Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-settings.php on line 512

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-settings.php on line 527

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-settings.php on line 534

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-settings.php on line 570

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Page::start_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::start_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1199

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Page::end_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::end_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1199

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Page::start_el() should be compatible with Walker::start_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1199

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Page::end_el() should be compatible with Walker::end_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1199

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_PageDropdown::start_el() should be compatible with Walker::start_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1244

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Category::start_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::start_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1391

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Category::end_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::end_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1391

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Category::start_el() should be compatible with Walker::start_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1391

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Category::end_el() should be compatible with Walker::end_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1391

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_CategoryDropdown::start_el() should be compatible with Walker::start_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/classes.php on line 1442

Strict Standards: Redefining already defined constructor for class wpdb in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/wp-db.php on line 306

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/cache.php on line 103

Strict Standards: Redefining already defined constructor for class WP_Object_Cache in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/cache.php on line 431

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/query.php on line 61

Deprecated: Assigning the return value of new by reference is deprecated in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/theme.php on line 1109

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Comment::start_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::start_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/comment-template.php on line 1266

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Comment::end_lvl() should be compatible with Walker::end_lvl(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/comment-template.php on line 1266

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Comment::start_el() should be compatible with Walker::start_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/comment-template.php on line 1266

Strict Standards: Declaration of Walker_Comment::end_el() should be compatible with Walker::end_el(&$output) in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/comment-template.php on line 1266

Strict Standards: Redefining already defined constructor for class WP_Dependencies in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/class.wp-dependencies.php on line 31

Strict Standards: Redefining already defined constructor for class WP_Http in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/http.php on line 61

Strict Standards: Non-static method K2::init() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/functions.php on line 31

Strict Standards: Non-static method K2::register_scripts() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 51

Strict Standards: call_user_func_array() expects parameter 1 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2Options::init() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/plugin.php on line 339

Strict Standards: call_user_func_array() expects parameter 1 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2Header::init() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/plugin.php on line 339

Strict Standards: Non-static method K2Header::get_header_width() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/header.php on line 8

Strict Standards: call_user_func_array() expects parameter 1 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::filter_post_comments() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/plugin.php on line 166

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458

Strict Standards: array_filter() expects parameter 2 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2::strip_trackback() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-content/themes/k2/app/classes/k2.php on line 458
2007 October Archive at Campaign Diaries
Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Strict Standards: call_user_func_array() expects parameter 1 to be a valid callback, non-static method K2Header::output_header_css() should not be called statically in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/plugin.php on line 339

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003


Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
Monthly Archive for October, 2007


Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

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Of the benefits of being the frontrunner

Less than 24 hours after being hammered and attacked from all during the Philadelphia debate, Hillary Clinton has demonstrated the benefits of being the frontrunner: You get good news so often (a good poll, an endorsement), that you can change the subject pretty quickly.

  • Damage control

To control what can still be controlled after yesterday’s debate, Hillary Clinton issued a statement today embracing the Spitzer plan to give illegal immigrants driving licenses. This is a courageous move (Obama is also in favor of it, but did not say a word during the debate yesterday), and one that has could greatly hurt Hillary in the general election… So apparently the Clinton campaign decided that they could not give the impression that they were evading the answer and had to figure out something, and decided to come in favor of it. The Republicans are likely to prepare their ads right now blasting Hillary for this, but good for Hillary for taking a principled stance on this one… though she was forced by circumstances as her rival campaigns kept attacking her today for not giving a straight answer yesterday. Her campaign also released a video called “The Politics of Pile-on” to make her look like a victim… You can watch it here.

  • Union endorsement

Clinton got one of the most valuable union endorsements today when the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) announced they would support her. The AFSCME is the second-largest union nationwide, representing 1.4 million workers, and this is obviously a major boost for Hillary. Gerard McEntee, the union president, had some very interesting lines in his speech today, directly referring to yesterday’s debate:

We need someone who knows how to fight and knows how to win. Sisters and Brothers, Senator Clinton is a seasoned fighter. Believe me, she knows how to fight and she knows how to win. Some of you may have seen last night’s debate. Six guys against Hillary. I’d call that a fair fight. This is one strong woman.

