Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton held their first joint event today in Unity, New Hampshire, a location no doubt chosen to allow journalists to come up with countless clever puns in their headlines. This event was crucial to the future of both Democrats. Obama absolutely needs the firm support of the Clinton wing of the party, while Hillary cannot afford to be seen as tepid in her embrace of her former rival.
The purpose of the event was quite obvious: create a photo-op that would showcase party reconciliation. Aware of the importance of this event, Clinton and Obama had choreographed its every moment, with the two candidates entering together to a thunderous ovation and making their way very slowly towards the stage — all of this, of course, airing live on every cable network. The two Democrats made sure to look physically very comfortable with one another, hugging, touching and whispering to each other numerous times. All of it drawn out, of course, to allow photographers ample time to take the pictures that will be on the frontpage of newspapers across the country tomorrow.
While even Clinton’s June 7th speech contained some elements of nostalgia and reminiscence, there was no hint of that in today’s speech: Clinton made sure to show that she was entirely projecting herself towards the future. She sent an unequivocal message to her supporters that she is committed to electing Barack Obama. “Unity is not only a beautiful place, it’s a wonderful feeling, isn’t it?” said Clinton to start off her speech, before launching into a rousing call for unity. She called on all Democrats to remember how important this election is and that both her and Obama stand for the same values and priorities: “We have to make it a priority in our lives to elect Barack Obama the next president of the United States. (…) We are a family, and we have an opportunity now to really demonstrate clearly we do know what’s at stake, and we will do whatever it takes to win back this White House.”
With some Clinton supporters holding off making their support for Obama, Clinton could be a tremendous help for the Illinois Senator. “To anyone who voted for me and is now considering not voting or voting for Senator McCain, I strongly urge you to reconsider,” Clinton said. If she manages to convincingly argue that she is not holding back and that she is fully committed to electing her former rival (and there was no suggestion today that she was anything but passionately devoted to his victory), it could push a significant number of those still reluctant to rally behind Obama back to the Democratic column. As I have already noted, Obama would be nearly unbeatable if he solidifies the Democratic base, and Clinton is one of the keys he needs to accomplish that. And he responded to her speech with equal grace, repeating “she rocks” and praising her fire and her motivation to help the country.
Today’s event amounted to an audition for her potential as Obama’s VP pick: If Hillary becomes Obama’s running-mate, there will be many events just as today’s. How would they do?
Clinton performed as well as she could have hoped to, offering a rousing endorsement of the Illinois Senator while also hitting his Republican opponent. She went after John McCain, proving that she would not hesitate to be an attack dog — a vice-presidential candidate’s primary role — and an effective one at that given her high-profile. Most importantly, she demonstrated that she would not hesitate to fully embrace Obama and that made the biggest advantage of an Obama-Clinton ticket plainly obvious:
Any VP is expected to sing the praises of the candidate at the top of the ticket, so how effective can it be when John Edwards or Joe Lieberman call on voters to choose John Kerry or Al Gore? But Clinton delivering the slightest compliment on the Illinois Senator immediately becomes a national event. After a very harsh primary and with few people suspecting Hillary to have fond feeling for the Illinois Senator, it is an extraordinary sight to see her standing at the podium, seemingly passionate about electing the man she sought to crush just a month ago. And when she defends Obama on any issue, it automatically becomes much more credible because it doesn’t come from someone who is an obvious supporter of Obama.
This, however, also points to the drawback of a Clinton pick: Would it not dilute the rockstar effect of Obama-Clinton events and of Clinton praising Obama to have the two share the ticket? Obama can always draw on Clinton in the next few months, and today demonstrated that he will earn headlines and hours of free cable media anytime he wants to do so, giving him an ideal way to control any news cycle. And his first event with Bill Clinton will likely be as big a media circus as today’s was. But how many time can Obama get away with this? After how many joint events will no one care anymore? And after how many high-profile live speeches will Clinton’s words become entirely expected? To preserve his ability to make events with Clinton a big deal, Obama might want to minimize the number of joint appearances and thus make them more precious.
