Comments on: Stunning, yes, but there were clues: Why polls were not wrong

By: Andy

Andy — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 18:44:00 +0000

I also don’t by the Bradley theory here. Obama still did very well with white men, so only women in New Hampshire are racist? C’mon.

To add on to your idea that there were indeed signs, Obama actually finished around his pre-results polling average. It was just that Clinton did much better than expected at the expense of John Edwards.

Excellent post, CD.

By: Mr. Rational

Mr. Rational — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 17:27:00 +0000

David, Obama was not “down 14 or more points” in the New Hampshire polls coming out just before Iowa. He had already started to move and was even leading Clinton in some polls. The bounce didn’t stick much at all.

By: wglad

wglad — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 16:11:00 +0000

I wonder if the results vindicate Mark Penn’s methods.

By: David Dobson

David Dobson — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 16:07:00 +0000

You said: “Obama’s post-Iowa momentum was crushed in a matter of days.”

But given that before Iowa Obama was down 14 or more points, I’d say the Bounce stuck…or at least most of it.

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 16:06:00 +0000

If race didn’t matter in Iowa, why would it matter in New Hampshire? Could it not be that voters simply thought Hillary was more qualified to be president? I believe exit polls actually said just that.

By: Kathy

Kathy — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 15:58:00 +0000

I think Steinem’s article was only what is to be expected from her. She tried to downplay the struggle of African-Americans to vote in an effort to garner sympathy for Hillary. Many blacks in America got their vote in the 1960s, not the 1860s.

I’m glad she disclosed that she was working for HRC, but it’s still obvious that gender had too much influence on her decision. This is beyond the fact that a woman like HRC who gained much of her fame from being married to a man who has publicly cheated on her is hardly an ideal example for a feminist.

In the end, we should be voting for someone because of their personal positions and qualities, not their gender or race.

By: Anonymous

Anonymous — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 15:52:00 +0000

The Tom Bradley effect is actually a very possible influence here. Obama supporters keep telling themselves that race isn’t a problem. But the results aren’t supporting that notion.

By: Hamburger

Hamburger — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 15:31:00 +0000

Re: last-minute shift of women to HC.

As an expat living in the EU and only now beginning to pay close attention to the campaign, I was hugely impressed with Gloria Steinem's op-ed in the NYT yesterday (listed as most popular op-ed piece): "Women are never the front runner". Got no idea whether NH voters are big time NYT readers, but GS did put out a compelling gender-based argument.

Any way of testing any influence this piece might have had?

GS is open in the article about working for HC, btw.

By: Martin Vennard

Martin Vennard — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 15:21:00 +0000

Hi, I work for an international discussion programme called World Have Your Say on BBC World Service radio and today (Wednesday 9th) between 1pm and 2pm Eastern Time in the States we are discussing why the media and pollsters got it so wrong when it came to predicting the results in New Hampshire and whether the media is in love with the idea of an Obama presidential victory. If you are interested in taking part in our discussion please send meyour contact numbers to martin.vennard@bbc.co.uk or call me +442075570635 and I will call you straight back.

Many thanks

Martin Vennard

By: app state

app state — Wed, 09 Jan 2008 15:10:00 +0000

I think it was absolutely absurd to hear CNN talking about the “Tom Bradley Effect” last night, as if to imply that New Hampshire was somehow inherently racist. What made me more annoyed was much time was spent over the past few days talking about how “Iowa is color-blind, maybe America is too.” So, apparently, you can’t be color-blind and be for Hillary… at that point, you’re racist (as so implied). Ridiculous.

Second, I sent that link to the Nashua Telegraph stories yesterday. When reading those throughout the day, you could tell that it was a more even split, anecdotally, for Independents. The stories of towns running out of ballots had mentions that they were of both ballots, GOP and Democratic and not lopsided for one over the other.

Once again I appreciate and enjoy your analysis!