Comments on: Tuesday polls: Obama pulls ahead in OH and is competitive in NC, while Franken and McConnell are in trouble

By: zoot

zoot — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 11:56:00 +0000

What is somewhat significant in recently released national polls is that predictions by strategists from both camps that Obama could open a double-digit lead in the weeks after becoming the nominee have not come true, though the Democrat is consistently ahead. - Taniel
***********************************

Strategists from both camps? Identify your source please, Taniel. My memory may be faulty, and I don't have time for research right now, but I don't recall any such prediction from Obama. Most commentators were quite up in the air about any bounce, wondering if HRC would endorse, hold back or make a weak pass at support.

I don't think the polls will take on any meaningful shape until after Denver. I expect them to follow more or less a constant line in the interim, with Obama possibly dipping in the weeks prior to the convention as the CLinton supporters get stoked up again about issues real and imaginary. By September 10+/-, we'll have a better feel for whats really going on. The most important thing they contribute right now is underscoring specific demographic weaknesses for the 2 campaigns rather than acting as a predictor for the future.

By: Robert

Robert — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 11:25:00 +0000

I respectufully submit that any poll by SUSA is not worth the paper it is reported on. These polls are all over the place. I usually look at Rasmussen, Zogby, and yes SUSA. I find SUSA to be extremley unreliable. Reporting on the findings of one specific poll, to make pronouncements about the health of any particular candidates campaign, at this point in time, is naive and just show that we really have nothing to talk about. So polls will do. Every poll result is anounced as the determining polling study, that is, until the next one comes and shows a completely different result. I am not from Minnesota. I am unfamiliar with the political climate there. But I will tell you, Barack will win MN. And Coleman, as good campainer as he is, will have to use all his skills to pull this out.

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Wed, 18 Jun 2008 01:59:00 +0000

In the lastest Ohio poll….
PPP surveyed 733 likely voters on “May 17th and 18th”. My question why did they wait to June 17th to release it? A month late after the data is taken seems to me to be very long time to release it?

By: dannity

dannity — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 20:12:00 +0000

Ok, I checked out that SUSA Presidential poll, and I’ve got to call bs on this one. If Obama and McCain split the 18-34’s in a state like Minnesota, I’ll eat my hat. I’m also a bit surprised that McCain is beating Obama in the area they call “Twin Cites”.

All in all, this new Minnesota poll screams outlier to me.

I’m also surprised that for the Senate race, they’re projecting male voters to outnumber female, which wasn’t the case in their Presidential poll. I’m presuming that they know that both elections are being held the same day and all.

A couple weird ones from SUSA that I’d be a bit wary of.

By: jaxx raxor

jaxx raxor — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 19:29:00 +0000

I agree with you Taniel, Obama needs to contest Ohio and not take Michigan for granted. Yes, he doesnt like the idea of contesting the same states over again, but Michigan could very well fall into the Republican collum and if it did Obama would have to take Ohio to even things out. Especially since he wasn’t in Michigan during the primary but was in Ohio.

On Minnesota, the SUSA presidential poll is probably an outlier because most over polls show Obama with a bigger lead. I would say that Obama hasn’t gotten a big boost because there are still wounds in the party that need to be healed. McCain is outperforming Obama in retaining his own voters and in addition to splitting the independnets, this is helping McCain come close. However it would be foolish for McCain to assume this all the bounce that Obama will get. I predict that at least a few days after his acceptance speech in denver Obama will finally get his poll boost as it is likely that most of Clinton supporters would have gone to Obama by that point as well as Obama’s speaking skills. As for McCain, with his weak formal speech skills, I would see no to little bounce, even in Minnesota polls unless he choose Pawlenty as his running mate. Even then it would still probably only be small.

The Minnesota race is starting to turn into a Democratic meltdown, similar to the letdown in Nebraska except even worse because Coleman is a senator from a Democratic leaning state in which Obama could possibly win by double digits. We have to see if other polls show Coleman opening up a double digit lead, and if so, I think that this race will drop down in the competive rankings to probably be around Maine or Kansas than North Carolina or Oregan. Let’s hope Franken can deal with his problems because that is one of the top jobs that a good politican can do. If he can’t do it, the probably isn’t savvy enough to be a senator.