Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-settings.php on line 512

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-settings.php on line 527

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-settings.php on line 534

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-settings.php on line 570

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Page::start_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::start_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1199

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Page::end_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::end_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1199

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Page::start_el() should be compatible with Walker::start_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1199

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Page::end_el() should be compatible with Walker::end_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1199

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_PageDropdown::start_el() should be compatible with Walker::start_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1244

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Category::start_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::start_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1391

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Category::end_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::end_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1391

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Category::start_el() should be compatible with Walker::start_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1391

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Category::end_el() should be compatible with Walker::end_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1391

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_CategoryDropdown::start_el() should be compatible with Walker::start_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1442

Strict Standards: Redefining already defined constructor for class wpdb in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/wp-db.php on line 306

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/cache.php on line 103

Strict Standards: Redefining already defined constructor for class WP_Object_Cache in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/cache.php on line 431

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/query.php on line 61

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/theme.php on line 1109

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Comment::start_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::start_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/comment-template.php on line 1266

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Comment::end_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::end_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/comment-template.php on line 1266

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Comment::start_el() should be compatible with Walker::start_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/comment-template.php on line 1266

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Comment::end_el() should be compatible with Walker::end_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/comment-template.php on line 1266

Strict Standards: Redefining already defined constructor for class WP_Dependencies in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/class.wp-dependencies.php on line 31

Strict Standards: Redefining already defined constructor for class WP_Http in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/http.php on line 61

Strict Standards: Non-static method K2::init() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/functions.php on line 31

Strict Standards: Non-static method K2::register_scripts() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 51

Strict Standards: call_user_func_array() expects parameter 1 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2Options::init() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/plugin.php on line 339

Strict Standards: call_user_func_array() expects parameter 1 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2Header::init() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/plugin.php on line 339

Strict Standards: Non-static method K2Header::get_header_width() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/header.php on line 8

Strict Standards: call_user_func_array() expects parameter 1 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::filter_post_comments() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/plugin.php on line 166

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458
2007 November Archive at Campaign Diaries
Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Strict Standards: call_user_func_array() expects parameter 1 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2Header::output_header_css() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/plugin.php on line 339

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003


Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
Monthly Archive for November, 2007


Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

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Democrats battle over health care, as a new poll shows Clinton competitive in Alabama

The hostage situation in Clinton’s Rochester, NH office appears to have been resolved as the police reportedly now has the hostage-taker in custody. No one appears to have gotten injured. This incident has also led to the disruption of the DNC meeting in Virginia at which presidential candidates were scheduled to speak.

  • Health care battle

The Democratic race this week centered on substantive discussion rather than process issues — for once. Following up her strategy at the Las Vegas debate where she had unexpectedly attacked Obama on health care, Clinton had been relentlessly criticisizing Obama this week for his health care plan which, she says, does not cover everyone, whereas hers (and Edwards’s, since Clinton and Edwards have very similar health care plans) does.

Today, the Clinton campaign demanded that Obama pull out an ad it has been running in New Hampshire, claiming that the ad is misleading in claiming his health care plan will “cover everyone.” In response, the Obama campaign has been pointing out that the Clinton campaign is getting desperate, and they criticized in turn the “mandates” proposed by the Clinton/Edwards plans.

But it appears Obama is under intense heat at the moment for being too cautious, and the Clinton campaign is widely using Paul Krugman’s latest NYT column that demolishes Obama on the health care issue. The first two paragraphs set the tone:

From the beginning, advocates of universal health care were troubled by the incompleteness of Barack Obama’s plan, which unlike those of his Democratic rivals wouldn’t cover everyone. But they were willing to cut Mr. Obama slack on the issue, assuming that in the end he would do the right thing.
Now, however, Mr. Obama is claiming that his plan’s weakness is actually a strength. What’s more, he’s doing the same thing in the health care debate he did when claiming that Social Security faces a “crisis” — attacking his rivals by echoing right-wing talking points.

Clinton’s camp seems to have sensed this is the moment to push an advantage on an issue that they have been playing since Las Vegas and gain an advantage both substantively (on an issue that Democratic voters follow closely) and on process (knock down Obama’s reputation as a hopeful idealist and show him to be to willing to compromise). These are definitely not the cliches of the two candidates — but there is plenty of evidence after all that Obama is as much of a triangulator as Clinton (for example on Iran).

  • More New Hampshire polls

Fox News is the third institute today to release a New Hampshire poll, after the ARG and Rasmussen surveys out this morning:

  • On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton gets 30%, followed by Obama at 23% and Edwards at 17%. Richardson runs strong, at 12%.
  • Among Republicans, it’s Romney at 29%, McCain at 21%, Giuliani at 19% and Huckabee only obtains 7%. Fred Thompson manages to rise to… 4%!

Fox News agrees with the trendline most other polls have seen in the Democratic race: Clinton is sliding. A quick look at the Pollster.com listings tells us this is the first time since July she has not had a double-digits lead (in an ARG poll that had Obama and Clinton tied!). The decrease of Clinton’s lead basically means that she will not be able to use New Hampshire as a firewall: An Iowa loss would immediately put her in major danger of losing New Hampshire as well. This was not the case a few weeks ago. On the Republican side, Fox News does not pick up the Huckabee surge — and gives very good news to McCain who needs to win here (even a strong second-place finish would work under special circumstances if the field is very muddied and confused).

