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Comments on: Results thread: States split, Obama as close as ever
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http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/05/06/results-thread-states-split-obama-as-close-as-ever/ Obsessive political analysis Sat, 23 Sep 2017 21:49:42 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: Mark
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http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/05/06/results-thread-states-split-obama-as-close-as-ever/comment-page-1/#comment-3768 Mark
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Thu, 08 May 2008 06:53:00 +0000
http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/2008/05/06/results-thread-states-split-obama-as-close-as-ever/#comment-3768 The math gets extremely easy at this point.<br/><br/>PD margin: Obama +166 <br/>Number of PDs left to reap: 217<br/><br/>What does this mean for Clinton?<br/><br/>It means that she must earn a MARGIN of 167 in the PDs to surpass. 167 / 217 = 76.96% MARGIN. In order to get a 76.96% margin, which means 88.48% to 11.52%. This means, thinking proportionally, that Clinton must now win the remaining six contests with <b>88.48%</b> of the vote in order to get 192 of the 217 PDs.<br/><br/>Mathematically possible.<br/>Statistically practically impossible.<br/>After 5/20, it will be physically impossible.<br/><br/><br/>According to RCP, Obama is now 177 delegates from the nomination.I will put out a write up on the last 6 here <a HREF="http://rosenthalswelt.blogspot.com" REL="nofollow">at my blog</a>, just as I did for the last 12 and the last 10, over the weekend, including my projection of what the PD count will look like after June 3rd. The math gets extremely easy at this point.

PD margin: Obama +166
Number of PDs left to reap: 217

What does this mean for Clinton?

It means that she must earn a MARGIN of 167 in the PDs to surpass. 167 / 217 = 76.96% MARGIN. In order to get a 76.96% margin, which means 88.48% to 11.52%. This means, thinking proportionally, that Clinton must now win the remaining six contests with 88.48% of the vote in order to get 192 of the 217 PDs.

Mathematically possible.
Statistically practically impossible.
After 5/20, it will be physically impossible.

According to RCP, Obama is now 177 delegates from the nomination.I will put out a write up on the last 6 here at my blog, just as I did for the last 12 and the last 10, over the weekend, including my projection of what the PD count will look like after June 3rd.

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By: Daniel Greenfield
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http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/05/06/results-thread-states-split-obama-as-close-as-ever/comment-page-1/#comment-3767 Daniel Greenfield
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Wed, 07 May 2008 22:09:00 +0000
http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/2008/05/06/results-thread-states-split-obama-as-close-as-ever/#comment-3767 You're probably right about that one, anonymous. And I'm very prescient as well. After all, I did vote for McGovern. And McGovern would've made quite a good pres. You’re probably right about that one, anonymous. And I’m very prescient as well. After all, I did vote for McGovern. And McGovern would’ve made quite a good pres.

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By: Anonymous
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http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/05/06/results-thread-states-split-obama-as-close-as-ever/comment-page-1/#comment-3766 Anonymous
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Wed, 07 May 2008 18:34:00 +0000
http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/2008/05/06/results-thread-states-split-obama-as-close-as-ever/#comment-3766 "let's see, the race is over,period, END OF STORY," (unless HRC wins a string of primaries by 80 to 20%). The above was posted here on March 22nd 2008 by a genius. You all could have saved a lot of writing if you'd have just listened to that genius. “let’s see, the race is over,period, END OF STORY,” (unless HRC wins a string of primaries by 80 to 20%). The above was posted here on March 22nd 2008 by a genius. You all could have saved a lot of writing if you’d have just listened to that genius.

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By: Daniel Greenfield
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http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/05/06/results-thread-states-split-obama-as-close-as-ever/comment-page-1/#comment-3765 Daniel Greenfield
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Wed, 07 May 2008 18:22:00 +0000
http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/2008/05/06/results-thread-states-split-obama-as-close-as-ever/#comment-3765 "The Committee has the power to pull the plug on him no matter what you fanatics say or do."<br/><br/>So much for democracy in action. “The Committee has the power to pull the plug on him no matter what you fanatics say or do.”

So much for democracy in action.

