Also Survey USA has put John Kerry’s re-elect not re-elect numbers at 48-42. The Rasmussen poll seems to be off. It has OGonowski negatives at higher than what is ID probably is.

On VA, I think that Warner is not a likely takeover, but an guarenteed takeover thanks to Gilmore having so little money and so little support within his own party. I would argue that if Warner suddenly dropped out of the race to be Obama’s VP nominee then Gilmore at best would have a 50-50 chance because he is so weak. There are several other democrats in VA who could be Gilmore as well, just not as good as Warner. I would say that there is little chance that Obama would pick Warner because Warner is in the Senate Race now and the VA Democratic party would be extremely reluctant to allow thier favored candidate to leave. In addition, the first VP candidate of consideration would be Clinton and if not her it will be others. Personally I think a good VP pick for Obama will be based on getting either white women to come back to him or to shore up national security creditionals, and less on trying to secure a particular state. VP nominees have had no impact on states in the GE election since LBJ helped Kennedy out in 1960.

Oh and in MA, Kerry is completely safe now. He was a Democratic version of OK Infoe: being in a state that overwhelming prefers thier own party but having weak approval rating. Unfortantely for the MA GOP, the collaspe they expereinced in 2006 is not going to abate in 2008.

Most Democrats have taken a too optimistic view on this race, and even though I don’t think it’s as dire as we originally thought, it will be a tough race given the LA landscape.