  • Clinton competitive in… Alabama

And the trend continues in a new SUSA poll of Alabama: More and more states that were not in play in past cycles appear very competitive. And as has already been noted over and over again, Hillary Clinton runs much stronger than Obama in very red or Southern states (the same is not true in other regions of the country):

  • Only McCain manages a convincing lead against Hillary, 52% to 42%. Giuliani only leads her 50% to 45%, while Huckabee is a point ahead (47-46) and Clinton ties Romney at 47%.
  • Obama lags behind. He is crushed by Giuliani (55% to 38%), McCain (56% to 35%), Romney (51% to 41%), and Huckabee (48% to 41%).

This is truly a remarkable phenomenon. It appears that Clinton is so polarizing that she automatically federates all Democratic votes in these Southern states, even those that typically do not vote for Democrats anymore in federal races. This is not to say that the Democratic nominee will have much of a chance of carrying the state, but these are still remarkably strange results. Remember: Bush won Alabama 63% to 37%.


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ARG releases its monthly wave of early-state polls: Huckabee rises, and Iowa tied for both parties

It’s that time of the month when ARG gets every political junkie excited and releases its wave of 6 early state polls from Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Let’s go straight to the numbers, party by party.

Democrats: Obama edges out Clintin in IA, but she remains solid in NH and SC.

  • In Iowa, Barack Obama is now ahead 27% to Hillary’s 25%. Edwards is behind at 23%. In the second tier, there is some major movement as well: Biden, who has been rising for months, now reaches 8%, while Richardson collapses to 4% (12% last month).
  • This is a major slide by Clinton, and a big improvement for Obama. Two weeks ago, Clinton led 27% to 21% for Obama and 20% for Edwards. A month ago, it was Clinton at 32%, Obama at 22% and Edwards at 15%. The pattern is clear.
  • In New Hampshire, Clinton remains ahead — though she slides a bit here too. She leads 34%to Obama’s 23%. Edwards is at 17%. Richardson is not far behind, at 10%.
  • A month ago, it was Clinton at 40%, Obama at 22% and Edwards at 10% — so the race is tightening, as the Clinton-Edwards gap has been cut by half.
  • In South Carolina, however, Clinton manages to expand her lead. She reaches 45% (her all-time high in the state, versus 21% for Obama and 12% for Edwards. Biden is at 6%.

The numbers are very much in line with everything we have seen in the past few weeks. Clinton’s lead has shrunk in New Hampshire, and it is not clear now whether she would be able to sustain that lead if she lost Iowa to Obama — the state will likely not hold very well as a firewall. Iowa remains as tight as it has ever been, and Clinton, who had finally managed to build up a lead in September and October has now pretty much completely lost it. Joe Biden predicted yesterday that one of the top-three would not make it into the top three at Iowa… and he might very well be right given the nature of Iowa dynamics.

Could it all come down to South Carolina then, for Clinton? Don’t forget that South Carolina Democrats vote on the 29th, not the 19th, which would actually a blessing for Clinton if she loses the first two states as she would have time to regroup and launch an all-out campaign (think of what would have happened in the GOP race in 2000 if South Carolina had been 3 days after McCain’s New Hampshire triumph?). But we are not there yet, and it’s really useless to speculate about the race given that all eyes are - and will remain - on Iowa.

Republicans: Huckabee is up everywhere, Romney still looks strong

  • In Iowa, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee are stastically tied: 28% to 27%. At least this will prevent the media for touting a second poll with Huckabee ahead. Everone else is far behind, and Thompson does surprisingly well at 14%. Rudy Giuliani and mcCain are tied at 9%.
  • These numbers are similar to the ones ARG released two ago, when Romney was up 26-24 on Huckabee. But in a troubling sign for Romney, only 56% of his supporters are definite versus 89% of Huckabee’s!
  • In New Hampshire, however, Mitt Romney barely breaks a sweat: He is ahead 36% to Rudy Giuliani’s 22%. Huckabee is in double-digits for the first time at 13%, with McCain dropping to 11%. And in a shocking display weakness that we have grown accustomed to, Thompson gets 3%!
  • A month ago, Romney was ahead 30% to 23% on Giuliani. The big difference now is McCain’s drop from 17%, and Huckabee’s rise from 11%.
  • Rasmussen also released a NH poll this morning, and has sensibly similar findings: Romney at 34%, Rudy and McCain tied at 15% with Mike Huckabee only one point behind at 14%. Ron Paul has 8%, and Thompson 3%
  • In both the Rasmussen and the ARG surveys, Mitt Romney’s total reaches the highest level of support he has ever received from these polls.
  • Finally, there is South Carolina. ARG finds Romney dropping at Huckabee’s expense in what has essentially become a complete toss-up: Rudy Giuliani has 23%, Mitt Romney has 21%, Mike Huckabee has 18%, Thompson is at 13% and McCain at 10%.
  • A month ago, Mike Huckabee only had 5% — a shocking surge for a man whose campaign is based in Iowa at this point.

