A number of state polls were released today, none more important than EPIC-MRA’s Michigan poll. EPIC is the state’s best pollster, and its numbers confirm the analysis I wrote 24 hours ago of the “Michigan question.” No matter how unlikely a development given how hard the economic crisis has hit in Michigan, it does look like the state has joined Ohio and Pennsylvania as the holy trio of this year’s battleground states:
- This poll shows McCain narrowly ahead of Obama 44% to 40%. He is largely leading among independents, 41% to 28%.
- However, in a match-up between an Obama/Clinton ticket and a McCain/Romney ticket, the Democrats shoot up to lead 51% to 44%.
There is nothing in these polls that suggests that Democrats are in terrible trouble in Michigan, but it is hard to deny that, considering the strong numbers Obama is posting in states like Minnesota, Colorado, Iowa, Missouri, Oregon and Washington, Democrats were allowed to expect better results out of Michigan.
The second important poll of the day is a national survey by Pew, whose polls are always noteworthy because of the detailed crosstabs and analysis that the institute provides:
- Clinton is ahead of McCain 48% to 44%, while Obama leads 47% to 44%, down from a 6% lead last month and a 7% lead in February. Obama and McCain are tied among independents, though the former led by 9% last month.
- Also, 44% say that McCain would continue Bush’s policies, versus 45% who say that he will not. Obama is viewed as more capable on the economy, while the two are within the margin of error on Iraq.
Obama continues to enjoy a very small edge in most national polls, but the election clearly remains a toss-up at this point. It is had to determine who should be the most relieved: Obama that he has survived such a tough primary and weeks of bad press on Wright and Ayers while still looking competitive, or McCain for being largely ignored by the media since February and for running in such an awful year for his party but still looking like he has a road to win.
A series of other polls was released from states that are less central to the fall campaign:
- In Kansas, SUSA found McCain leading 49% to 39%, which is actually a very respectable showing for Obama in a staunchly red state. SUSA also tried some VP match-ups, but Governor Sibelius does not particularly help Obama. The closest he gets is a 2% loss if McCain chooses Pawlenty and he chooses Edwards.
- In New York, Rasmussen finds both Democrats crushing McCain, though Obama’s margin is a bit inferior to Clinton’s. He leads 52% to 33% while she trounces McCain 59% to 29%. Obama’s favorability raitng (64%) is superior to Clinton’s (55%) and McCain’s (44%).
- No surprises in Alabama, where Rasmussen finds McCain leading Clinton 54% to 34% and Obama 60% to 32%.
- Finally, a last Rasmussen poll from Mississippi finds surprisingly tight results: McCain is ahead of Clinton 48% to 38% and leads Obama 50% to 44%. McCain’s favorability rating (55%) is superior to Clinton’s (33%) and Obama’s (44%).
Mississippi is a state some Democrats murmur could be competitive in the fall, though it is hard to see where Obama would get the remaining 6%. Mississippi’s vote is among the country’s most racially polarized, and it should be so even more with a black candidate on the ballot. Obama will need a humongous surge in turnout among black voters (which would not just mean for African-Americans to vote at their level of the population, but for black turnout to be superior to white turnout) and he will also need to poll somewhat better among white voters than past Democratic candidates.
This is a tall order for Obama in any Southern states, but if it looks like he is on the path to making numbers move and results tighten in Mississippi, it could mean that he is in much better shape than expected in other states with a very large black population, especially Georgia and South Carolina. Both states are still safely in the McCain column, but the Obama campaign is planning massive registration efforts and we will soon be able to better assess whether there is any chance that numbers move in the Deep South.
However one feels about his candidacy, Obama’s organization has clearly been superior, so there’s every reason to think that they’ll put together a deep team in southern states. If that’s the case, then McCain has a real problem: the funding gap. Forcing him to spend money in the South, where it should be a walk-over, means that much less for states like MI, PA and OH. Maybe the RNC can close some of the funding gap, and 527s can help a bit, but it will still hurt. Obama doesn’t have to worry about that - he’s printing money, although the next quarterly report (this week-end?) will be interesting.
One other thought. Obama seems to be executing Dean’s 50 state philosophy. While he is relying on volunteers, his campaign is also generating a large base of experienced young professionals with knowledge of and roots in the communities they’re working in. I’ve worked with them, and they are really good. If Dean can retain any significant number of these folks on a more permanent basis, it will be a tremendous boost for the party.
Obama cannot win Mississipi (as well as other deeps south states with significant Black populations). The fact is that there is still more white people in these states and they vote in a way nearly as racial as blacks. That Obama is in single digits means that whites aren’t going to for McCain as overwhelming as blacks are going for Obama, but it’s still significant enough to keep him from winning. If Obama can’t win working class white DEMOCRATS in KY and WV, there is no way he can win independents and GOPers in Mississipi.
On a plus note, while Obama will defintely lose the deep south, his presence on boosting black turnout will help down ballot blue dog dems in the south. In particular, I think that Musgrove can win MS thanks to Obama boosting black turnout, and candidates and incumbents in the deep south will strongly benefit from the increased black turnout Obama will bring out.
jaxx raxor,
I totally agree with your conclusions. Mississippi will be won by McCain. I think North Carolina and Virginia will be Obama’s best chance in the South, even more so than Florida.
I agree with all the above, we are close enough to be competitive and force mac to defend his turf but not enough to win, maybe we can pull and upset in SC, but Mississippi no, I see the main battleground in CO,NM,Nevada, North Carolina,Virginia,Iowa is where the battle is going to be fought
I agree with Carlos, and I personally would add Ohio and Missouri to where the battle will be.
Yeah I agree with Carlos and Jim W. If Obama is going to win a southern state (not including my home state of Maryland which is technically below the Mason Dixon line)it will be Virginia. He may ave a chance in South Carolina, but he won’t come close in any other southeastern state (this includes Florida, the old people there plus the delegate mess has made it unwinnable for Obama).
But even if he doesn’t win the south, he can force McCain to have to fight like hell to retain the south. And we all see quite clearly which party has more cash on hand this time around…
I think it’s time for another taniel post on how Hillary could possibly still win if she sweeps the next primaries and blah,blah blah. It would be as funny as the ones back in March that pushed the the same line.