Comments on: Friday polls: Toss-up in Ohio and tightening in Texas, while McConnell and Cornyn under 50% http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/06/27/friday-polls-toss-up-in-ohio-and-tightening-in-texas-while-mcconnell-and-cornyn-under-50/ Obsessive political analysis Sat, 20 Mar 2010 21:46:20 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: Ian Larson http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/06/27/friday-polls-toss-up-in-ohio-and-tightening-in-texas-while-mcconnell-and-cornyn-under-50/comment-page-1/#comment-4624 Ian Larson Sat, 05 Jul 2008 08:27:24 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=943#comment-4624 Well... Texas isn't the "Republican California" that you describe. The reason for its staunch Republican-ness is because of the gerrymandering that Dick Nixon used to win the South. It just stuck to us. Fucking Pat Buchanan. Well… Texas isn’t the “Republican California” that you describe. The reason for its staunch Republican-ness is because of the gerrymandering that Dick Nixon used to win the South.

It just stuck to us.

Fucking Pat Buchanan.

]]> By: Jaxx Raxor http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/06/27/friday-polls-toss-up-in-ohio-and-tightening-in-texas-while-mcconnell-and-cornyn-under-50/comment-page-1/#comment-4623 Jaxx Raxor Sat, 28 Jun 2008 17:58:19 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=943#comment-4623 Good thing you corrected it. You didn't want people to think you had the wrong idea. Good thing you corrected it. You didn’t want people to think you had the wrong idea.

]]> By: Taniel http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/06/27/friday-polls-toss-up-in-ohio-and-tightening-in-texas-while-mcconnell-and-cornyn-under-50/comment-page-1/#comment-4622 Taniel Sat, 28 Jun 2008 17:46:30 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=943#comment-4622 Thanks for letting me know, it's been corrected! Thanks for letting me know, it’s been corrected!

]]> By: Jaxx Raxor http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/06/27/friday-polls-toss-up-in-ohio-and-tightening-in-texas-while-mcconnell-and-cornyn-under-50/comment-page-1/#comment-4621 Jaxx Raxor Sat, 28 Jun 2008 16:21:31 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=943#comment-4621 Well it is "shit" that Obama has not solidfied the Dem base yet, but hopefully it will happen by the time November comes around. Well it is “shit” that Obama has not solidfied the Dem base yet, but hopefully it will happen by the time November comes around.

]]> By: Jim W http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/06/27/friday-polls-toss-up-in-ohio-and-tightening-in-texas-while-mcconnell-and-cornyn-under-50/comment-page-1/#comment-4620 Jim W Sat, 28 Jun 2008 15:03:44 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=943#comment-4620 "Obama is helped by a shit in partisan breakdown, as 47% of respondents call themselves Democrats versus 35% Republicans, but he has not solidified the base (only 75%). " I think you meant "shift", but maybe not.... “Obama is helped by a shit in partisan breakdown, as 47% of respondents call themselves Democrats versus 35% Republicans, but he has not solidified the base (only 75%). ”

I think you meant “shift”, but maybe not….

]]> By: Jaxx Raxor http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/06/27/friday-polls-toss-up-in-ohio-and-tightening-in-texas-while-mcconnell-and-cornyn-under-50/comment-page-1/#comment-4619 Jaxx Raxor Sat, 28 Jun 2008 12:33:43 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=943#comment-4619 The fact that McCain is doing better at holding his base than Obama is McCain's best hope at winning the white house. Obama needs an minimum of 80% of the Democratic vote in key swing states to be able to put them away: otherwise the election will be a nail biter. In the Texas numbers, the fact that McCain is in single digits is worrisome for him, but it is unknown if Texas will really be competive. Texas is the Republican version of California: If Obama wins Texas, he will win the presidency, but it is an extremly expensive state to spend in and its possible that there is a cealing of support under 50% that Obama an get to. Polls have show varying margins in TX but in general McCain is somewhat ahead and therefore he probably isn't worried yet. And even Obama probably won't spend too much money in Texas, he needs to solidfy the base in swing states. Also on New Jersey, remember that residents there despise their politicans, and most of thier elected officals are democrats. However, its probably not enough for the GOP to take advantage of. After McCain's talk of expanding the map for Republicans by trying to go after some safe Kerry states, he is probably going to limit his time to swing states won by Kerry. On the senate races, I do think the TX one has the potential to be a sleeper, just like VA was in 2006. However, the expensive media market is a major hurdle to Noriega, and polls have not been consistent enough in showing a close race. Therefore Coryn is probably safer than not thanks to his large warchest and the traditional GOP lean. In KY, McConnel is probably safer. Yes KY is a smaller, and therefore cheaper state to run in, but McConnel is the minority leader, and one in a state that trends Republican. This is unlike the situation Daschle was in 2004, and what Harry Reid may be in 2010, which is a state that has some GOP lean AND the GOP having a credible challanger. Lunsford unforantly is not the candidate who could have made McConnell sweat and therefore McConnell will probably continue leading the Senate GOP in 2009. The fact that McCain is doing better at holding his base than Obama is McCain’s best hope at winning the white house. Obama needs an minimum of 80% of the Democratic vote in key swing states to be able to put them away: otherwise the election will be a nail biter.

In the Texas numbers, the fact that McCain is in single digits is worrisome for him, but it is unknown if Texas will really be competive. Texas is the Republican version of California: If Obama wins Texas, he will win the presidency, but it is an extremly expensive state to spend in and its possible that there is a cealing of support under 50% that Obama an get to. Polls have show varying margins in TX but in general McCain is somewhat ahead and therefore he probably isn’t worried yet. And even Obama probably won’t spend too much money in Texas, he needs to solidfy the base in swing states. Also on New Jersey, remember that residents there despise their politicans, and most of thier elected officals are democrats. However, its probably not enough for the GOP to take advantage of. After McCain’s talk of expanding the map for Republicans by trying to go after some safe Kerry states, he is probably going to limit his time to swing states won by Kerry.

On the senate races, I do think the TX one has the potential to be a sleeper, just like VA was in 2006. However, the expensive media market is a major hurdle to Noriega, and polls have not been consistent enough in showing a close race. Therefore Coryn is probably safer than not thanks to his large warchest and the traditional GOP lean.
In KY, McConnel is probably safer. Yes KY is a smaller, and therefore cheaper state to run in, but McConnel is the minority leader, and one in a state that trends Republican. This is unlike the situation Daschle was in 2004, and what Harry Reid may be in 2010, which is a state that has some GOP lean AND the GOP having a credible challanger. Lunsford unforantly is not the candidate who could have made McConnell sweat and therefore McConnell will probably continue leading the Senate GOP in 2009.

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