The problem with Collins–from a blue perspective–is that she’s a moderate only when it doesn’t matter. From what I’ve heard, when there’s a close vote she’ll look at Mitch McConnell to see what she’s supposed to do. Perhaps the election will depend on Allen’s ability to show her in that light.

I do believe that Minnesota is not looking as a sure bet for the Dems. I thought at one time that Minnesota would definitely change, but not as much now. Minnesota is more likely in my mind to change than Alaska because it’s a blue state. Alaska’s is one of the redist states, and although Stevens is real old and he’s got some ethical issues to work out, I predict the outcome will be a Stevens win by about 1%.

OR: Merkley had better win the primary; he got off to a late start. Novick is just too quirky.

MN: I’m really thinking this one
may be slipping away; the scandals
may be just too much to overcome.

NC: Hagan needs a lot more money.
TX: Noriega needs a lot more money.

Both NC and TX have vulneralble incumbents, but the money gaps are huge, Dole has a 10-1 COH advantage.

I’m sure there will be more surprises along the way.

But we’ll see, one way or the other.

For the US Senate, I posted this on SSP and SenateGuru as my rankings:

SAFE TAKE-OVER:
(1) Virginia - This seat is as safe as some incumbent Democrats. I think everyone is terrified of putting an open seat in a safe column, but it’s a fact.

LIKELY TAKE-OVER:
(2) New Mexico - As it has to be differentiated between Virginia (safe) and New Hampshire (Lean).

LEAN TAKE-OVER:
(3) New Hampshire - Shaheen has consistently polled high single or low double digits against Sununu. He’s probably done-zo.

TOSS-UP:
(4) Colorado - Advantage to Mark Udall given the environment, recent trending to Democrats in the state, the Democratic National Convention, money, and Schaffer as a candidate. Some stronger polling will push this to a Lean or Likely Take-over.
(5) Alaska - Advantage to Mayor Begich given scandal on Stevens, polling showing incumbent under 50%, and general mood of Alaska against the Stevens/Young ordeal. I think this is eventually will flip.
(6) Minnesota - Pretty even to slight GOP lean given the national environment, fundraising, GOP national convention, and polling showing Coleman inches ahead. This is about even with Oregon and North Carolina.

LEAN RETENTION:
(7) Oregon - Smith has money and is an incumbent, but we are voting for President in a blue state, the Democratic Primary is getting Merkley/Novick good face time, and recent polling has this within 5 points. Hold the phone!
(8) North Carolina - Hagan is kicking some major polysci, trouncing in the primary, fundraising, and up against an incumbent (no gender advantage for Dole now) who polls under 50%, and a recent Rasmussen poll has Hagan up 1%!

LIKELY RETENTION:
(9) Louisiana - I haven’t seen any recent polling or the financial situation of Kennedy to show me any different
(10) Maine - Collins isn’t budging; I had high hopes for Allen, so I hope what all the Maine people say (race doesn’t take shape until after Memorial Day) holds true and this gets into the Lean column sooner (rather than later).
(11) Texas - Frmo Safe to Likely Retention given the confirmed recent polls that has this competitive, Cornyn under 50%, and Noriega polling well.
(12) Mississippi (B) - There was early polling showing this could be interesting (more so if it was held in March as the Mississippi Constitution states IMO), but it’s Mississippi, presidential election, and Cochran on the ballot right next to this race.

Remaining “Races to Watch” listed for: Oklahoma, Nebraska, & Kansas. I’d also add Idaho, but not Kentucky and New Jersey (unless you are just looking from a primary perspective, no way in general).

Rice will probably have a tough time actually knocking off Inhofe under any circumstances, but it will be interesting to see how close he comes. He’s not exactly Ted Kennedy, but he’s not avoiding the tag of ‘liberal’ like the plague either. If he ends up staying in there until the end with Inhofe anyways, he could provide a road map to success with the 50 State Strategy.

Also most Clinton and Obama supporters will vote for the eventual nominee - there is no question. There have been heated races before (Carter/Kennedy for example) and voters come home by Nov.

Can you update your senate rankings? My order of most likely to change hands:

(1) Virginia
(2) New Mexico
(3) New Hampshire
(4) Colorado
(5) Minnesota
(6) Alaska
(7) Louisiana
(8) Oregon
(9) North Carolina
(10) Mississippi (Wicker)
(11) Texas
(12) Maine

I don’t see how any other state (at this time) could change over.

(1)-(4) I considder will likely change

(5)-(6) Toss up

(7)-(12) Too close for comfort

I don’t see Oklahoma opening up at this point. Unless Inhofe does something really dumb, he’s safe.