Comments on: Senate polls: Democrats strong in CO, TX and MS but weakening in MN http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/06/26/senate-polls-democrats-strong-in-co-tx-and-ms-but-weakening-in-mn/ Obsessive political analysis Fri, 19 Mar 2010 21:53:03 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: Jaxx Raxor http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/06/26/senate-polls-democrats-strong-in-co-tx-and-ms-but-weakening-in-mn/comment-page-1/#comment-4601 Jaxx Raxor Fri, 27 Jun 2008 01:58:05 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=937#comment-4601 Joe, I don't think that nominating Al Franken was stupid. No, he wasn't the strongest candidate, but promiment politicans such as congressmen/women or state officals refused to run against Norm Coleman so Al Franken decided to get in. He did say that if the DFL found another candidate that it would step aside, but it never did so Franken will be the nominee. Either him or Mike Cirsei, but he has much less money than Franken and Coleman and the DSCC would have had to basically fund 70% of his candidiancy, which isn't an appealing prosect even in a state as competive as Minnesota. Joe, I don’t think that nominating Al Franken was stupid. No, he wasn’t the strongest candidate, but promiment politicans such as congressmen/women or state officals refused to run against Norm Coleman so Al Franken decided to get in. He did say that if the DFL found another candidate that it would step aside, but it never did so Franken will be the nominee. Either him or Mike Cirsei, but he has much less money than Franken and Coleman and the DSCC would have had to basically fund 70% of his candidiancy, which isn’t an appealing prosect even in a state as competive as Minnesota.

]]> By: Joe from NC http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/06/26/senate-polls-democrats-strong-in-co-tx-and-ms-but-weakening-in-mn/comment-page-1/#comment-4600 Joe from NC Fri, 27 Jun 2008 01:17:00 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=937#comment-4600 I've said it many times before; nominating Al Franken was the stupidest thing the Minnesota Dems could have done. I’ve said it many times before; nominating Al Franken was the stupidest thing the Minnesota Dems could have done.

]]> By: Jaxx Raxor http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/06/26/senate-polls-democrats-strong-in-co-tx-and-ms-but-weakening-in-mn/comment-page-1/#comment-4599 Jaxx Raxor Fri, 27 Jun 2008 01:00:59 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=937#comment-4599 If Obama gets 80%+ of the hispanic vote in Texas he can win, but that isn't going to happen, so he will probably lose, but likely in single digits. I agree with you Fritz, Texas is a sleeper race as Cornyn is much weaker than Hutchinson, the senior senator from Texas. Hopefully Noriega will get some help from the DSCC. On Minnesota, it looks like a lost opporturnity for Democrats. Franken's has only two things going for him; 1 is that there are still many months of campaigning and there is a chance that his porn jokes are primarly an issue in June and won't be in November, the second is that Obama is now polling in double digits in Minnesota and that would only help Franken. I say that Obama could help Franken alot if he staged a joint campaign experience with him. Otherwise, with independents strongly against Franken and even some Democrats not willing to vote for him, Franken wil have blown away Democratic hopes of avenging Paul Wellstone and taking back a seat in which they believe belongs to them. On Mississipi it looks like Wicker will have the fight of his life in trying to hold the seat, althrough it is interesting that he only has a 1 point lead when his oppenent doesn't have a majority of voters approving of him. The NJ numbers are good for Lautenberg, and are more in line with the CW that the Democrat will prevail despite some voters saying he is too old. However Lautenberg is under 50% so that would make him vulernable but I doubt that the GOP will spend money in a democratic leaning state that always teases them but not deleivers. In LA, at least that state is strongly GOP on the Presidential level. I will say right now that there is little chance of a 60 seat majority. In particular, the weakening of Franken in MN almost puts the concept into the coffin, as after VA, NM, NH and CO, only AK and MS are 50-50 tossups, with the rest being at least GOP leaning. Maybe the Dems can pull off some upset wins in NC, TX, OR, or even MN, but likely not in all of them. The GOP brand is damaged but this isn't 2006, in which the Democrats only missed picking up Tennessee. 2010 will be the Dems chance for a 60 seat majority, especially if McCain is elected president this year but ends up doing a horrible job. If Obama is elected its not going to happen. Overall I th ink there is very little chance of a If Obama gets 80%+ of the hispanic vote in Texas he can win, but that isn’t going to happen, so he will probably lose, but likely in single digits. I agree with you Fritz, Texas is a sleeper race as Cornyn is much weaker than Hutchinson, the senior senator from Texas. Hopefully Noriega will get some help from the DSCC.

On Minnesota, it looks like a lost opporturnity for Democrats. Franken’s has only two things going for him; 1 is that there are still many months of campaigning and there is a chance that his porn jokes are primarly an issue in June and won’t be in November, the second is that Obama is now polling in double digits in Minnesota and that would only help Franken. I say that Obama could help Franken alot if he staged a joint campaign experience with him. Otherwise, with independents strongly against Franken and even some Democrats not willing to vote for him, Franken wil have blown away Democratic hopes of avenging Paul Wellstone and taking back a seat in which they believe belongs to them.

On Mississipi it looks like Wicker will have the fight of his life in trying to hold the seat, althrough it is interesting that he only has a 1 point lead when his oppenent doesn’t have a majority of voters approving of him.

The NJ numbers are good for Lautenberg, and are more in line with the CW that the Democrat will prevail despite some voters saying he is too old. However Lautenberg is under 50% so that would make him vulernable but I doubt that the GOP will spend money in a democratic leaning state that always teases them but not deleivers. In LA, at least that state is strongly GOP on the Presidential level.

I will say right now that there is little chance of a 60 seat majority. In particular, the weakening of Franken in MN almost puts the concept into the coffin, as after VA, NM, NH and CO, only AK and MS are 50-50 tossups, with the rest being at least GOP leaning. Maybe the Dems can pull off some upset wins in NC, TX, OR, or even MN, but likely not in all of them. The GOP brand is damaged but this isn’t 2006, in which the Democrats only missed picking up Tennessee. 2010 will be the Dems chance for a 60 seat majority, especially if McCain is elected president this year but ends up doing a horrible job. If Obama is elected its not going to happen.

Overall I th ink there is very little chance of a

]]> By: fritz http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/06/26/senate-polls-democrats-strong-in-co-tx-and-ms-but-weakening-in-mn/comment-page-1/#comment-4598 fritz Thu, 26 Jun 2008 22:41:39 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/?p=937#comment-4598 I've felt since the Texas primary that it might be the sleeper race of this season. Cornyn is a weak candidate and aside from a large warchest has little to offer. His idiodic ad released last week shows the extent of his thinking. I don't think Obama can win the state: unless he performs way above expectations with Hispanics: but Noriega could upset in the senate race. If that happens 60 just may be within reach. I’ve felt since the Texas primary that it might be the sleeper race of this season. Cornyn is a weak candidate and aside from a large warchest has little to offer. His idiodic ad released last week shows the extent of his thinking. I don’t think Obama can win the state: unless he performs way above expectations with Hispanics: but Noriega could upset in the senate race. If that happens 60 just may be within reach.

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