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By: dsimon
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http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/05/06/results-thread-states-split-obama-as-close-as-ever/comment-page-1/#comment-3764 dsimon
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Wed, 07 May 2008 16:26:00 +0000
http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/2008/05/06/results-thread-states-split-obama-as-close-as-ever/#comment-3764 <i>Obama promised to win Pa. He promised to win Ind. too.</i><br/><br/>I'd like to see cites for those claims.<br/><br/><i>It's over in November. Right now the least electable Democrat is leading the nomination race.</i><br/><br/>If that's so, why do national polls have Clinton and Obama doing about the same against McCain? Some have Clinton doing better, some have Obama, and they're usually within each other's margin of error. And some have Obama ahead of McCain, I'm unclear how the conclusion that "it's over" was reached. Obama promised to win Pa. He promised to win Ind. too.

I’d like to see cites for those claims.

It’s over in November. Right now the least electable Democrat is leading the nomination race.

If that’s so, why do national polls have Clinton and Obama doing about the same against McCain? Some have Clinton doing better, some have Obama, and they’re usually within each other’s margin of error. And some have Obama ahead of McCain, I’m unclear how the conclusion that “it’s over” was reached.

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By: Tom
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http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/05/06/results-thread-states-split-obama-as-close-as-ever/comment-page-1/#comment-3763 Tom
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Wed, 07 May 2008 15:33:00 +0000
http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/2008/05/06/results-thread-states-split-obama-as-close-as-ever/#comment-3763 Anon - Obama never said he would win PA. He at least competes strongly in every state of the union. Clinton gave up on WI, MD, VA and several mountain states back in February. She is running out of money and has made strategic campaign errors including the whole gas tax issue.<br/><br/>I now see that you shift from Obama never getting the nomination to he won`t win in November. You seem to accept your candidate will not be the Democratic nominee. So all you can do is wait until November getting bitter at the thought of Obama becoming President Obama. Of course if he wins, you will complain about something else.<br/>So far he has out performed Clinton in every measure - money, votes, delegates, states won and she had the machine to start with!! Anon - Obama never said he would win PA. He at least competes strongly in every state of the union. Clinton gave up on WI, MD, VA and several mountain states back in February. She is running out of money and has made strategic campaign errors including the whole gas tax issue.

I now see that you shift from Obama never getting the nomination to he won`t win in November. You seem to accept your candidate will not be the Democratic nominee. So all you can do is wait until November getting bitter at the thought of Obama becoming President Obama. Of course if he wins, you will complain about something else.
So far he has out performed Clinton in every measure - money, votes, delegates, states won and she had the machine to start with!!

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By: Anonymous
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http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/05/06/results-thread-states-split-obama-as-close-as-ever/comment-page-1/#comment-3762 Anonymous
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Wed, 07 May 2008 14:36:00 +0000
http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/2008/05/06/results-thread-states-split-obama-as-close-as-ever/#comment-3762 Talk about crap Tom. Obama promised to win Pa. He promised to win Ind. too. He promises and promises but can't deliver. His blackness isn't going to be dispelled by how many white people like Daschle and McCaskell support him. He has to project himself as a leader of everyone. He's trying by the way his speech went last night. If he can't pull it off, he's over. The Committee has the power to pull the plug on him no matter what you fanatics say or do. Saying that this game is over is the biggest load of crap ever. It's over in November. Right now the least electable Democrat is leading the nomination race. Either he becomes more electable or he loses. I'd rather see the strongest Democrat nominated so I don't have to see the weak one give the WH to McSame. Talk about crap Tom. Obama promised to win Pa. He promised to win Ind. too. He promises and promises but can’t deliver. His blackness isn’t going to be dispelled by how many white people like Daschle and McCaskell support him. He has to project himself as a leader of everyone. He’s trying by the way his speech went last night. If he can’t pull it off, he’s over. The Committee has the power to pull the plug on him no matter what you fanatics say or do. Saying that this game is over is the biggest load of crap ever. It’s over in November. Right now the least electable Democrat is leading the nomination race. Either he becomes more electable or he loses. I’d rather see the strongest Democrat nominated so I don’t have to see the weak one give the WH to McSame.

