyceum.org/aboutus.aspx.

Seems to be a long-established bi-partisan civic organization dedicated to identifying and training community leaders across Texas. While the Lyceum has been around since 1980, its relatively new to polling.

From the website:

“The Texas Lyceum has committed to annual probability samples of the state of Texas to bolster its understanding of public opinion on crucial policy issues. The professional rationale for the Texas Lyceum Poll is straightforward: a non-partisan, high quality, scientific survey designed to provide (1) specific data points on issues of interest, and (2) a time series of key demographics, attitudes, and opinions. Towards this end, we hope the trademark of the Texas Lyceum Poll will be transparency. Top-line and detailed cross-tabular results of each poll will be made available on the Texas Lyceum website, and the weighted data sets will be made available to the user community around the time of the Lyceum’s annual public conference. ”

One Dem blog says that both Dems and Hispanics were over-sampled, and that the poll should be taken ‘with a grain of salt’. http://theold18.typepad.com/the_old_eighteen/2008/06/texas-lyceum-po.html

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