Comments on: Monday polls: Why can’t every day have more polls from Utah than from Pennsylvania?

By: dannity

dannity — Tue, 24 Jun 2008 17:22:00 +0000

In 92 and 96, there was an exceptionally strong 3rd party challenge in the form of Perot that siphoned votes most people believe would have gone to the GOP. Perot pulled some 26% of the vote in South Dakota and about 20% nationally. While Bob Barr will probably be a factor this fall, he has nowhere near the appeal that Perot was able to garner in the 90’s.

People that call the 50 state strategy “arrogant” make me smile. I mean, who needs party building, right? Screw all those other guys, this should be all about Florida and Ohio, always and forever.

By: Jim W

Jim W — Tue, 24 Jun 2008 12:30:00 +0000

I think it’s great for Obama to contest all 50 states. He’s not going to win the Idaho’s, Utah’s, Wyomings, etc, but he’s laying a framework for the Democratic Party for future elections, both on a national level and a state level.

I feel like the Northeast is solidly for Obama, although he needs to firm his support in NJ and CT.

Right now I see the major battleground being MI, OH, VA, NC, FL, MO, NM, CO, NV, AK, and OR. The 50 state strategy will help him in MT, ND, and AR. What I’m surprised with is SD. In both 1992 and 1996, Clinton came within 5 points of winning this state, but Obama has been consistently behind in the double digits.

The Democrats need to expand the map and show all Americans that the Dems want to help all Americans.

By: jaxx raxor

jaxx raxor — Tue, 24 Jun 2008 02:39:00 +0000

anonymous, Obama is not going to waste money in Utah. He isn’t really doing that much better than John Kerry in 2004, it’s rather than McCain is underperforming by only getting support in the 50s while Bush got 71% in Utah, his highest vote out of all of the states. As bad as the GOP brand is, Mormon heavy Utah is staunchly Republican so if Obama was to actually become competive, then a Reagan type landslide is in the making. In Alaska Obama is polling competively but I’m not sure if he will make any major efforts in the state based on its small electoral count, distance from the mainland United States, and its traditioal GOP lean. The general GOP in Alaska is not tarnished (I mean look at how popular GOP gov Sarah Palin is, approval ratings between 70% to 90%!) but of the ole GOP boys who have been in power for a long time like Stevens and Young are being tarnished and this is hurting John McCain. You would think that he would be more associated with the reformist Palin than with pork laden Stevens but I guess Alaskans see Palin as a more unique phenomon.

I agree that Obama cannot get too cocky but McCain isn’t going to walk away with this election. If McCain wins it will be by a narrow electoral vote margin, maybe even losing the popular vote.

By: jaxx raxor

jaxx raxor — Tue, 24 Jun 2008 02:29:00 +0000

I don’t think that the Republicans have given up on New Mexico yet if only because more polls could come up in the future that shows Pearce doing better. This is unlike Virginia, in which they have given up because Warner has had an constant lead for months. I do think that if by July Pearce is still doing badly the GOP will probably abandon him. The most vulerable seat that they will seek to protect will be NH, where Sununu is in danger. I think that Sununu isn’t making a real effort to campaign yet; probably waiting to see if the political situation will change a bit before he starts spending money on ads, but if he does so and is still behind he will be abandoned just like how the GOP abandoned Dewine in Ohio in 2006.

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Tue, 24 Jun 2008 02:27:00 +0000

Obama is being way arrogant. go waste your money in Alaska and Utah and watch McCain walk in the White House next January. It’s going to be fun to watch.

By: C.S.Strowbridge

C.S.Strowbridge — Tue, 24 Jun 2008 02:06:00 +0000

“Steve Pearce might have hoped for a bounce off his primary victory, but this race appears to be increasingly in the bag for Democrats.”

I believe the Republicans have given up on this race, so yes, Pearce is toast.

By: jaxx raxor

jaxx raxor — Tue, 24 Jun 2008 01:32:00 +0000

Obama isn’t going to win Utah, but the fact that McCain is doing more than 10 points worse than Bush did in 2004 really shows how much stronger the Democrats are in this election. The PA race is definitly going to be contested but I think that Michigan will be McCain’s primary form of offense because Obama doesn’t have any organization in the state thanks to the lack of a contested primary there, and McCain will see New Hampshire as his secondary target because of his popularity with the independents there. That means that PA is only number three, but one in which McCain can exploit if Obama is showing weakness among blue collars and women in MI. In Oregan SUSA shows it as close but I doubt McCain will spend his limited funds going after Obama in that state unless Obama is consistenly show to be weak there. Oregan, as well as Washington and some other democratic leaning west and midwestern states would have been easier for McCain to take if Clinton was the nominee, and money would probably be better spent protecting Ohio, Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico rather than going after the pacfic northwest, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.

The New Mexico numbers are nice althrough I still think that it will be one of the tighest’s states in November because the southwest is McCain’s backyard, so McCain and Obama will be tight there.

On the NM Senate Race, if other polls show Pearce with no GOP unity bounce, then he is toast. It it clear that Pearce was probably the weaker candidate for NM republicans to choose. Udall is not only getting a healthy amount of his own party and independents but 26% of Republicans: probably moderate Republicans who are POed at Pearce for smearing Wilson during the primary and who refuse to support Pearce. I do think that Republican will eventually colence around Pearce but he is too far behind Udall to eventually become competive. It seems that at worse the Democrats will get a net gain of one seat, which would mean Dem pick ups only in NM, VA, and NH, and Dem losses in LA and NJ (where polls currently show Zimmer pulling and upset over Lautenberg)