All in all, this confirms everything we have seen: The GOP race is very much up for grabs. If Romney wins Iowa, he will probably be unstoppable, as he will roll through victories in New Hampshire, Michigan, and probably South Carolina. If Huckabee wins in Iowa, that would throw everything wide open and Giuliani would see his chances increase to carry New Hampshire. At this point, Romney’s lead is expanding in that state which should give him hope to carry New Hampshire even if he loses Iowa. But that still seems a bit unlikely to me. His support is typically soften and could dissipate overnight — much like Howard Dean’s in 2004.

Just like in the Democratic race, the Iowa contest will be more crucial than we anticipated.


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Obama meets Mike Bloomberg… but loses Massachusetts to McCain

  • Obama and Bloomberg

A story breaking late night, and reported by Marc Ambinder: Barack Obama is having breakfast in New York tomorrow morning at 7:45am with Mike Bloomberg. So what, you ask? This is sure to spark some massive speculation: Would Bloomberg possibly endorse Obama? Would they take about the possibility of a vice-presidential spot?

Neither option is likely. After all, Bloomberg is still leaving the door open to a presidential run of his own: he is getting briefed on foreign policy, and met with Chuck Hagel this week, the senator most often mentioned as a possible VP pick for him (Hagel also ripped the Bush White House today). And if Bloomberg did not run and Obama became the nominee, it is likely he would look for someone with more gravitas on foreign policy matters — an area in which Obama will likely be accused of having too little experience.

Nonetheless, the story is already the lead on Drudge and will be the talk of the political world tomorrow. Bloomberg’s every action are provoking a massive media hysteria, so no reason that this one should not — and any attention this meeting get will be good for Obama, who is apparently unafraid of competing with Clinton on her own turf. The speculation that Bloomberg might be looking to associate with the Illinois Senator can only lead to positive buzz for Obama.

A new Massachusetts poll released by SUSA has Democrats losing one of the eight tried match-ups, and it is not Mitt Romney - the state’s former governor - that accomplishes that feat for Republicans:

  • John McCain comes out ahead Obama 47% to 44%. He is also competitive against Hillary Clinton, whom he trails 50% to 45%.
  • Rudy Giuliani comes close to Obama, trailing 46% to 44%, but he is clearly distanced by Clinton, 54% to 40%.
  • The other two Republicans are crushed: Clinton leads Romney 59% to 35% and Huckabee 61% to 31%, while Obama leads Romney 54% to 37% and Huckabee 57% to 27%.

McCain’s electability has been demonstrated over and over again by SUSA polls, but this is clearly one of his strongest showings: To be this competitive in one of the coutry’s most Democratic state is a very impressive showing. Also, this really does not speak well of Mitt Romney, who runs significantly weaker than both Giuliani and McCain. What kind of impression did he leave his state’s voters?


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Rudy Giuliani hit on ethics, as all eyes are back on his personal life

Yesterday’s YouTube debate attracted 4.5 million viewers on CNN, which is the record for any debate held on cable television. The Las Vegas debate Democrats held two weeks ago got a little more than 4 million viewers. So there is good reason to believe that a significant portion of Republican primary voters either watched the debate or will hear about it — and that is probably good news for Mike Huckabee who the media collectively annointed the winner of the debate.

The focus of the Republican race today was on Rudy Giuliani, who scrambled to explain yesterday’s Politico story that documented that he has “billed obscure city agencies for tens of thousands of dollars in security expenses amassed during the time when he was beginning an extramarital relationship with future wife Judith Nathan in the Hamptons.” Many of the receipts and documents that were billed to the city concerned travels to Southhampton where Judith Nathan had an apartment, and they reveal numerous Long Island visits throughout the summers of 99, 00 and 01.

Asked about this during the debate yesterday, Giuliani simply said it was “not true” without specifying what exactly he was denying — and he justified this with “security” costs. The issue, however, does not appear to be Giuliani’s use of funds, but that they were billed to obscure agencies instead around the city like the Office for People with Disabilities ($10,054), the Procurement Policy Board ($29.757) adn the Assigned Counsel Administrative Office ($400,000).

This has the potential to be disastrous for Giuliani. First, there are the obvious reasons that would hurt any candidate — personal use of government funds never looks good on a resume. But Giuliani is particularly vulnerable to such stories because the last thing he wants is Republican voters to be reminded his rocky personal life a month from the start of voting. He has admirably managed to calm qualms about his divorces and his estrangement from his children, all issues that people predicted would not sit well at all with primary voters. But he certainly could be vulnerable if more attention is devoted to his personal life — just as Romney would hate if a story broke that involved his being a Mormon.

As is expected, the New York tabloids pounced on the story, with the New York Post article’s headline reading “Rudy’s Hidden Love-Nest $$, Billed City 500G+ For Trips to Judi’s.”

