Comments on: Southern polls: North Carolina and Virginia will be battlegrounds http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/05/12/southern-polls-north-carolina-and-virginia-will-be-battlegrounds/ Obsessive political analysis Tue, 16 Mar 2010 16:48:26 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: Jim West http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/05/12/southern-polls-north-carolina-and-virginia-will-be-battlegrounds/comment-page-1/#comment-3920 Jim West Mon, 12 May 2008 22:53:00 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/2008/05/12/southern-polls-north-carolina-and-virginia-will-be-battlegrounds/#comment-3920 Mike,<br/><br/>I agree that VA is more in play than NC. Northern Virginia has become more Democratic in the last few years. The Southern part of the state tends to be more rural, and the rural areas are where the Dems have not done well throughout the US (with limited exceptions, of course). Mike,

I agree that VA is more in play than NC. Northern Virginia has become more Democratic in the last few years. The Southern part of the state tends to be more rural, and the rural areas are where the Dems have not done well throughout the US (with limited exceptions, of course).

]]> By: Jim West http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/05/12/southern-polls-north-carolina-and-virginia-will-be-battlegrounds/comment-page-1/#comment-3919 Jim West Mon, 12 May 2008 22:51:00 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/2008/05/12/southern-polls-north-carolina-and-virginia-will-be-battlegrounds/#comment-3919 Racism has definitely permeated into our society. I cannot speak for West Virginians, but in North Carolina (where Obama won handily), there is definitely a remnant of the ole dixicrat party from the George Wallace era. I think that a percentage of the older Democrats in the South tend to be more conservative, which would lend them away from Obama and Clinton. In NC, I think there is as much of a racial issue as it is a gender issue--a lot of the older men simply refuse to vote for Hillary.<br/><br/>To go to maniac's inference, he makes a very valid point. Same group of people, and 2 different outcomes. I don't know if there are any other differences between Maine and West Virginia, except WV is the poorest state in the union. Racism has definitely permeated into our society. I cannot speak for West Virginians, but in North Carolina (where Obama won handily), there is definitely a remnant of the ole dixicrat party from the George Wallace era. I think that a percentage of the older Democrats in the South tend to be more conservative, which would lend them away from Obama and Clinton. In NC, I think there is as much of a racial issue as it is a gender issue–a lot of the older men simply refuse to vote for Hillary.

To go to maniac’s inference, he makes a very valid point. Same group of people, and 2 different outcomes. I don’t know if there are any other differences between Maine and West Virginia, except WV is the poorest state in the union.

]]> By: Mike http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/05/12/southern-polls-north-carolina-and-virginia-will-be-battlegrounds/comment-page-1/#comment-3918 Mike Mon, 12 May 2008 22:48:00 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/2008/05/12/southern-polls-north-carolina-and-virginia-will-be-battlegrounds/#comment-3918 Maine is better educated in general than WV. WV has the lowest percentage of college graduates of all 50 states!<br/><br/>VA is more in play than NC but since they are neighboring states and the GOP shows some weakness in NC it is certainly worth Obama campaigning and advertising ion both states. Logistically easier since they are together and overlap of ad buys. Maine is better educated in general than WV. WV has the lowest percentage of college graduates of all 50 states!

VA is more in play than NC but since they are neighboring states and the GOP shows some weakness in NC it is certainly worth Obama campaigning and advertising ion both states. Logistically easier since they are together and overlap of ad buys.

]]> By: Mainiac http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/05/12/southern-polls-north-carolina-and-virginia-will-be-battlegrounds/comment-page-1/#comment-3917 Mainiac Mon, 12 May 2008 22:03:00 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/2008/05/12/southern-polls-north-carolina-and-virginia-will-be-battlegrounds/#comment-3917 If the question regarding Hillary's huge lead in WV and other Appalachian areas is whether it's: "...linked to racism or whether due to the primary's class-divide"...Well, let me just say that you won't find a much more rural, white, and working-class state than my Maine...where Obama won handily...so I don't think the problem in WV is the class divide...hmmm, what was the other choice again? If the question regarding Hillary’s huge lead in WV and other Appalachian areas is whether it’s: “…linked to racism or whether due to the primary’s class-divide”…Well, let me just say that you won’t find a much more rural, white, and working-class state than my Maine…where Obama won handily…so I don’t think the problem in WV is the class divide…hmmm, what was the other choice again?