Obama’s campaign immediately and surprisingly went after this endorsement, with the spokesperson saying, “We understand that Gerry McEntee and Bill Clinton have a long and close relationship so the push for a Clinton endorsement is no surprise.” It is rare for candidate to question endorsements, but Obama seems to be on attack-mode these days… Whatever the reason behind the AFSCME’s decision, there is no question this allowed Clinton to get some relief today and to change the subject at least slightly away from her debate performance and her illegal immigrants answer (though the AFSCME is lobbying in NY to get Spitzer’s plan passed, so interesting connection). The big question: Did Clinton time this on purpose (or get the union to announce it today) the day after the debate?

  • Clinton trounces Giuliani in new poll

Pew specializes in detailed large sample surveys, and it released today a massive poll with tons of internals. The bottom line: Things look great for Democrats. The poll is particularly important because it surveyed 2000 people (double the usual), including 500 on cell phones, and the margin of error is a small 2.5%. Some highlights:

  • Hillary Clinton beats Rudy Giuliani 51% to 43% in a head-to-head match-up, a large margin particularly because Clinton crosses 50%.
  • The internals of the match-up are particularly interesting: Clinton leads by 20 points among women, and trails by only 5 among men. There is no doubt that she will be very strong in the general election if she maintains such an edge among women… Remember that Kerry had not managed to do that in 2004, one of the reasons for his loss. Clinton also crushes Giuliani among African-Americans (Giuliani only gets 8%), Hispanics (57-38), and she wins all age-groups! In particular, she leads the 18-30 age groups by a massive 19 points, 59% to 40% (Among women of that age group, Hillary gets 66% to Rudy’s 32%!).
  • The most surprising result is no doubt that Clinton leads in all four regions (East, West, MidWest and South) and that she leads by 11% in the South, her biggest edge! She also does much better than Democrats usually do in rural areas, only trailing by 3 (47-44). Make sure to check all the other internals.
  • Another very interesting finding is that 76% of Clinton backers say they are voting “for Hillary” rather than against the Republican (only 20). This is the highest affirmative vote a Democrats has obtained since Pew first asked the question in 1988. The previous high was 66% for Clinton in 1996. As a comparison, only 43% of Kerry voters were voting “for Kerry” in 2004. The reverse holds among Giuliani backers, where 46% are voting “for Giuliani” and 50% “against Clinton” — once again a record of negative voting for GOPers since 1988. This underscores how much this race is about Hillary Clinton.
  • A quick look at the nomination numbers: Hillary leads 45% to Obama’s 24% to Edwards’s 12%. Giuliani is at 31% while McCain has risen back to second place at 18%, ahead of Thompson’s 17%. Romney has gone down to 9%, tied with Huckabee who has gone up to 8%.

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Morning polls: Fletcher six days away from being crushed

  • Kentucky Governor

There was never much suspense in the Kentucky Governor’s race. In fact, Democratic challenger Beshear seems to be increasing his massive lead in the closing days of the campaign. SUSA now has him him leading Governor Fletcher 60% to 36%! Certainly not where an incumbent wants to be six days from the election. Fletcher has only reached 40% once in any public poll released over the past few months, and how he is supposed to win with that? SUSA also pits his approval rating at 36%… coincidentally the number he gets in the trial heat!

Don’t forget that recent indications are that the GOP’s woes in the governor’s race and Fletcher’s major judicial problems are now spilling over to other races, as the Republican brand in the state seems very damaged. Not only is State Minority Leader polling very weak numbers, but Hillary Clinton is leading Rudy Giuliani in this reliably red state.

