Comments on: Tuesday polls: Why is Washington polled more frequently than OH and FL? (Updated with… 2nd poll from WA!)

By: Stephen

Stephen — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 14:24:00 +0000

Obama and Dean’s 50-state strategy is really showing its strength now. The Democrats’ special election pickups were proof that the strategy can work, and the nomination of Obama has brought the Dems together around it. Even if Obama *somehow* manages to lose in November, the Democratic party will be stronger because of what they’re doing now.

By: C.S.Strowbridge

C.S.Strowbridge — Thu, 12 Jun 2008 02:54:00 +0000

“I don’t think Obama has a chance in Georgia and Mississippi and he would be wasting his time trying that hard.”

Even if he can’t win the EC votes, he could help turn these states a little bluer and help some down ticket races.

If he wins and helps the Democrats reach 60+ seats in the senate, it would be huge.

By: st paul sage

st paul sage — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 21:30:00 +0000

Obama has a chance in GA if:
A) He is able to spend considerable money there and McCain can not (very likely)
B) Barr pulls 5% or more of the vote (possible)
C) Obama registers 100s of thousands of new voters (likely)

and

Obama's polling improves considerably with consolidation of the Democratic party, McCain gaffe etc (tossup). Of course if that happened, Obama would probably open up leads in North Carolina, Virgnia, Ohio and Colorado and GA would not be crucial at that point.

NY will never be competitive for the GOP.

By: zoot

zoot — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 20:02:00 +0000

Georgia is interesting. As of the most recent count, it had @ 5.2 MM registered voters. Assuming the 51-41 split you refer to, and 100% participation (unrealistic, I know), that means that somewhere on the order of 2.65 MM will vote for McCain and 2.13 will vote for Obama - a gap of @0.5 MM votes.

Someone (I believe it was Jim Webb) stated that GA has @ 0.6 MM unregistered Afro-Americans. This is confirmed n Newsweek at http://www.newsweek.com/id/138611

Let’s assume a get out the vote drive registers 0.54 MM, or 90% of them, and that 0.49 MM of them (or 90%) vote for Obama. That’s a net gain of 0.440 MM votes for Obama, reducing the McCain margin to 60 K. Now you’re looking at a very tight race, and that assumes 100% turnout.

If you reduce the registered turnout and the turnout of newly registered AA voters, but preserve the 51-41 and the 90-10 splits, things get even more interesting.

For instance at 70% turnout, or 3.65 MM, McCain receives 1.86 MM votes and Obama receives 1.5 MM - a gap of 0.360 MM votes. Now factor in the newly registered. Assume that 70% of them turn out, say 0.380 MM, and apply the 90-10. That’s a net gain to Obama of 0.342 MM. You can do the math, but it’s close to a dead heat.

I’m sure there is a flaw in my analysis somewhere, but if this is anywhere near accurate, Obama can create real difficulties by conducting a hyper-aggressive voter registration drive enlisting AA churches and other social institutions. If anyone has addition data on the GA demographics, I’d be interested in seeing it.

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 19:58:00 +0000

We learned that New Jersey teases Republicans in the last 2 elections? Try the last 10 elections. Republicans thought they could win every NJ senate race since 1988, and they lost them all.

By: Ron

Ron — Wed, 11 Jun 2008 19:51:00 +0000

I don’t think Obama has a chance in Georgia and Mississippi and he would be wasting his time trying that hard. Money better spent in Virginia and Missouri.