Comments on: New Hampshire results thread: McCain triumphs, Clinton completes an improbable come-back http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/01/08/new-hampshire-results-thread-mccain-triumphs-clinton-completes-an-improbable-come-back/ Obsessive political analysis Sun, 21 Mar 2010 04:07:04 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: Mr. Rational http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/01/08/new-hampshire-results-thread-mccain-triumphs-clinton-completes-an-improbable-come-back/comment-page-1/#comment-242 Mr. Rational Wed, 09 Jan 2008 06:20:00 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/2008/01/08/new-hampshire-results-thread-mccain-triumphs-clinton-completes-an-improbable-come-back/#comment-242 Who would ever have believed that a narrow win for Hillary Clinton in an early primary would be construed as showing signs of vitality from her campaign? And yet, here we are... What a strange election!<br/><br/>So, where to from here? My guess is that Clinton spins her no-doubt strong Michigan showing into another sign of vitality, even though she's basically unopposed. (To my MI friends: Is Dodd still on the ballot there, even after his dropout?) Then she probably hopes for a good result in the non-binding preference poll in NV, where she was leading big in the last poll I saw (caveat: a month old now). A win there, and she can argue her case for the "big mo" going into SC. But the case will be weak, and Obama is likely to still be strong. It's definitely a two-horse race, and an exciting one.<br/><br/>Taniel, very much agree with you on the McCain storyline for Michigan. Romney is polling well among Republicans, but the national storyline now has McCain as a serious contender, which means he should get his fair share...and he should do better among independents there. A win in MI would improve his showing in SC and probably help him grab NV on the same day. Then he could well take advantage of Rudy's fall to win in FL, in which case he's the odds-on favorite going into Tsunami Tuesday.<br/><br/>A thought, though: What happens if Romney comes out on top in Michigan? It's not unlikely, considering his background and the numbers...and then we'd have three states, three winners at that point. (WY barely counts, it's such a closed process.) Thompson could muddy the picture even more with any kind of strong showing in SC. So NV and FL might well become the battlegrounds where the GOP nom is decided. Who would ever have believed that a narrow win for Hillary Clinton in an early primary would be construed as showing signs of vitality from her campaign? And yet, here we are… What a strange election!

So, where to from here? My guess is that Clinton spins her no-doubt strong Michigan showing into another sign of vitality, even though she’s basically unopposed. (To my MI friends: Is Dodd still on the ballot there, even after his dropout?) Then she probably hopes for a good result in the non-binding preference poll in NV, where she was leading big in the last poll I saw (caveat: a month old now). A win there, and she can argue her case for the “big mo” going into SC. But the case will be weak, and Obama is likely to still be strong. It’s definitely a two-horse race, and an exciting one.

Taniel, very much agree with you on the McCain storyline for Michigan. Romney is polling well among Republicans, but the national storyline now has McCain as a serious contender, which means he should get his fair share…and he should do better among independents there. A win in MI would improve his showing in SC and probably help him grab NV on the same day. Then he could well take advantage of Rudy’s fall to win in FL, in which case he’s the odds-on favorite going into Tsunami Tuesday.

A thought, though: What happens if Romney comes out on top in Michigan? It’s not unlikely, considering his background and the numbers…and then we’d have three states, three winners at that point. (WY barely counts, it’s such a closed process.) Thompson could muddy the picture even more with any kind of strong showing in SC. So NV and FL might well become the battlegrounds where the GOP nom is decided.

]]> By: Steve http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/01/08/new-hampshire-results-thread-mccain-triumphs-clinton-completes-an-improbable-come-back/comment-page-1/#comment-241 Steve Wed, 09 Jan 2008 04:40:00 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/2008/01/08/new-hampshire-results-thread-mccain-triumphs-clinton-completes-an-improbable-come-back/#comment-241 No way was Obama's speech 'powerful'. You could see the disappointment in his eyes and it was weak and empty. No way was Obama’s speech ‘powerful’. You could see the disappointment in his eyes and it was weak and empty.

]]> By: Southern Slav http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/01/08/new-hampshire-results-thread-mccain-triumphs-clinton-completes-an-improbable-come-back/comment-page-1/#comment-240 Southern Slav Wed, 09 Jan 2008 02:43:00 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/2008/01/08/new-hampshire-results-thread-mccain-triumphs-clinton-completes-an-improbable-come-back/#comment-240 With 47% precincts reporting, Hillary's got a 4,100 vote lead. Hillary's appeal should not be discounted. With 47% precincts reporting, Hillary’s got a 4,100 vote lead. Hillary’s appeal should not be discounted.