  • Quinnipiac’s new national numbers

Quinnipiac had been kind to Democrats over the past few months, but the GOP is slowly inching back into contention. In the latest poll, Hillary appears a bit weaker in the general election than usual, though not in the primary race. We shall see in the coming days and weeks if yesterday’s debate had any impact on the race. Rundown of the numbers:

  • In the Democratic primary, Clinton is way ahead with 47%, against 21% for Obama and 12% for Edwards.
  • In the Republican primary, Rudy Giuliani is at 27%, with 17% for Fred Thompson and 14% for Mitt Romney.
  • Giuliani polls the strongest in the g-e, as he edges out Hillary 45-43 and Edwards 44-41. Obama, however, edges out Rudy 43-42.
  • John McCain ties all three Dems, at 44% with Clinton, at 43% with Obama, and at 42% with Edwards.
  • Against Thompson, Clinton leads 46% to 41%, Obama 45% to 37%, and Edwards 46% to 36%.
  • Against Romney, Clinton is up 48% to 38%, Obama is up 46% to 36% and Edwards 47% to 34%.

These are not bad numbers for Democrats, nor for Hillary, who is the only candidate of either field to reach 48% in any match-up. But we have grown used over the past 3 months to see the Democratic candidates leading Republicans, even if the leads are very small. There does have seem to be a small movement back towards the GOP in recent weeks. I’m at a loss to say what exactly happened in the absence of major controversies or of major news.


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Philadelphia debate: No more Mike Gravel, and no more of Clinton’s laugh

Tonight’s debate has been the most engaged of all the debates so far. The quick summary: Clinton attacked Bush; Obama, Edwards and Dodd attacked Clinton; Kucinich attacked everybody; and Biden delivered clever one-liners. The result: Obama and Edwards did what they needed to do, but Clinton (barely) managed to stay afloat… though she opened a door to the GOP on immigration.

Some highlights:

  • Barack Obama and John Edwards were all over Hillary Clinton tonight. They needed to attack her strongly considering how much strength she has been building up, and they barely let her breath in the first half of the debate. Most of the attacks came around Clinton’s vote in favor of the Iran resolution, and Edwards had the strongest line: “So.. to put pressure on the Bush Administration is … to vote yes on a resolution that [looked as if it] was written by the neocons? Has anyone read this thing?” And Dodd added, “What you didn’t learn back in ‘02, you should have learned now.”
  • Unlike the Dartmouth debate, Barack Obama was much more forceful this time around. He took swipes at Clinton about the Iraq War and about Iran, but it is after Clinton refused to say that she would release the archives paper of her time as First Lady that he turned towards her to say, “This is an example of not turning the page.” That was particularly out of character for Obama, as he volunteered an attack and seized on a passing opportunity to jump on Hillary.
  • Edwards attacked Clinton more sharply — perhaps at times doing a bit too much, and repeating his points too often, compared to Obama’s harsh but overall more subtle criticisms. He repeatedly linked Clinton to the status-quo, and attacked her for double-talk: “I think the American people, given this historic moment in our country’s history, deserve a president of the United States that they know will tell them the truth, and won’t say one thing one time and something different at a different time.”
  • Hillary Clinton was clearly on the defensive throughout the first hour — how could she not be when she was being attacked this consistently by Obama and Edwards, and also by Chris Dodd? Bill Richardson rescued her, calling upon more civility and less negative attacks, but that was not going to be enough. Hillary managed to not take any baits and answered everything and everyone the best she could. Her main strategy: Take the conversation back to George Bush. She mentioned the president many many more times than anyone else on stage, and she was clearly running against the current Administration and “its cronies.” Her message: I am not afraid of Obama and Edwards, and I have more pressing issues to take care of.
  • Hillary was successful in staying afloat, but we have to wonder whether the attack line on Iran will end up functioning. Obama has his own huge problems on Iran, but Hillary is not attacking him on that — and ultimately Obama did not vote for the Kyl-Lieberman amendment. It has now been a month since the vote, and Hillary is getting increasingly bad press because of it. Will Obama and Edwards manage to make this stick as proof that Hillary does not have the right judgment to become President, and that she is too beholden to moderation and calculation and hackishness? They have not been able to for now, but if there is one thing they might sink Clinton on, it’s this.
  • And that brings us to the other main topic that will be remembered from tonight: The Dodd-Clinton back-and-forth on illegal immigration. Asked whether she stood by her statement in a NH newspaper that Spitzer’s plan to give undocumented workers driving licenses “made sense,” Clinton said it did… When pressed by Chris Dodd who appeared to be one of the only Democrats to oppose the idea, saying a driver’s license is a privilege, not a right, Clinton refused to say whether she actually supported the idea — just that she understood its need. A very weak difference… and Clinton was obviously trying to avoid answering the question. Edwards called her out on this, accusing her of giving two positions in the space of a minute. I personally am more sympathetic to Clinton on this one: No one else on stage defended Spitzer’s plan, and Clinton took a huge political risk by saying good things about it. And though she strangely did not endorse it, I am at least glad she recognized that it is a good plan. For Edwards and Obama did not go there…
  • Make no mistake about it… you can be sure that the GOP will attack Clinton on this for weeks to come (just look at how much Chris Matthews was obsessed by this in post-debate coverage): the GOP has little to run on in 2008, and immigration is one of the only topics they have left in which they believe the voters trust them and agree with their positions. And the electorate probably strongly disagrees with giving illegal immigrants driver’s licenses… so Clinton will be attacked on this very heavily, and this will probably feature in the general election campaign the GOP will run against her if she becomes the nominee.
  • And credits to Joe Biden for delivering the most memorable one-liners, as always. This time, it was about Rudy Giuliani: “There are only three things he makes in a sentence… A noun and a verb and 9/11.” What is most surprising about this is how little Democratic candidates go after Giuliani… Obama went after Mitt Romney twice, but Democrats are mostly leaving Giuliani aside.
  • Meanwhile, Mike Gravel is rightly protesting his exclusion from the debate. He is, after all, a former Senator, and he has served longer than John Edwards.