Meanwhile, the Romney campaign got some good news. In the heels of yesterday’s debate in which Romney sought to present himself as the most conservative of the major candidates, he was endorsed today by David Keene. , the president of the American Conserative union. Keene emphasized that the conservative movement should unite behind Romney — certainly the message that Romney has been insisting on for months and that has been undermined recently by Huckabee’s surge.

Update: Giuliani went on CBS tonight to talk to Katie Couric about these allegations. He denied any wrongdoing and called this a “dirty trick.” Full transcript and video here.


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Congressional Republicans lose a candidate in New Jersey and gain one in Louisiana

  • Kennedy running in LA-Sen

Louisiana’s state Treasurer John Kennedy finally jumped in the Louisiana Senate race. He switched parties at the end of August, which was basically a confirmation that he was intending to challenge Senator Mary Landrieu. Since then, he won re-election for his seat in October (without facing any opposition though he ran ads seeking to prepare the ground for his Senate run).

In officially declaring his candidacy, Kennedy also released the results of a poll he commissioned with Zogby. The poll shows him in the lead, 45% against 38% for Landrieu. This is the first poll I believe we are seeing of the Louisiana race. Take it with a grain of salt for two reasons: (1) It is an internal poll, and (2) Louisiana has become notoriously difficult to poll since Katrina, and very few surveys are released from the state. However, there is no question that a 38% showing for an incumbent is bad news no matter the circumstances. 50% is the threshold under which an incumbent can expect a very tough race — and not breaking 40% is obviously a sign that things could go wrong very fast.

The race is currently ranked 5th on my Senate rankings as a “toss-up.” There have been conflicting signs as to how this race might play out: GOP Bobby Jindal and Democrat Mitch Landrieu (Mary’s brother) overwhelmingly won Governor and LG in October; last week, the runoff for the state legislature yielded conflicting messages once again, as Democrats held to majorities in both the House and the Senate but endured losses in both. Kennedy appears to have a very good at picking-up this seat, but we shall see how the race develops — and how other polls see the race.

  • Allen out in NJ-03

Meanwhile, the GOP is continuing to have recruiting trouble in open races. Republicans were touting the candidacy of state Senator Diane Allen in NJ-03, left open by Rep. Saxton’s retirement. But Diane Allen bowed out today, saying she would not run for the seat. Now, Democrats have their highly touted recruit running (state Senator John Adler, who was already a candidate before Saxton announced his retirement), but the GOP will have to scramble to find a candidate who can keep the seat in Republican hands.

NJ-03 is starting to resemble IL-11, a competitive district where the filing deadline has already passed. There, Democrats also got their first choice in (the senate Majority Leader) while the GOP’s favored candidate decided to stay out. It goes without saying that Democrats could make some major gains next November if they pick-up these districts that keep opening up and where the GOP is struggling to get its act together.


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Morning polls: Clinton holds on to shrinking leads in Iowa, New Hampshire

  • Clinton first in what is essentially a tied race

Rasmussen just came out with a new poll from Iowa, and it has the three major candidates within 3 points of one another! Any way you turn the numbers, it is a complete toss-up.

  • Hillary Clinton is at 27%, followed by Barack Obama at 25% and John Edwards at 24%. Richardson also gets in the double-digits at 10%, with Biden at 4%.
  • But in what is a very worrisome statistic for Clinton and a great one for Edwards, he is the top second choice of Iowa Democrats (28%). Obama is next at 18%, Clinton at 16% and Richardson at 15%. We know how important these numbers are in Iowa since many voters will have to caucus for a second choice.

  • Rasmussen proposes many combinations that all go to see that the race could go for any of these 3 candidates: Among voters who are definitely supporting their candidate, Clinton holds at 27%, Obama at 25% while Edwards is a bit weaker at 22%; Edwards takes the lead among those who have caucused before, and Obama is slightly ahead among those who are certain they will go to vote on January 3rd.

Two weeks ago, Rasmussen’s Iowa poll had Clinton ahead with 29% followed by Edwards’s 25% and Obama’s 24%. That result was a drop from Clinton’s 33-22 lead in the October survey. Clearly, the Iowa race has tightened considerably in the past few weeks. The one reason why Clinton must be happy that she held on to a slight lead here is that this will prevent the narrative of Clinton’s collapse of continuing to spread as it started to after last week’s Washington Post poll.

  • Clinton, Romney ahead in New Hampshire

A new Suffolk University poll was just released today and it has Clinton and Romney ahead in double-digits:

  • Among Democrats, Clinton gets 34% of the vote, ahead of Obama’s 22%. The last Suffolk poll had Clinton up 18%, but it was taken in June, so it is useless to use this to judge trendlines.
  • Among Republicans, Romney is ahead significantly, 34% to 20% for Rudy Giuliani. McCain is weaker than usual at 13%, with Ron Paul at 8% and Huckabee at 7%. Fred Thompson managed to beat his record of New Hampshire… dropping down at 2%!

Needless to say that Thompson would be out of the race overnight if he gets 2% on January 8th! Romney should be satisfied to see he is holding to such a big lead with a little more than a month to go before voting; is 14% a big enough edge for him to stay on top it if he loses Iowa? His one advantage is that his loss would mean a Huckabee victory, and thus even if Romney goes down it is unclear whether Giuliani would get any boost and overtake him — so it will not be the same scenario as Kerry’s surge in 2004.

