Ah, once again an “anonymous” poster and Clinton fan with golden things to say.

The wording is really crass, but the message is about right. I do think Clinton will win these two very, very racist states 65-35, which is a 30+ margin.

And here is the list of races where Obama has had a 24+ margin (+24 means a massive 62 to 38 landslide):

Virgin Islands, margin: +82.70
Idaho, margin: +62.31
Hawaii, margin: +52.13
DC, margin: +51.54
Alaska, margin: +49.15
Kansas, margin: +48.22
Washington state, margin: +36.41
Nebraska, margin: +35.32
Georgia, margin: +35.28
Colorado, margin: +34.27
Minnesota, margin: +34.16
Democrats abroad, margin: +33.39
Illinois, margin: +31.70
South Carolina, margin: +28.92
Virginia, margin: +28.18
North Dakota, margin: +24.60
Maryland, margin: +24.50
Wyoming, margin: +24.06

That’s 18 states, or 1/3 of the union.

And here is the list of races where Clinton has had a 24+ margin (+24 means a massive 62 to 38 landslide):

Arkansas, margin: +43.80

That’s 1 state

Here are the Obama narrow wins, under +9:

Missouri, margin: +0.30
Connecticut, margin: +4.04
Iowa, margin: +8.11

Here are the Clinton narrow wins, under +9:

New Mexico, margin: +0.14
New Hampshire, margin: +2.64
Texas, margin: +3.52
Nevada, margin: +5.49
California, margin: +8.63

Number of states Obama was won with double digits (anything above 10%): 26 states (more than 1/2 of the union)

Number of states Clinton has won in double digits: 8 (less than 1/5 of the union).

So, when “anonymous” talks in this classy way about “arse-r***ing”, just remember that Clinton has already endured this humiliation 18 times.

Clinton had a “arse-r***ing” (as you so gently pout it) in Maryland, Virginia and Illinois. Of course these are either Democratic states or swing states and all have at least 10 EV’s so count. KT and WV are small, red states so not really the same thing.

Very few times in history in which the “presumptive nominee” (as obama fans call him) loses by THAT much.

Heck, even McCain won Mississippi at 79%, which is supposed to be entirely Huckabee country. The demographics of MS is definitely against McCain, but he still closes the deal.

Well written, and I think Clinton will score her second and third highest margins of the season in KY and WV (right under her AR margin). There is also word going around that the politicos in Puerto Rico want to award the entire block of PDs to the PV winner there. But that is just conjecture right now. However, I do not think that Clinton will be able to narrow the race in NC as Obama did in PA, for 2 important reasons: a.) time - Obama had 6 weeks for PA, Clinton only gets 2 here and b.) organization: she has 3 times less offices and teams on the ground in NC that he does.

I left a comment this morning about those PDs on another thread on your blog and got flamed pretty bad about it. Interesting to see that you also put out a very good posting on the PDs.

And though she won a very good win and will win massive landslides in KY and WV and probably PR, this is still not enough to get her anywhere against Obama in the PD count. I stand by my prediction that from the last 9 races, she will close the PD margin by all of 4 delegates.

At the end of the day, not including and Supers that may declare between now and June 3, Obama will be about 63 delegates from locking the nomination.

But since I am sure Clinton will fight to the bitter end, even if it means burning the democratic party down to the ground in the process, I guess we will all know soon enough how the numbers will look.

I was once an avid Clinton fan, but the more I watch her campaign, the more doubts I have. If she gets the nomination, then I will (*sigh*) pull the lever for her, but not with much excitement…

If Obama wins the nomination, and I think he will, then I will try to get 30 others to also pull the lever for him…

I agree with your point about the turnout for the GOP primary but remember the Dems won PA by 200000 or so in 2000 and 20004 so having over 200000 GOP voters unhappy with McCain does not help the GOP. Also the GOP turnout was 25% as opposed to the Dem turnout of 50% - not exactly bad for the GOP baring in mind all the coverage has been on the Dems.
I am sure there are many GOP voters who do not support McCain but did not make the effort to go out and vote. Hell even 50% of registered Dems didn`t bother to come out and we all know PA was important.

Tom, you are right that have the situation between Obama and Clinton were reversed Obama would be out of the race. However remember that Clinton is one of the most well known and well connected Democrats in the country while Obama is a new upstart. Clinton is able to stay in the race because she is very well known and she has been able to win certain state to keep her afloat. If the situation was reversed, Clinton’s delegate lead plus her connections in Dem primary would have forced Obama to lead. Th emain thing Obama has now is his good fundraising and good victories, but he doesn’t have the strong connections to be able to force Clinton out before the primary season is over.

Nice article in the NY Times about this.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/27/opinion/27rich.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

Looks like McCain has an issue with his base much like some people say Obama or Clinton do (with significant minority as of now saying they would not vote for the other candidate).