Comments on: Second electoral ratings: Five changes all favor Obama http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/06/18/second-electoral-ratings-five-changes-all-favor-obama/ Obsessive political analysis Thu, 18 Mar 2010 19:08:46 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: Mike http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/06/18/second-electoral-ratings-five-changes-all-favor-obama/comment-page-1/#comment-4508 Mike Thu, 19 Jun 2008 12:03:00 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/2008/06/18/second-electoral-ratings-five-changes-all-favor-obama/#comment-4508 Great analysis and I like the history section at the end sicne this concisely shows the changes which have been positive for Obama in the past two weeks.<br/>I agree Obama is not depending on OH or FL to win but that does not mean he will not compete in those states. He just won`t bet the election on 100,000 Ohioans or 530 Floridans! Great analysis and I like the history section at the end sicne this concisely shows the changes which have been positive for Obama in the past two weeks.
I agree Obama is not depending on OH or FL to win but that does not mean he will not compete in those states. He just won`t bet the election on 100,000 Ohioans or 530 Floridans!

]]> By: Anonymous http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/06/18/second-electoral-ratings-five-changes-all-favor-obama/comment-page-1/#comment-4507 Anonymous Thu, 19 Jun 2008 04:55:00 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/2008/06/18/second-electoral-ratings-five-changes-all-favor-obama/#comment-4507 I live in California. Unless McCain can reach 48% of te vote in California, he's no threat. We simply have a too large of a population for it to be swinged easily. I live in California. Unless McCain can reach 48% of te vote in California, he’s no threat. We simply have a too large of a population for it to be swinged easily.

]]> By: st paul sage http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/06/18/second-electoral-ratings-five-changes-all-favor-obama/comment-page-1/#comment-4506 st paul sage Thu, 19 Jun 2008 04:30:00 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/2008/06/18/second-electoral-ratings-five-changes-all-favor-obama/#comment-4506 As one who has been annoyed that MA was anything but safe democrat i say hooray. For a candidate to beat a long standing pattern (McCain winning MA or Obama winning AK), he has to spend money - a lot of money in MA, show up, and the overall wave has to carry him to some extent. McCain could win this year but there will be no GOP wave and he will not spend a penny in MA meaning it is SAFE D. As one who has been annoyed that MA was anything but safe democrat i say hooray. For a candidate to beat a long standing pattern (McCain winning MA or Obama winning AK), he has to spend money - a lot of money in MA, show up, and the overall wave has to carry him to some extent. McCain could win this year but there will be no GOP wave and he will not spend a penny in MA meaning it is SAFE D.