As for Democrats, this is in the smaller end of the Clinton leads, and she used to be up by much more in New Hampshire. The same question holds for her that I just asked for Romney: Is a double-digit lead large enough for her to come out with a win here even if she loses in Iowa?

  • Young still in danger in Alaska

However unlikely it appeared a few months ago that Alaska’s at large seat would become a top battleground, it appears that Don Young’s involvement in the corruption scandal that is rocking the state is putting him in big trouble in next year’s election. A new poll out today has him trailing his two Democratic challengers: 45% to 37% against Diana Benson, and 50% to 35% against Ethan Berkowitz.

This is an internal poll conducted for Diane Benson’s campaign — and it is interesting that Benson, the 2006 nominee for the seat, chose to release it given that she runs a bit weaker than Berkowitz. With most commentators paying more attention to Berkowitz, Benson is trying to show that she is also in a great position to beat Young and she should be given a chance. And as always with internal polls, take them with a great of salt, as they are not necessarily indicative of what independent polls might find. But this is the second poll that has Young trailing, so we have to look at this seat as a top pick-up opportunity for Democrats.


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The Republican debate on CNN reminds us this is a race with no front-runner

We are five weeks from Iowa, and the Republican debate tonight showcased the absence of a front-runner in the GOP race. Compare this spectacle with the Democratic debates of the past few months, where every candidate draws fire on Hillary Clinton, hoping to finally make her slip. There was no such dynamic tonight, as there was no man to take down. Instead, fights erupted between different groups of candidates, reflecting the tensions of the campaign trail.

Mitt Romney was involved in most of these tense exchanges, but it was mostly his own doing: He got engaged in verbal duals with Giuliani (as he did right at the beginning), McCain (on waterboarding) and Huckabee (on illegal immigration). Romney still needs to raise his profile, and he also needs to prove that he is a consistent conservative. His past was brought up numerous times today, for example when Anderson Cooper asked him about a 1994 statement in which he said that he looked forward to the day gays and lesbians serve in the military. Romney is always very uncomfortable in such moments, and it showed as he got stiff and repeated a few times his dubious explanation for his change of position.

To compensate, Romney attempted to out-conservative his opponents; he often did not get the last word (McCain was clearly getting the better of him on the torture issue, partly because of the look of utter contempt on McCain’s face as he expressed his “astonishment” that Romney would refuse to ban torture) but he wants to believe voters will reward him for sticking to his guns.

The exchange on immigration with Giuliani will probably be the most quoted of the night, as Romney accused Giuliani of being too soft on the issue and having let New York become a “sanctuary city.” Giuliani replied by attacking Romney’s own record and brought up a story that Romney had hired illegal immigrants: “I would say he had sanctuary mansion, not just sanctuary city.” But Fred Thompson used this opening to pounce on Rudy in what was a clear reference to Bernie Kirkik: “I am a little surprised that he says that we’re responsible for the people we hire, I think we’ve all had people that we have hired that, in retrospect, probably was a bad decision.”

Rudy Giuliani looked weakened after that initial exchange with Romney. He seemed destabilized by the end of the back-and-forth as his responses quickened. A quick look at conservative blogs suggests they hated Giuliani’s answer on whether every word of the Bible is true (for example Erick’s post on Red State)– though I would have trouble judging how that answer plays with primary voters myself. All in all, Giuliani spent much more time than he would like discussing social issues he is uncomfortable dealing with. Giuliani was also put on the defensive over the new explosive story reported by the Politico today about his trips to the Hamptons in 2001; we will surely hear more about this in coming days so I will leave it be for now.

John McCain picked fights as well, and did a good job of looking to be right up there in the top tier. He for example drew out Ron Paul on the Iraq War. He looked at his best on national security issues, and took credit for the surge that he insisted is working. He even managed to silence the public’s boos on immigration and got out of that sequence alive. But he often looked too paternal, correcting his opponents, sighing; that could go well with the public if McCain is perceived as above the fray, but it also made it seem at times that McCain’s time has passed.

Huckabee, as always, had many clever one-liners, though he also had to fight to defend parts of his record that opponents call liberal, especially on illegal immigration where he explained why he gave tuition breaks to illegal immigrants. Romney attacked him harshly, and this is an issue that is crucial to the Republican base; let’s see if Romney picks this up on the trail in Iowa now to use immigration to deflate Huckabee’s support. But a large part of the debate centered on social issues which is what Huckabee is best in, and what is opponents are most uncomfortable with — so this allowed him to shine. After all, he needs to get almost all of the social conservative vote in Iowa if he wants to pull a win there.

As for Thompson, one moment summed up the debate for him. The video his campaign had prepared was the only one that was negative. It attacked Romney and Huckabee’s past position on abortion and on taxes. (1) Notice that Thompson did not attack Giuliani, who has a ton of past statements that can be used against him. Explanation: Thompson needs the conservative votes that are going to Romney and Huckabee; he was supposed to be the conservative savior here, not them. (2) Notice that neither Huckabee nor Romney attacked Thompson in their rebuttals to his charge, basically demonstrating how small a factor Thompson has become in the race. There is no need to make him more threatening than he is by drawing him in a fight.