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By: Tom
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http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/05/06/results-thread-states-split-obama-as-close-as-ever/comment-page-1/#comment-3761 Tom
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Wed, 07 May 2008 12:30:00 +0000
http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/2008/05/06/results-thread-states-split-obama-as-close-as-ever/#comment-3761 Anon - you talk crap as usual. Black only government with Obama - stop smoking the crack. Is that why Daschle, Richardson, McCasskil and other non-black elected officals have supported Obama?<br/><br/>Obama outperformed expectations, he eliminated the net popular vote and pledged delegates Clinton got out of PA and IN. IN was set up demographically for her, Obama had had two plus weeks of terrible press and still he did very well.<br/><br/>In the past two weeks Obama has gained 24 SD's to Clinton's 12 - remember that was when she had "monmentum" and he had bad press. Now I expect many more SD's to come forward and for Obama. GAME OVER for CLINTON.<br/><br/>Working class white voters have one vote just like every other group. So when a candidate wins they have the most people supporting them. Obama has therefore shown that nearly as many people in white Indiana support him as support Clinton. Anon - you talk crap as usual. Black only government with Obama - stop smoking the crack. Is that why Daschle, Richardson, McCasskil and other non-black elected officals have supported Obama?

Obama outperformed expectations, he eliminated the net popular vote and pledged delegates Clinton got out of PA and IN. IN was set up demographically for her, Obama had had two plus weeks of terrible press and still he did very well.

In the past two weeks Obama has gained 24 SD’s to Clinton’s 12 - remember that was when she had “monmentum” and he had bad press. Now I expect many more SD’s to come forward and for Obama. GAME OVER for CLINTON.

Working class white voters have one vote just like every other group. So when a candidate wins they have the most people supporting them. Obama has therefore shown that nearly as many people in white Indiana support him as support Clinton.

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By: Anonymous
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http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/05/06/results-thread-states-split-obama-as-close-as-ever/comment-page-1/#comment-3760 Anonymous
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Wed, 07 May 2008 11:28:00 +0000
http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/2008/05/06/results-thread-states-split-obama-as-close-as-ever/#comment-3760 Keep patting yourselves on the back, Obama still didn't carry enough white votes to translate into a GE victory. When Nov. comes around it'll be McCain that gets trusted to live in the WH. By then he will have just co-opt all the relevant points of Obama's platform to the point that most whites won't trust Barack to do anything for them. Tonight on CNN Donna Brazile displayed a "Rev. Wright moment" that just undercut more white support for a black guy. Barack needs to get out from under this bad attitude problem of these entitlement blacks that are blocking whites from getting behind him. Until that happens the fear of a "Rev. Wright" WH is going to overcome any policy issues with McCain. They'll vote for the lesser of two evils and that will be McCain. McSame for four years is better than a "black only" government. We all know what happened in SA. You can expect the republicans to to use that as an example of what blacks do in power. Keep patting yourselves on the back, Obama still didn’t carry enough white votes to translate into a GE victory. When Nov. comes around it’ll be McCain that gets trusted to live in the WH. By then he will have just co-opt all the relevant points of Obama’s platform to the point that most whites won’t trust Barack to do anything for them. Tonight on CNN Donna Brazile displayed a “Rev. Wright moment” that just undercut more white support for a black guy. Barack needs to get out from under this bad attitude problem of these entitlement blacks that are blocking whites from getting behind him. Until that happens the fear of a “Rev. Wright” WH is going to overcome any policy issues with McCain. They’ll vote for the lesser of two evils and that will be McCain. McSame for four years is better than a “black only” government. We all know what happened in SA. You can expect the republicans to to use that as an example of what blacks do in power.

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By: Mike
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http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/05/06/results-thread-states-split-obama-as-close-as-ever/comment-page-1/#comment-3759 Mike
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Wed, 07 May 2008 09:38:00 +0000
http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/2008/05/06/results-thread-states-split-obama-as-close-as-ever/#comment-3759 Jaxx - a split decision barely. A 1-2% win in IN for either candidate was really a tie. I mean 25,000 votes in a state with millions of voters is hardly anything for Clinton to brag about. She had favorable demographics and Obama had terrible press for weeks. <br/>NC exceeded recent expectations - a good double digit victory which totally erased the PA and IN losses is good news for him.<br/>Also he did well with thew white vote in both states and surprisingly did well in eastern NC which is white working class. Jaxx - a split decision barely. A 1-2% win in IN for either candidate was really a tie. I mean 25,000 votes in a state with millions of voters is hardly anything for Clinton to brag about. She had favorable demographics and Obama had terrible press for weeks.
NC exceeded recent expectations - a good double digit victory which totally erased the PA and IN losses is good news for him.
Also he did well with thew white vote in both states and surprisingly did well in eastern NC which is white working class.

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