]]> By: jaxx raxor http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/06/18/second-electoral-ratings-five-changes-all-favor-obama/comment-page-1/#comment-4505 jaxx raxor Thu, 19 Jun 2008 01:30:00 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/2008/06/18/second-electoral-ratings-five-changes-all-favor-obama/#comment-4505 We probably have to see if polls can comfirm this in a week or two but I would say that Florida is now a tossup instead of lean McCain and that California is now safe democract from likely Democrat. It is true that a majority of Americans nationwide support drilling off the coasts but it is presumbly much more negative in the states whose's coasts would actually start drilling. If polls come out showing Florida voters strongly against it, then it would be an indication that McCain's chance to easily take Florida would have slipped away, and he would have to fight for it. The only good news is of the possiblilty that Obama doesn't spend time in the state based on statments that he dosen't want to rely on Florida and Ohio to win the elction.<br/>In California, which is already strongly democratic, it is possible that McCain sealed his fate in a state that probably opposes offshore drilling even more than Florida. McCain's best chance of a an upset victory is on the enviroment (and indeed, it is the enviroment that McCain is using the most to distance himself from Bush) but he probably destroyed what credibility he had in the state. If polls comfirm this, then California will be a safe dem state.<br/><br/>I also agree that Obama just being in single digits doesn't mean that he can win a state. I'm suprised at how well Obama is doing in West Virginia and Arkansas, but he won't win those states because as disliked McCain is because of the Bush connection, Obama is disliked even more. Ditto for South Carolina, Missisipi, and Georgia, states in which Obama has been pulling within single digits but whom he won't win because of racialized voting. Whites are still the majority in these states and they lean heavily republican even against white democrats at the presidential level. How could a black democrat get their support? I do think however that Obama will be of great help to Democrats down ballot who will appreciate increased AA turnout, especially John Barrow of Georgia 12 district, with it's nearly 45% AA population, and Ronnie Musgrove in MS, in which blacks are about 38% of the population throughout the entire state (MS is the state with the highest proportion of blacks).<br/><br/>On Arizona, I would say that it would be a tossup/lean republican if McCain wasn't the nominee but the fact that he is the favorite son will keep it fairly safe for him. Yes, McCain is less popular in his home state than Obama is in Illnois and the best news for the Democrats is that this lessens or eliminates the cottails that McCain has in down ballot races, including some key ones. Arizona is also one of the fastest growing states in the nation and is guarenteed to gain seats after the next census, so doing well here would help democrats cement their standing for future elections. However, I think Obama should spend money and campaign in Alaska, Montana, and North Dakota, which are also likely McCain but more likely to go for Obama than McCain's home state of Arizona. Although if McCain was to lose Arizona in 2008 he probably would retire in 2010. In fact, it's likely he would retire in 2010 if he doesn't retire in 2008 because of him winning the presidential election because he would be in his mid 70s and facing the prospect of a tough opponnet in Janet Napelinto, gov of Arizona. We probably have to see if polls can comfirm this in a week or two but I would say that Florida is now a tossup instead of lean McCain and that California is now safe democract from likely Democrat. It is true that a majority of Americans nationwide support drilling off the coasts but it is presumbly much more negative in the states whose’s coasts would actually start drilling. If polls come out showing Florida voters strongly against it, then it would be an indication that McCain’s chance to easily take Florida would have slipped away, and he would have to fight for it. The only good news is of the possiblilty that Obama doesn’t spend time in the state based on statments that he dosen’t want to rely on Florida and Ohio to win the elction.
In California, which is already strongly democratic, it is possible that McCain sealed his fate in a state that probably opposes offshore drilling even more than Florida. McCain’s best chance of a an upset victory is on the enviroment (and indeed, it is the enviroment that McCain is using the most to distance himself from Bush) but he probably destroyed what credibility he had in the state. If polls comfirm this, then California will be a safe dem state.

I also agree that Obama just being in single digits doesn’t mean that he can win a state. I’m suprised at how well Obama is doing in West Virginia and Arkansas, but he won’t win those states because as disliked McCain is because of the Bush connection, Obama is disliked even more. Ditto for South Carolina, Missisipi, and Georgia, states in which Obama has been pulling within single digits but whom he won’t win because of racialized voting. Whites are still the majority in these states and they lean heavily republican even against white democrats at the presidential level. How could a black democrat get their support? I do think however that Obama will be of great help to Democrats down ballot who will appreciate increased AA turnout, especially John Barrow of Georgia 12 district, with it’s nearly 45% AA population, and Ronnie Musgrove in MS, in which blacks are about 38% of the population throughout the entire state (MS is the state with the highest proportion of blacks).

On Arizona, I would say that it would be a tossup/lean republican if McCain wasn’t the nominee but the fact that he is the favorite son will keep it fairly safe for him. Yes, McCain is less popular in his home state than Obama is in Illnois and the best news for the Democrats is that this lessens or eliminates the cottails that McCain has in down ballot races, including some key ones. Arizona is also one of the fastest growing states in the nation and is guarenteed to gain seats after the next census, so doing well here would help democrats cement their standing for future elections. However, I think Obama should spend money and campaign in Alaska, Montana, and North Dakota, which are also likely McCain but more likely to go for Obama than McCain’s home state of Arizona. Although if McCain was to lose Arizona in 2008 he probably would retire in 2010. In fact, it’s likely he would retire in 2010 if he doesn’t retire in 2008 because of him winning the presidential election because he would be in his mid 70s and facing the prospect of a tough opponnet in Janet Napelinto, gov of Arizona.

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