Update: Some post-debate controversy. First up, the gay general who asked the question about gays in the military has been revealed to be part of Hillary Clinton’s steering committee, and CNN has already apologized for featuring his question, saying they were not aware of this (the man was also a Kerry supporter in 2004). We should say however that there were some boos against the general while he was speaking — and those who were booing were not aware of the general’s political affiliations, so this certainly does not account for the undignified picture of Republicans (who claim to be the party of the military) booing a retired general.

Second, Anderson Cooper is also getting some heat for asking no question about important issues like health care and choosing instead to ask question after question on things like the confederate flag or the Bible (and there were may of these, the point being that one or two would be acceptable since they do feature in GOP voters’ mind, but there was just too much time devoted to them). Now CNN’s political ticker has the silliest item up:

The issue of healthcare has sparked some of the most heated debate this campaign season on the Democratic front, but the Republican presidential contenders seemed to all but ignore what is considered a major priority for many voters…
Candidates often find a way to include their talking points and campaign priorities in debate answers regardless of what the question posed to them actually is. Since no question was posed to the candidates about their healthcare reform plans, they all but ignored the issue choosing instead to emphasize their stances on illegal immigration and the war in Iraq.

“Since no question was posed…”? What is this? Why did CNN ask question after question about immigration — and none about health care if it is such an important issue to voters?! This has got to be the most ridiculous attempt to justify flawed questions (it is also just plain wrong, as Romney brought up health care and how he implemented it in Massachusetts).


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Presidential diary: The Michigan mess, and new polls

  • Michigan chaos: Obama, Edwards will stay off the ballot

The Michigan primary is now set for January 15th, but there was still some controversy about whose name would be on the ballot. All the candidates but Clinton and Dodd withdrew their names at the beginning of October to punish Michigan for organizing a “rogue primary”. But the Michigan House passed a bill last week putting the names of Edwards, Obama, Biden and Kucinich back on the ballot forcefully — which would have put all 6 candidates in front of voters.

But the state Senate refused to pass the bill today, with the Republican Majority Leader saying the Democrats can’t agree on what they want. So this pretty much ends the primary polemic: Only Clinton and Dodd will be on the ballot. This is a small blow to Clinton: She was pretty much guarateed a win here, especially as none of the candidates are allowed to campaign here and challenge Clinton’s lead. And defeating Obama and Edwards here on the 15th could have allowed her to recover some momentum if she stumbles in Iowa and New Hampshire. But it is unlikely she would get much coverage of a win against Dodd here; perhaps a small paragraph in the stories written about the GOP race.

  • GOP race all over the place

Here is a new poll from South Carolina, and it has the Republican race as scattered as it could be. In the heels of worrying numbers for Romney in Iowa this morning, a new poll has him… leading in South Carolina! This is very rare, as Romney usually is weak in the state and only ARG polls have given him the lead. But he only comes in with 17%, in front of Thompson’s 15%, Huckabee’s 13%, McCain’s 11% and Giuliani’s 9%.

The field is very fractured, and will essentially be completely reshuffled by January 19th based on Iowa, New Hampshire and Michigan results. It does seem that no candidate will be able to build any kind of advantage in the state, which will give a huge boost to whoever manages to win the earlier states. The tragic news for Romney is that he is suddenly rising in South Carolina just when his lead in Iowa (which had held steady for months and months) is being challenged.

  • New York is Clinton country

SUSA came out with a new poll from New York today, and has Clinton crushing all her GOP rivals, including Rudy Giuliani. But Rudy manages to tie Obama:

  • Hillary leads both Giuliani and McCain 56% to 37%; against Romney, Hillary is ahead 62% to 31% and dominates Huckabee 65% to 27%.
  • Obama runs weaker, and cannot muster a lead against Giuliani, as the two are tied at 46%. Obama leads McCain 49% to 43%, though he manages crushing leads against Romney 55% to 34% and Huckabee 58% to 29%.

Giuliani has long argued that he would put the coastal states (NY, CT, NJ) in play, and polls have confirmed that he might though he would have trouble if Democrats nominate Clinton. What is interesting though is that McCain runs roughly equal with Rudy, suggesting that Rudy does not have a particular advantage in the state, but it is his supposed moderate profile that is playing well with Northeastern voters. Democrats do not appear to have much to worry about in NY, even in case of a Obama-Giuliani match-up. This is Rudy’s home-state, and Obama will only have room to grow here once he introduces himself to voters.


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More evidence of a Huckabee surge: First poll has him leading in Iowa!

Huckabee has taken the lead in an Iowa poll for the first time — and this is also the first survey I have seen since the spring in which Mitt Romney is not leading the caucuses. Rasmussen has come out with a new poll from the state and it shows a stunning turn-around:

  • Mike Huckabee comes in at 28%, followed by Romney at 25%. Giuliani is far behind at 12%.
  • The previous Rasmussen poll was taken two small weeks ago, and it had Romney far far ahead at 29% versus 16% for Huckabee.
  • At least some good news for Romney is that 25% fo voters who might change their mind name him as their second-choice, versus 17% for Huckabee. But 53% of Huckabee voters say they are definitely voting for him, versus 48% for Romney.