It is difficult to know how these two sides balance out. After today’s event, I tend to think that the sight of Clinton passionately praising Obama is so extraordinary that it will not dilute so easily, and that the odd couple dynamic that it would inject in the race would be much greater than I would have thought just this morning. This is not something that any other running-mate could offer Obama, and while other Democrats might be generally more suited to appealing to blue-collar voters and Reagan Democrats than Clinton is, I am not sure that is true under present circumstances.
Yet, one question remains: Are the Clintons and the Obamas really ready to make up? However much unity, happiness and intimacy the candidate and the former candidate displayed today (coupled with news that both couples had donated the maximum of $4600 to the other campaign in the past 24 hours), there are still signs of divisions. ABC and Howard Fineman both report that many bigtime Clinton donors are not accepting Obama and that the meeting organized between the Democratic nominee and Clinton’s fundraisers did not go as well as it was hoped last week.
I am glad that Obama and Clinton can come together for a common cause–the welfare of the United States. I am a big supporter of Clinton, and I am now a big supporter of Obama.
That being said, I think that Obama needs help with the Reagancrats of Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia, etc. Bill Clinton was able to relate to these people because of his time as Governor of Arkansas. Barack’s experience has been as a legislator in Illinois and in Washington D.C as a Senator, and as such, these Reagancrats are not as attracted to him as a Hillary. However, I have a feeling that Barack’s message will resonate with these people because of his message for hope and chance.
Recently I met with a man that lives in the sub-division next to me. He’s in his 60’s, served in Vietnam in the Navy, and lived in the segregated South during his school years. He went to an all-black school in NC. He told me that back in the 60’s you could not even imagine a black man running for President. Many in the black neighborhoods had to deal with the Jim Crowe laws that limited their abilities to get an education. The white people that supported segregation would tell the black communities that segregation is for their own best interest.
Forward to today, and look at the significance of this day. A white woman, whose husband was President, standing up arm to arm with Barack Obama. Cynics will look at this and say Hillary has other motives (and she might). But still, we have a man who is truly a person of the people trying to take everyone to the next great generation.
I have a feeling that Obama’s poll numbers will increase significantly today from this event, and I also believe this is not a bounce that will go back down.
I think that Hillary Clinton is fully commited to supporting Barack Obama. Unforantly, many of her supporters do not think this way. Hillary will help alot in getting her supporters to back Obama, but I think that many of her supporters feel that she is only doing this becasue she has to, and that they are not obligated to heed her words to go support Sen. Obama. This is McCain’s best hope, because the only way he will be able to win this election will be to take away dissaffected Clinton supporters from Obama. Jim W. I don’t think that Obama will get a big boost out this event. It will take alot of these events, as well and Obama going to women and blue collar Democrats to convince them to go for Obama. According to current polls, Obama is only getting a bare majority of Clinton supporters who will activly support him, the rest are either going to stay home or support McCain. This dynamic is the only reason why McCain is so close both nationally and in key swing states.
I will say that Obama will get his big boost at his acceptance speech at the convention, in which months of healing would have taken place and he could use his oraty skills to give great eleation to the Democrats. If Obama doesn’t get an signficant lead over McCain in the polls (AT LEAST by 7 points if not by double digits) then it is an indication that the electon will be a repeat of 2000 and 2004 and Obama will be at risk of losing the election narrowly.
jaxx raxor,
I think the biggest asset Obama has at this point is time. The last time I checked Obama is getting only55- 60% of Clinton supporters (bare majority like you said). I honestly believe this event will be remembered as a crucial day in American politics, or at least for me. I’m hoping that the Clinton supporters will decide not to vote with their feet, which I imagine a lot of them are considering.
Do you agree that the recent economic crisis will help unite the Democratic party? I’m hoping the combination of Hillary’s support and the history of the George W. Bush will help lift Obama into the White House.
I appreciate your opinion.
Completely off topic:
I’m speechless, Taniel! I love the site redesign! Fabulous, amazing, totally awesome!
