Comments on: Non-Senate down-ballot: Who will beat Don Young first? http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/06/10/non-senate-down-ballot-who-will-beat-don-young-first/ Obsessive political analysis Sun, 21 Mar 2010 05:52:58 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: Taniel http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/06/10/non-senate-down-ballot-who-will-beat-don-young-first/comment-page-1/#comment-4417 Taniel Wed, 11 Jun 2008 15:36:00 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/2008/06/10/non-senate-down-ballot-who-will-beat-don-young-first/#comment-4417 For anyone who sees this comment, Blogger has not been able to publish new posts since yesterday late afternoon which explains why my posts have not been up. I actually have a backlog of 3 fully written entries just waiting to go up. For anyone who sees this comment, Blogger has not been able to publish new posts since yesterday late afternoon which explains why my posts have not been up. I actually have a backlog of 3 fully written entries just waiting to go up.

]]> By: Anonymous http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/06/10/non-senate-down-ballot-who-will-beat-don-young-first/comment-page-1/#comment-4416 Anonymous Wed, 11 Jun 2008 03:48:00 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/2008/06/10/non-senate-down-ballot-who-will-beat-don-young-first/#comment-4416 Schellinger would have performed better against Daniels, Democrats should have nominated him last month. Schellinger would have performed better against Daniels, Democrats should have nominated him last month.

]]> By: jaxx raxor http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/06/10/non-senate-down-ballot-who-will-beat-don-young-first/comment-page-1/#comment-4415 jaxx raxor Tue, 10 Jun 2008 17:55:00 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/2008/06/10/non-senate-down-ballot-who-will-beat-don-young-first/#comment-4415 In NY-20, Kirsten Gillibrand is still favored to hold her seat because she probably has the most money of all of the freshmen Democrats in the House, but Treadwell will keep it close in that slightly GOP leaning district.<br/><br/>On the Alaskan race, I strongly disagree that Parnell will be hurt by the ethincs troubles of some in the Alaskan GOP. He is strongly associated with the very popular reformist GOP governor Palin and her reformist image will rub off on him and give him a decisive edge in the race if he beats Young. I'm suprised that he isn't up by double digits against Berkowitz.<br/><br/>On KY-03 I think the poll is very interesting. It may have been a mistake that Northup was defeated but as the only Democratic leaning district in Kentucky Northup will have her work cut out for her in a year where the GOP brand is still seen as poison. I believe that Obama narrowly won in KY-03 in the Democratic primary (although he lost he total counties in the district like he did in all of them statewide) so this is probably one district in which Obama will not be a drag. I think that Yarmuth will hold the district for a while if he defeats Northup again in 2008.<br/><br/>On the governors race, it is clear that Jay Nixon has a massive advantage primary because he is so well known. Once the GOP unites around one candidate it will probably narrow but I think that Nixon will win regardless.<br/><br/>In Indiana, I would say that the only reason why Daniels is ahead by so much is because the democratic primary must have been bloody and therefor democrats aren't willing to support Thompson. This is overall good news for Republicans, as they have a chance to take two governorships from the democrats (Washington and North Carolina) while they can only possibly lose one seat in Missouri. Of course, the real oppurtuiny will be in 2010 in which many popular Democratic governors in GOP leaning states have to retire because of term limits. In NY-20, Kirsten Gillibrand is still favored to hold her seat because she probably has the most money of all of the freshmen Democrats in the House, but Treadwell will keep it close in that slightly GOP leaning district.

On the Alaskan race, I strongly disagree that Parnell will be hurt by the ethincs troubles of some in the Alaskan GOP. He is strongly associated with the very popular reformist GOP governor Palin and her reformist image will rub off on him and give him a decisive edge in the race if he beats Young. I’m suprised that he isn’t up by double digits against Berkowitz.

On KY-03 I think the poll is very interesting. It may have been a mistake that Northup was defeated but as the only Democratic leaning district in Kentucky Northup will have her work cut out for her in a year where the GOP brand is still seen as poison. I believe that Obama narrowly won in KY-03 in the Democratic primary (although he lost he total counties in the district like he did in all of them statewide) so this is probably one district in which Obama will not be a drag. I think that Yarmuth will hold the district for a while if he defeats Northup again in 2008.

On the governors race, it is clear that Jay Nixon has a massive advantage primary because he is so well known. Once the GOP unites around one candidate it will probably narrow but I think that Nixon will win regardless.

In Indiana, I would say that the only reason why Daniels is ahead by so much is because the democratic primary must have been bloody and therefor democrats aren’t willing to support Thompson. This is overall good news for Republicans, as they have a chance to take two governorships from the democrats (Washington and North Carolina) while they can only possibly lose one seat in Missouri. Of course, the real oppurtuiny will be in 2010 in which many popular Democratic governors in GOP leaning states have to retire because of term limits.

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