Gregoire has been popular with the Democratic base due to a variety of measures (expanded health insurance for children, Puget Sound cleanup, transportation bill, funding for education initiatives, two gay & lesbian civil rights bills) she has passed. The local economy is solid, making it a non-issue. She even co-opted a Republican supported idea to make a “Rainy Day” fund in case state revenues go south. The lawsuit she filed against Bush’s restrictions on SCHIP pits her in a high-profile battle over children’s health against an unpopular administration. In a Democratic leaning state and a horrible political environment for Republicans, I think she has done enough to win. The challenge will be getting the message out. Gregoire’s Achilles heel is that she has been weak at PR and communicating her agenda. Rossi, in contrast, is good at PR. However, at this point Gregoire would have to make major mistakes in her reelection campaign to lose. That is possible but unlikely.