Comments on: Monday polls: Virginia is indeed a toss-up, and is it worth looking at Kansas?

By: fritz

fritz — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 09:48:00 +0000

It will be interesting to see if Obama; or McCain for that matter: does serious campaigning in Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas and other borderline states this summer. Which states get get attention from the nominees is as important a tell (a poker term) as polls at this early stage of the campaign. Note Obamas attention to Michigan lately.

By: dannity

dannity — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 02:05:00 +0000

My guess with Ohio and Florida is that these polling firms are working out a likely turnout model. This is especially true in Florida where Obama hasn’t yet campaigned, but is in the process of making a large organizational push there.

The Obama campaign really plays havoc with polling firms this far out because of the way they’re determined to shake up the electorate. Those polls will come, but this far out, they’d be next to worthless anyway.

By: Jim W

Jim W — Tue, 17 Jun 2008 00:20:00 +0000

Taniel,

In Kansas, it’s not John Roberts, who is the Supreme Court Justice, but instead it’s Pat Roberts (sorry to be particular, but it threw me off for a sec).

Your analysis is dead on. Virginia becoming a blue state is almost to good to be true.