Huckabee’s lead over Romney is within the margin of error, but the fact that he had an incredible surge (-13 to +3, for a 16 point swing) is not. And it is confirmed by yesterday’s numbers as well, in which he surged to 2 points behind Romney.

As I said yesterday in my assessment of what this might mean to the GOP race, Huckabee and Romney are now going to fight it out for the right to be Giuliani’s alternative — and Romney better win this in Iowa if he wants to have any chance of being the GOP nominee. He might be the most likely to win the nomination, but that depends on his result here. And don’t forget: No one had managed to challenge Romney since the spring so much that Thompson, Giuliani and McCain had chosen to not compete in the Ames straw poll rather than face a humiliating defeat.

And in another sign that things are changing fast in the Republican race, Mike Huckabee is starting to pick up some major endorsements. Today, Florida’s state Senate Majority Leader Daniel Webster announced he would support Huckabee, praising him for his leadership in Arkansas. One of the main obstacles to Huckabee had been the reluctance of people who should be enthusiastic about him to support him given the sense that he had no chance of winning the nomination. With his Iowa surge, that is likely to change very soon — Huckabee has embarked on a stunning momentum cycle that could take him even further up.

One possible explanation of Romney’s decline is given by a new New York Times article that says that Romney’s Mormon faith is proving to hard to overcome and is tremendously helping Huckabee: “Mr. Huckabee’s rise in Iowa as been fueled by evangelical Christians, who believe Mormonism runs counter to Christian orthodoxy.” One Huckabee supporter asks whether Mr. Romney’s prayers would “even get through.” To be fair, Huckabee is also probably the most consistent social conservative among the top candidates, and the one who speaks the most naturally about his faith and how it would influence his presidency.


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Senate news: No more challenger in Tennessee, but there is Mississippi to compensate

  • Tennessee Democrat drops out

Mike McWherter, the leading Democratic challenger for the Senate seat of Lamar Alexander, just withdrew from the race, explaining his move with family considerations. Democrats never had much hope for this race, though they were at least confident that McWhether would self-fund his candidacy given his personal wealth. I had ranked the seat 17th most vulnerable in my most recent rankings, but at least the Democrats had a candidate that would have been able to take advantage of a macaca-like moment by the incumbent.

So this is not major congressional news, but insofar as the DSCC prides itself of “expanding the map” and putting many seats in play, it ought to be mentioned that they have not gotten very far in Tennessee.

  • Mississippi Update

News is obviously unfolding fast in Mississippi, and the consensus this Tuesday morning appears to be that Democrats would try and challenge Barbour in court if Lott resigns in 2007 and Barbour schedules the special election next November. Jim Hood, the current state Attorney General, is siding with the argument that a special election would be necessary within 100 days and is not ruling out legal action. This could turn into chaos pretty fast.

As for the candidates, the WaPo’s Fix reports that Schumer has already spoken to Mike Moore, who released a statement in the evening: “As for me, I appreciate all the calls I have received from friends, colleagues, and supporters today encouraging me to run. I will make my decision soon.” Former Governor Ronnie Musgrove had already said yesterday he was interested and would take a decision soon as well. The Fix also says the current AG Jim Hood will not run, further restricting the list of potential candidates on the Democratic side.


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Huckabee surging in yet another poll: A shake-up in the GOP nomination race?

On the heels of this morning’s Iowa poll that had Huckabee tying Romney for the lead, we now get a new Insider Advantage poll of Florida that has Huckabee surging to second place:

  • Giuliani leads with 26%, followed by Huckabee at 17%, McCain at 13%, Romney at 12% and Thompson at 9%.
  • A month ago, Huckabee only had 5% and was fifth, behind Giuliani’s 29%, Thompson’s 19%, Romney’s 16% and McCain’s 10%.

The reason Huckabee’s chances were minimized until today was: Where does he go even if he wins Iowa? He had little support other places, and no organization. This poll suggests that is changing, and Huckabee could be propelled at the top if he prevails in the caucuses and brings Romney down. And this is true even if another poll out today from Florida (this one from CNN, with a bigger margin of error) has very different numbers: Giuliani at 38%, Romney at 17% and Huckabee at 9%. Huckabee used to be a blip in the polls, now he is in the same range as Romney and the others, an ideal position from which to surge ahead if he gets momentum.

Romney emerged as a strong contender in the spring because he was believed to be the most acceptable to conservatives given the other options (McCain and Giuliani). But we always knew Romney’s position was fragile, and that many conservatives would love going for someone else. Thompson got in late and never caught on, but now Huckabee is on fire and is threatening Romney’s entire strategy. And if he does appear viable, Huckabee could start getting many social conservative endorsements from people who were reluctant to support him at first because he did not seem to have a chance to win the nomination.