]]> By: mpd http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/05/12/southern-polls-north-carolina-and-virginia-will-be-battlegrounds/comment-page-1/#comment-3916 mpd Mon, 12 May 2008 21:09:00 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/2008/05/12/southern-polls-north-carolina-and-virginia-will-be-battlegrounds/#comment-3916 As a current native of rural W.V. I can tell you many think Obama is a Muslim-Al Queda-etc.And no amount of commercials will convince them otherwise. It's a state of inbred,ignorant, redneck, racists hillbillies.And it's why Jesus wasn't born here, they couldn't find three wise men and a virgin. As a current native of rural W.V. I can tell you many think Obama is a Muslim-Al Queda-etc.And no amount of commercials will convince them otherwise. It’s a state of inbred,ignorant, redneck, racists hillbillies.And it’s why Jesus wasn’t born here, they couldn’t find three wise men and a virgin.

]]> By: jaxx raxor http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/05/12/southern-polls-north-carolina-and-virginia-will-be-battlegrounds/comment-page-1/#comment-3915 jaxx raxor Mon, 12 May 2008 20:33:00 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/2008/05/12/southern-polls-north-carolina-and-virginia-will-be-battlegrounds/#comment-3915 Unfortunately it seems like racism is the primary reason why Obama will lose in WV both in the primary and the GE. I saw many reports saying that voters in WV won't vote for Obama because of his middle name or because it makes them uncomfortable to vote for a white man. I do think that Obama will do better in the KY primary primarly because of demographics (8% of Kentucky is black acording to that Research 2000 poll while I saw a AP report stating that WV is 95% white). Also according to Research 2000, Obama is only viewed a little less favorably among primary voters in KY compared to Clinton, so maybe he can close the gap a little. However, a big victory for Obama in KY would be a 10% loss to Clinton: Clinton is more likely to get a 17-20% victory in KY.<br/><br/>NC and VA are good news for democratics, especially VA because many polls before today seemed to indicate that VA was lasping back into its regular GOP safe pattern. It is interesting that Clinton is only doing slightly worse in Obama in these states, considering that Obama makes these states out to be ones only he can win in the GE. I wonder if Clinton will use these polls to bolster her arguments that she is indeed more electiable, being strong in states that Obama is supposly stronger in and Obama having no chance in states that Clinton does very good in (Arkasans and West Virginia for example).<br/><br/>I think that the VA race is no longer a likely turnover, to me it is now a guarented or "safe" turnover. I don't think I even seen a poll with Gilmore's support being above 40%. It really is sad for the Virginia GOP; if Tom Davis had been in the race he would have still been the underdog but he would still have a chance. Gilmore unforantely has no chance.<br/><br/>On NC I think Kagen is going to get alot of DSCC cash very soon. Unfortunately it seems like racism is the primary reason why Obama will lose in WV both in the primary and the GE. I saw many reports saying that voters in WV won’t vote for Obama because of his middle name or because it makes them uncomfortable to vote for a white man. I do think that Obama will do better in the KY primary primarly because of demographics (8% of Kentucky is black acording to that Research 2000 poll while I saw a AP report stating that WV is 95% white). Also according to Research 2000, Obama is only viewed a little less favorably among primary voters in KY compared to Clinton, so maybe he can close the gap a little. However, a big victory for Obama in KY would be a 10% loss to Clinton: Clinton is more likely to get a 17-20% victory in KY.

NC and VA are good news for democratics, especially VA because many polls before today seemed to indicate that VA was lasping back into its regular GOP safe pattern. It is interesting that Clinton is only doing slightly worse in Obama in these states, considering that Obama makes these states out to be ones only he can win in the GE. I wonder if Clinton will use these polls to bolster her arguments that she is indeed more electiable, being strong in states that Obama is supposly stronger in and Obama having no chance in states that Clinton does very good in (Arkasans and West Virginia for example).

I think that the VA race is no longer a likely turnover, to me it is now a guarented or “safe” turnover. I don’t think I even seen a poll with Gilmore’s support being above 40%. It really is sad for the Virginia GOP; if Tom Davis had been in the race he would have still been the underdog but he would still have a chance. Gilmore unforantely has no chance.

On NC I think Kagen is going to get alot of DSCC cash very soon.