]]> By: Southern Slav http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/01/08/new-hampshire-results-thread-mccain-triumphs-clinton-completes-an-improbable-come-back/comment-page-1/#comment-239 Southern Slav Wed, 09 Jan 2008 02:32:00 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/2008/01/08/new-hampshire-results-thread-mccain-triumphs-clinton-completes-an-improbable-come-back/#comment-239 It's important not to throw to much dirt for Hillary's grave quite yet. NH does not want to be responsible for the destruction of Hillary's Presidential ambitions. It’s important not to throw to much dirt for Hillary’s grave quite yet. NH does not want to be responsible for the destruction of Hillary’s Presidential ambitions.

]]> By: Anonymous http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/01/08/new-hampshire-results-thread-mccain-triumphs-clinton-completes-an-improbable-come-back/comment-page-1/#comment-238 Anonymous Wed, 09 Jan 2008 00:44:00 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/2008/01/08/new-hampshire-results-thread-mccain-triumphs-clinton-completes-an-improbable-come-back/#comment-238 where are you getting your numbers? where are you getting your numbers?

]]> By: Steve http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/01/08/new-hampshire-results-thread-mccain-triumphs-clinton-completes-an-improbable-come-back/comment-page-1/#comment-237 Steve Wed, 09 Jan 2008 00:21:00 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/2008/01/08/new-hampshire-results-thread-mccain-triumphs-clinton-completes-an-improbable-come-back/#comment-237 I don't know about all this, but it looks like John McCain is going to win this thing. I don’t know about all this, but it looks like John McCain is going to win this thing.

]]> By: app state http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/01/08/new-hampshire-results-thread-mccain-triumphs-clinton-completes-an-improbable-come-back/comment-page-1/#comment-236 app state Tue, 08 Jan 2008 23:07:00 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/2008/01/08/new-hampshire-results-thread-mccain-triumphs-clinton-completes-an-improbable-come-back/#comment-236 I think what is meant by this is that out of the GOP voters, 30% are Independents. Out of the Democratic voters, 40% are Independents. I think what is meant by this is that out of the GOP voters, 30% are Independents. Out of the Democratic voters, 40% are Independents.

]]> By: dave http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/01/08/new-hampshire-results-thread-mccain-triumphs-clinton-completes-an-improbable-come-back/comment-page-1/#comment-235 dave Tue, 08 Jan 2008 22:58:00 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/2008/01/08/new-hampshire-results-thread-mccain-triumphs-clinton-completes-an-improbable-come-back/#comment-235 Scratch that, Marc Ambinder may have a typo on his site. He says "3 in 10 independents are GOP voters," but I think he might be the other way around. Scratch that, Marc Ambinder may have a typo on his site. He says “3 in 10 independents are GOP voters,” but I think he might be the other way around.

]]> By: dave http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/01/08/new-hampshire-results-thread-mccain-triumphs-clinton-completes-an-improbable-come-back/comment-page-1/#comment-234 dave Tue, 08 Jan 2008 22:44:00 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/2008/01/08/new-hampshire-results-thread-mccain-triumphs-clinton-completes-an-improbable-come-back/#comment-234 70% of registered independents voted in the Democratic primary. That's the more relevant number. 70% of registered independents voted in the Democratic primary. That’s the more relevant number.

]]> By: Anonymous http://campaigndiaries.com/2008/01/08/new-hampshire-results-thread-mccain-triumphs-clinton-completes-an-improbable-come-back/comment-page-1/#comment-233 Anonymous Tue, 08 Jan 2008 22:38:00 +0000 http://campaigndiaries.wordpress.com/2008/01/08/new-hampshire-results-thread-mccain-triumphs-clinton-completes-an-improbable-come-back/#comment-233 ". . . if all of the independents are voting, they're going to go Obama over McCain, fosho."<br/><br/>That has got to be the most ridiculous thing I've heard for some time. Obama is not that popular. My feeling is that this means that McCain is getting his fair shake of indies, too. “. . . if all of the independents are voting, they’re going to go Obama over McCain, fosho.”

That has got to be the most ridiculous thing I’ve heard for some time. Obama is not that popular. My feeling is that this means that McCain is getting his fair shake of indies, too.

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