Now, Romney and Huckabee appear to be fighting in Iowa for the right to be Giuliani’s conservative opponent, as there is only room for one of them. Giuliani is for now rooting for a Huckabee victory, since he would then have a good chance of capturing New Hampshire and killing Huckabee off before he gets a chance to find his footing, while a Romney win in Iowa would make it probable that the former MA governor also gets New Hampshire. But Giuliani should be careful: Given Huckabee’s insane momentum, he could very well pull a Kerry and surge ahead of the pack in New Hampshire.

The problem now for Huckabee: He is becoming a target, and he will face a lot of scrutiny throughout December. The Club for Growth regards him as its number one enemy, and will look to bring Huckabee back down before it is too late; if Huckabee falls victim to attacks in the next few weeks, we’ll know he peaked a little too early.

  • California strongly Democratic

Many states have been looking much tighter this year than in previous cycles, but California is not one of them. Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama maintain double-digit leads, consistent with the margins Gore and Kerry enjoyed against Bush:

  • Clinton leads Rudy Giuliani 52% to 41%. It’s 53% to 41% against McCain, 57% to 34% against Romney, and 58% to 31% against Huckabee.
  • Obama’s numbers are roughly similar: 49% to 42% against Giuliani, 52% to 39% against McCain, 57% to 32% against Obama, and 58% to 29% against Huckabee.

Giuliani polls marginally better than the other GOPers, but his edge over McCain remains within the margin of error, and he only breaks within 8% against Obama. The question, of course, is whether Democrats can expect to get all 55 electoral votes that are supposed to go with a California win… The initiative to divide the ECs by district has been revived, and if passed it would give the GOP about 20 of the 55 electoral votes. That would make the double digit leads Democrats are enjoying pretty much useless.


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Presidential diary: A new Iowa poll, and the benefits of self-funding!

  • Iowa still all tied up… for both parties!

It is only when we don’t get Iowa polls that we realize how much we need them. And today, we are treated with a new poll that has things all tied up, the poll comes from Strategic Vision, a GOP-leaning firm:

  • On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are tied at 29%, and Edwards is at 23% — needless to say, the three remain within the margin of error.
  • On the Republican side, Mitt Romney is now in a statistical tie with Mike Huckabee, 26% to 24%. Giuliani is at 14%, Thompson at 10%, and McCain at 7%.

First up, these numbers confirm that Huckabee has become a contender for an Iowa win that would likely be fatal to Romney’s chances. In the last Strategic Vision poll released only two weeks ago, Romney was up 30% to 19%. Huckabee has erased a double-digit deficit in two weeks — and this is confirmed by other polls. Mitt Romney will have to find a way to fight back, but his job will be very difficult as Giuliani and Thompson will also likely take aim at him, hoping to bring him down. For the smaller Iowa candidates who are no longer hoping for a win, a Romney loss would be as good as they could possibly hope for, especially if Huckabee — who does not have much organization anywhere else — is the one to bring him down.

As for Democrats, well, the story has been the same for months now: Iowa is the only state in which Clinton does not have any kind of lead and, conveniently for Edwards and Obama, it is also the first voting state. The last Strategic Vision poll had Clinton at 29% and Obama at 27%, with Edwards at 20%. At this point Clinton has to be comforted to see she has not fallen down further given predictions of impending doom for her campaign in the state, and the Obama campaign will be very satisfied to see it is now consistently coming ahead of Edwards — it was not the case until recently.

  • Gallup has Democrats leading

Gallup came out with a new general election poll, and it looks good for Democrats as Clinton and Obama lead 7 match-ups against Republicans, the eight one being tied:

  • Hillary Clinton leads Rudy Giuliani 49% to 44% and John McCain 50% to 44%. She has massive leads against Mitt Romney (54% to 38%) and Fred Thompson 53% to 40%.
  • Barack Obama only ties Giuliani at 45%, but he leads against McCain 47% to 44%, against Romney 52% to 35% and against Thompson 51% to 38%.

The Thompson-Clinton match-up is the only one that has significantly changed since the July poll in which Thompson was only led 48% to 45% — which suggests Thompson’s decline as much as anything else.

  • Giuliani increases NH spending… and Romney ups him

With one month to go, the benefits of Romney self-funding his campaign are becoming increasingly apparent. His rivals had always complained that Romney would just spend more money compared to them, and that whenever they came out with an ad Romney would just donate to himself to ensure he had an ad to answer. And that seems to have happened in New Hampshire. Marc Ambinder reports that Giuliani has boosted his spending 60% this week: His campaign is now spending $319,000 on the Boston market alone (which reaches New Hampshire) and $173,965 in the Manchester market. But Romney is now at $705,100 (Boston) and $464,040 (Manchester) in those two markets.

Romney is massively outspending Giuliani. And given that their cash on hands total were roughly similar at the end of the third quarter, the only explanation is self-funding. And consider that Romney is spending about $1.2 million a week now in New Hampshire (he really does not have that much room to grow, however, since he has pretty much saturated the Manchester market already).



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    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election night cheat sheet

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Final ratings: Democrats brace for historic losses

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • What to watch for down-ballot

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EDT/-4.0/DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

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