(In case you want to refresh your memory on the Dartmouth debate, here is the rundown).


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Senate news: Democrats get a new candidate in North Carolina

  • Kay Hagan runs in North Carolina

Democrats have finally got an elected official to jump in the North Carolina Senate race: State Senator Kay Hagan has agreed to run against incumbent Republican Elizabeth Dole. Up until now, the only Democrat in the race was investment banker Jim Neal, who got in the race two weeks ago. Many are upset that the DSCC redoubled recruitment efforts only when it became clear that Neal was openly gay, but that is an unfair charge. Dole could be vulnerable, but the DSCC has been trying to find a top-tier candidate for months. There is no question that a state Senator can make a stronger candidate than an investment banker with no political experience. A poll taken in July of a potential Hagan-Dole match-up had the incumbent leading 43% to 27%, certainly a big lead but well under the 50% threshold. This definitely remains a long-shot for Democrats, but they can at least try to mount a strong challenge.

  • Poll in New Mexico

Martin Chavez, the main Democrat running in the New Mexico Senate race, released an internal poll of the Senate race today, pitting him and Republican Heather Wilson. The poll has the two tied, with Chavez at 41% and Wilson at 40%. This is certainly not that good news for the Democrat… not only can an internal poll never fully be trusted, but everyone noticed that Chavez did not release the numbers pitting him and the other Republican candidate, Steve Pearce, who many now see as the stronger general election competitor. In the first poll of the race released by SUSA last month, Chavez and Wilson were roughly tied but Chavez badly trailed Pearce.

Democrats are probably still looking for another candidate to make this as competitive a race as it should be. There has been some talk about Rep. Udall jumping back in the Senate race… and there is new speculation that Bill Richardson might still be considering to exit the Democratic primaries and jump in the Senate race.


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ARG polls the early states: Romney and Clinton on top of the world

American Research Group just released its monthly wave of early state polls (IA, NH and SC) for both the Democratic and Republican sides. As always, plenty to look at.

  • Democrats

A few hours from the debate, these numbers provide a useful overview of where the race stands. And there is no surprise: Hillary Clinton dominates the race.

