PD margin: Obama +166
Number of PDs left to reap: 217
What does this mean for Clinton?
It means that she must earn a MARGIN of 167 in the PDs to surpass. 167 / 217 = 76.96% MARGIN. In order to get a 76.96% margin, which means 88.48% to 11.52%. This means, thinking proportionally, that Clinton must now win the remaining six contests with 88.48% of the vote in order to get 192 of the 217 PDs.
Statistically practically impossible.
After 5/20, it will be physically impossible.
According to RCP, Obama is now 177 delegates from the nomination.I will put out a write up on the last 6 here at my blog, just as I did for the last 12 and the last 10, over the weekend, including my projection of what the PD count will look like after June 3rd.]]>
So much for democracy in action.]]>
I’d like to see cites for those claims.
It’s over in November. Right now the least electable Democrat is leading the nomination race.
If that’s so, why do national polls have Clinton and Obama doing about the same against McCain? Some have Clinton doing better, some have Obama, and they’re usually within each other’s margin of error. And some have Obama ahead of McCain, I’m unclear how the conclusion that “it’s over” was reached.]]>
I now see that you shift from Obama never getting the nomination to he won`t win in November. You seem to accept your candidate will not be the Democratic nominee. So all you can do is wait until November getting bitter at the thought of Obama becoming President Obama. Of course if he wins, you will complain about something else.
So far he has out performed Clinton in every measure - money, votes, delegates, states won and she had the machine to start with!!
Obama outperformed expectations, he eliminated the net popular vote and pledged delegates Clinton got out of PA and IN. IN was set up demographically for her, Obama had had two plus weeks of terrible press and still he did very well.
In the past two weeks Obama has gained 24 SD’s to Clinton’s 12 - remember that was when she had “monmentum” and he had bad press. Now I expect many more SD’s to come forward and for Obama. GAME OVER for CLINTON.
Working class white voters have one vote just like every other group. So when a candidate wins they have the most people supporting them. Obama has therefore shown that nearly as many people in white Indiana support him as support Clinton.]]>