]]> By: Guy http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/05/12/southern-polls-north-carolina-and-virginia-will-be-battlegrounds/comment-page-1/#comment-3914 Guy Mon, 12 May 2008 19:00:00 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/2008/05/12/southern-polls-north-carolina-and-virginia-will-be-battlegrounds/#comment-3914 Interesting that PPP confirms Rasmussen's findings that Hagan is close to Dole in the NC senate race (Rasmussen had Dole leading by 1%). Dole is vulnerable since an incumbent having less than 50% is a bad sign. I think this will encourage the DNC to support Hagan. She is in a stronger position than Webb in Virgina, 2006 and we know how that turned out.<br/><br/>If the Dems want to get close to 60 seats they need NC. It would also signal NC's journey towards voting for a Democrat in the presidential race Interesting that PPP confirms Rasmussen’s findings that Hagan is close to Dole in the NC senate race (Rasmussen had Dole leading by 1%). Dole is vulnerable since an incumbent having less than 50% is a bad sign. I think this will encourage the DNC to support Hagan. She is in a stronger position than Webb in Virgina, 2006 and we know how that turned out.

If the Dems want to get close to 60 seats they need NC. It would also signal NC’s journey towards voting for a Democrat in the presidential race

]]> By: Guy http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/05/12/southern-polls-north-carolina-and-virginia-will-be-battlegrounds/comment-page-1/#comment-3913 Guy Mon, 12 May 2008 18:57:00 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/2008/05/12/southern-polls-north-carolina-and-virginia-will-be-battlegrounds/#comment-3913 Fritz is right some states Obama will do very well in and others Clinton will do very well. Kentucky is not a swing state, even Clinton would lose by 12% against McCain so it is pretty irrelevant in the GE.<br/><br/>North Carolina is trending the same way as Virginia but I would expect it to take 1-2 more election cycles before it flips in a Presidential race. But it is a good state for Obama to keep McCain on defense so he has less resources on Wisconsin, Oregon and other weakly held Dem states.<br/><br/>Edwards did not help Kerry in 2004 because a) Edwards was no that popular, barely won his senate seat and saw he would lose at the end of his 6 year term so he jumped b) he did not campaign much down here and c) Kerry was viewed much more harshly than Obama is<br/><br/>Also in the past four years the demographics have moved to helped the Dems in both Virginia and North Carolina. As each year passes the demographics improve (more immigration from the north, more educated people etc) Fritz is right some states Obama will do very well in and others Clinton will do very well. Kentucky is not a swing state, even Clinton would lose by 12% against McCain so it is pretty irrelevant in the GE.

North Carolina is trending the same way as Virginia but I would expect it to take 1-2 more election cycles before it flips in a Presidential race. But it is a good state for Obama to keep McCain on defense so he has less resources on Wisconsin, Oregon and other weakly held Dem states.

Edwards did not help Kerry in 2004 because a) Edwards was no that popular, barely won his senate seat and saw he would lose at the end of his 6 year term so he jumped b) he did not campaign much down here and c) Kerry was viewed much more harshly than Obama is

Also in the past four years the demographics have moved to helped the Dems in both Virginia and North Carolina. As each year passes the demographics improve (more immigration from the north, more educated people etc)

]]> By: fritz http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/05/12/southern-polls-north-carolina-and-virginia-will-be-battlegrounds/comment-page-1/#comment-3912 fritz Mon, 12 May 2008 17:38:00 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/2008/05/12/southern-polls-north-carolina-and-virginia-will-be-battlegrounds/#comment-3912 Each candidate will have states that they will do well in and others that they have no chance to win. The reasons for this are, for the most part, the result of each states demographics and events that occur during the campaign. No question West Virginia and Kentucky are losers for Obama but he will bring other states into play where McCain plays badly. The head to head polls will vary with each media brewhaha but a well run campaign, such as Obama has run against Clinton, will stay on message and overcome most media driven crisis. Each candidate will have states that they will do well in and others that they have no chance to win. The reasons for this are, for the most part, the result of each states demographics and events that occur during the campaign. No question West Virginia and Kentucky are losers for Obama but he will bring other states into play where McCain plays badly. The head to head polls will vary with each media brewhaha but a well run campaign, such as Obama has run against Clinton, will stay on message and overcome most media driven crisis.

]]>