  • In Iowa, Clinton leads 32% to 22% for Barack Obama. Edwards is continuing his slow decline, coming in at 15%. This is the lowest Edwards has been in in the 11 surveys since December 2006. A month ago, Clinton led 30% to Obama’s 24% and Edwards 19%. Richardson is at 7% (down from 10%) and Biden climbs at 5%!
  • In New Hampshire, the numbers are unchanged since September. Clinton comes in with 40%, far ahead of Obama’s 22% and Edwards’s 10%. Richardson goes down to 5%, his lowest level since April.
  • In South Carolina, Clinton is more dominant than she has ever been. Last month, she led 41% to 30%. Today, she is still at 41% but Obama is down at 19%, tied with Edwards’s 18%. Here too Biden shows some movement, moving up to 6%. Among African-American voters, Clinton is ahead of Obama 39% to 30%.

Could things be any better for Hillary Clinton? Not only is she building big enough leads in New Hampshire and in South Carolina to survive a stumble in Iowa… but she is expanding her Iowa lead, and is coming in consistently ahead in Iowa surveys. Her opponents will have to find a way to get those numbers down in the early states. They are quick to dismiss national numbers as irrelevant, but it is hard to make the same argument with such a collection of early state surveys.

We also seem to be witnessing some shake-up in the lower-tier, with Joe Biden emerging to contest Richardson’s role as the possible foil of the top-tier. This has been confirmed by other surveys from IA and NH that have shown Biden rising towards the high single-digits.

  • Republicans

I argued yesterday that Giuliani would have a very tough time winning New Hampshire, but that he has to find a way to do survive January. The ARG numbers underscore the extent of the challenge Giuliani faces:

  • In Iowa, Romney is ahead, as always, with 27%. But the shocking result is the solid second-place of Mike Huckabee, who comes in at 19% — ahead of Giuliani’s 16%. Then comes McCain at 14% and Thompson at 8%.
  • In New Hampshire, Romney is still on top — and he even reaches 30% for the first time. Giuliani is behind at 23%, followed by McCain at 17%, Huckabee at 7% and Thompson at 5%. However strange the Thompson number might seem, it is in line with other polls we have seen.
  • And in South Carolina, ARG once again finds Romney on top, expanding his lead: 29% to Giuliani’s 23%, with McCain at 13% and Thompson at 10%. It is worth to point out that ARG is the only institute that has shown Romney ahead in SC.

The trouble for Romney’s opponents is that Romney’s winning Iowa could ensure that he also wins New Hampshire and South Carolina by giving him such momentum that his opponents could not possibly stop him. Contested Iowa victories lifts candidates who were left for dead into NH triumphs (see Kerry), so imagine what it can do for candidates who are already on top!

The trouble for Giuliani is that he is not even a strong second to Romney, and coming behind Huckabee in IA (and possibly behind McCain in NH) would be quite humiliating. Rudy’s hope is that Huckabee’s showing becomes the story out of Iowa, taking wind out of the Romney campaign. But as long as Romney wins, that seems to be wishful thinking on part of the Giuliani camp. Then there is always the possibility that Huckabee could win the Iowa caucuses — it seems more likely at this point than a Giuliani victory. David Yepsen thinks that is very much possible… That could very well save Rudy by making Romney as big a loser out of Iowa than he would be.


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Morning Polls: So much for Giuliani’s home-state effect

  • SUSA polls New York

So much for the boost that Rudy Giuliani is supposed to give Republicans in New York. SUSA’s new state poll shows just how strong Hillary Clinton is in her home state, as Giuliani manages to hold her… below 70%!

  • Against Rudy Giuliani, Clinton has her smallest advantage… though she still wins 64% to 30%.
  • In fact, McCain does about as well as Rudy, since he trails 67-38.
  • Against Thompson, it’s 70-26, roughly similar to her 70-25 against Romney, 72-22 against Huckabee and 72-21 against Ron Paul.
  • In further proof that New York is not for Republicans in 2008, SUSA shows that Al Gore would lead Rudy 59% to 38%.