Jim W, I’m not sure if the economic crisis in iteslf is enough to reunite the Democratic party. In terms of energy policy, polls are showing that most voters actually support McCain and the GOP in terms of drilling off coasts. Also, if Clinton supporters believe that Obama doesn’t have enough experience or that he engaged in sexist tactics, then the econmic crisis alone will not allow them to unify. Only Obama’s strong attention and more Obama/Clinton events will convince Clinton supporters that Obama is ok. We know much angrier Clinton suppoters were toward Obama then Obama supporters toword Clinton, so I see no great unification until the Democratic convention in late August.
If you take into account that HRC & BHO are complete poles apart from McSame on every major and minor issue I don’t see how any Hillary supporters can back McSame unless it’s cause of Obama’s race. And Americans are quite capable of voting their fears and ignorance instead of their best interest. That’s why we have Bush.
The public support helps, but what’s critical is HRC calling key supporters and telling them personally that she wants them to back Obama, generating a trickle down effect. The media is irrelevant to this process. The disaffected cannot be bull-rushed into anything, and a pitch by an Obama supporter, no matter how modulated, won’t have anywhere near the impact of a high profile Clinton supporter button-holing voters with the same message.
I was at the event today. Both of them wee terrific, and the body language was very good. The crowd was large and enthusiastic on a hot day. Almost the entire NH Demo infrastructure was there to voice enthusiastic support (I won’t name the isolated exceptions). I don’t submit this as a template for other states, but while there’s work to do, the people who headed the CLinton effort here - including staff - are on board.
“If you take into account that HRC & BHO are complete poles apart from McSame on every major and minor issue I don’t see how any Hillary supporters can back McSame unless it’s cause of Obama’s race.” mpd
Some of Hillary’s supporters don’t want to support Barack because of race, but those are a decided minority. I do think that of all of the Clinton supporters who say they will vote McCain, if they do so and McCain becomes president, they would regret their decision once McCain starts instuting a policies that ogo against everything Hillary stands for. Before that however, anger and passion will be at the forefront. Some of Hillary’s most ardent supports will never vote for Obama, but for the rest they say they are undecided, staying home, or say they are voting for McCain out of frustration. Soothing this will take alot of work.
“In terms of energy policy, polls are showing that most voters actually support McCain and the GOP in terms of drilling off coasts.”
Jaxx, I think the big problem on this issue is that the Democrats really haven’t explained the benefit of not drilling off-coasts. This is apparent in coastal states (e.g. Florida), but I suspect many voters in Michigan or Ohio see the upside as cheaper gas prices, and don’t really see a downside to it.
If Obama wants to contrast himself against McCain on this issue, he’ll first have to educate inland voters on the issue.
Re: Hillary Supporters and McCain
I think some are voting more based on leadership style than issues. I think Hillary and McCain are closer in style to each other than they are to Obama. Older Democrats in particular might find some of the ‘netroots’ and exuberance for Obama off-putting (ironically, Bill Clinton had some of the same issues in ‘92). It combines with the media focus on Wright and Ayers to paint Obama as a radical in the minds of some Democrats.
I do think Obama can fix most of this problem with his VP choice, having more time to introduce himself, and by running more to the center, which he has already started to do.
jaxx, I don’t know how this will play out with Clinton supporters. Anecdotally, here in NH, there’s been a rapproachment at the higher levels, and women in the political infrastructure have - with one or two exceptions - been very philosophical but forth-coming. Yesterday’s joint appearance went a long way towards moving people together. There was a scattering of die-hards, but they weren’t much in evidence in a large, enthusiastic crowd.
OTOH, one former Clinton staffer told me she had been inviting people on the Clinton donor list to attend, and a surprising number were declining. There is still a lot of venom flowing from some bloggers and serial posters in various forums (NYT, principally). So, I think there’s progress, but still a lot of work to do.
On the VP: like Taniel, I couldn’t envision it at the outset of the day, and I still have objective reservations, but I will say that the body language was very good, and for some audiences, HRC as VP on an Obama ticket will be enormously powerful, even with all the downsides. I think it comes down to a hard-headed calculation as to (a) the importance of those constituencies that Clinton can move (certain women, working class voters, etc.) after netting out her negatives, and (b) if there’s any other way to get them on board. If the answer to (a) is ‘very’, and the answer to (b) is ‘no’, then she’s the VP. Otherwise, I think they’ll look elsewhere.