Rudy Giuliani’s argument is that he would put NY, NJ and CT in play. Though New York seems out of consideration (to say the least), NJ and CT polls have shown tighter races there.

  • GOP should still be stronger in Virginia

A few days after SUSA showed Hillary slightly ahead against Republicans in the usually reliably red Virginia (at least on the presidential level), Rasmussen came out with its own poll of Virginia. A month ago, Rasmussen had Hillary with a small edge against Rudy. Today, Giuliani leads her 46% to 43%. Against Thompson, Hillary is basically tied, trailing 46% to 45%.

These are still great numbers for Hillary, who is not supposed to be this competitive in the state at all. The last time Virginia voted for a Democrat was 1964, and neither Gore nor Kerry ever had any chance here. Hillary is not supposed to be competitive in states like this, say her Democratic opponents, and that she has managed to tie or lead Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson in every single Virginia poll that has been out this season shows that these are not outliers, and the GOP will have to sweat it out to keep this must-win state.

  • Warner ahead in Virginia

Rasmussen also released the first Senate poll from Virginia since Tom Davis announced he was not running. That left the GOP nomination in the hands of former Governor Jim Gilmore. And as we expected, the seat looks like a sure pick-up for Democrats: Mark Warner leads Gilmore 53% to 37%.

It has to be said, however, that Warner typically has posted bigger leads, coming in sometimes in the 60s. If his lead is indeed approximately 16 percent, Republicans can perhaps hope to bring him down enough to make this competitive. But both Gilmore and Warner are known commodities in the state and the GOP is likely to concede this seat without much of a fight, so don’t expect too much fireworks here.


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Edwards hits Hillary, but who will benefit most?

John Edwards is launching a new offensive against Hillary Clinton - and he really has no other choice. Both Barack Obama and him must get more confrontational, as Hillary is running away with the nomination. No amount of money will slow her down unless her rivals try new arguments or at the very least dial up the volume of their attacks.

Obama has been promising to do this for weeks now, but he has mostly remained quiet, so it Edwards who attacked first by delivering a major speech that ties Clinton to Washington’s culture of corruption. (You can read his full speech - entitled “The Moral Test of our Generation” - here.) Some excerpts:

It is not an accident that the government of the United States cannot function on behalf of its people, because it is no longer our people’s government — and we the people know it. This corruption did not begin yesterday — and it did not even begin with George Bush — it has been building for decades — until it now threatens literally the life of our democracy…

Senator Clinton’s road to the middle class takes a major detour right through the deep canyon of corporate lobbyists and the hidden bidding of K Street in Washington, and history tells us that when that bus stops there it is the middle class that loses…

Today Hillary Clinton has taken more money from Washington lobbyists than any candidate from either party — more money than any Republican candidate… The long slow slide of our democracy into the corporate abyss continues unabated regardless of party, regardless of the best interests of America.

Edwards is embracing a strongly populist rhetoric that could appeal to many in the Democratic base… so why has Edwards not benefited from his willingness to employ such language? His two big problems appear to be that voters are not taking him that seriously (he is behind Clinton and Obama), or they are viewing him as a hypocrite. Edwards might simply not be the best candidate for this message - he was running four years ago, after all, so the sudden differences in campaign style are obvious!

Edwards is going after Hillary’s mean weaknesses: her connections to the establishment. But there is key question: who will benefit the most? If Edwards weakens Hillary, will he be the one to take her votes? Or will disillusioned Clinton voters turn to Barack Obama? In Iowa, where caucus goers are turned off from negative campaigning (witness Gephardt and Dean’s mutual destruction in 2004), it could be Obama who benefits from Edwards’s attacks.”

At the end of the day, however, Obama cannot rely on Edwards to soften Clinton. The race will come down to Hillary versus an alternative. Obama will have to step it up a notch as well if he wants to take this away from the frontrunner. There is a Democratic debate tomorrow, and we will have to see if the Illinois Senator can perform better than at the Dartmouth debate last month. After all, Obama himself said today that the “politics of hope was not about ‘holding hands and singing ‘Kumbaya.’ ”

In other news among Democrats, Obama is still being hurt by the controversy over anti-gay gospel singer McClurkin. Though HRC condemned Obama, the event went ahead as planned… and things got worse as McClurkin declared at the event that, “God delivered me from homosexuality.” Obama’s response was very weak, and his campaign was blasted all day by progressive activists. Prominent blogger Atrios talked about the “audacity of homophobia”. This does indeed go at the heart of Obama’s all-inclusive philosophy and tolerance of every view in the name of a post-partisan political culture.

And Obama did not endear himself to the base today by running a new ad on Social Security acknowledging that there is a Social Security crisis — a point Bush made repeatedly in the past few years but that the Left countered. Kos, who is usually very favorable to Obama, summarized Obama’s day thus:

Not a good week for Obama, and it’s only Monday. His b.s. about bringing American together is clearly just b.s. His judgment is seriously in question. And now, on a major policy issue, he appears to be adopting right-wing rhetoric. It’s a real train wreck.


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Giuliani betting on New Hampshire

The Politico is reporting today that Rudy Giuliani will play for the win in New Hampshire. This includes a renewed effort to spend time in the state (he just spent four straight days there) and compete seriously — whereas until now he seemed to be content with second-place. Giuliani’s plan has always been surviving January and waiting for February 5th to pounce in the quasi-natoinal primary day then.

It has long since been obvious, however, that the plan had a glaring flaw: Giuliani cannot survive January that easily. He cannot expect to lose Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan and South Carolina without his numbers plunging in California, Florida and the other big February 5th states. With Romney set up for an ideal IA-NH double victory and Thompson looking strong in SC, that is the scenario Giuliani is looking to. At least if he could be sure he would be second in all of these state that might make things easier — but he has no such assurance. He is tied with Huckabee and Thompson for second place in IA, and McCain could very well take it from him in New Hampshire.

So Giuliani seems to have understood he can’t survive January without winning SOMEWHERE. Iowa seems pretty much out of the picture at this point, and Giuliani is not strong enough in SC to hope for a win there without momentum from previous victories. So that leaves New Hampshire, where polls show him a very close second behind Mitt Romney. Romney’s lead typically vary from 1 to 15 points, though he is consistently ahead.

Thus Giulani is betting that with a strong push there, he could make it happen, and he could come out of NH with a victory. One reason supporting Giuliani’s theory is that he has not even started running ads in the state, whereas Romney has already done an intense ad campaign.

If the primary takes place in December, as is possible (we will know in about a week), very well! Giuliani as 5-6 more weeks to cover the state with ads, camp there, and win it away from Romney. But if the primary takes place on January 8th, as is more probable… Giuliani will find a victory extremely difficult.

Romney looks very strong in Iowa, and is likely to come out with a victory in the caucuses on January 3rd. Thus, Romney will have strong momentum coming out of Iowa and heading into New Hampshire — the kind of momentum that lifts one by a lot (witness Kerry’s 20 points jump overnight in 2004). Romney is already leading in New Hampshire. All he has to do from now till January 3rd is stay in contact with Giuliani. Not necessarily be in the lead, just hover somewhere tied or behind Rudy — that much should be enough for Romney to get back ahead after Iowa votes.

For Giuliani to win New Hampshire he will have to build a significant, large and non-volatile lead by January 3rd… Something that looks very unlikely for now. Even if he manages to get ahead of Romney by airing lots of ad, that support is likely to be weak and non-committed, the kind of support that Dean had in 2004.

So the only way for Rudy Giuliani to win New Hampshire would be to seriously contest Iowa — many not come out with a win, but place a strong second so that his rise/come-back is THE story out of the Iowa caucuses (after all, everyone expects Romney to win at this point). But this morning’s Iowa poll shows Giuliani has a long way to go to make that happen. He would be lucky to barely be second at this point, and he does not appear particularly commited to Iowa.


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Romney’s great morning: He crushes the field in IA and gets key endorsement in NH

The University of Iowa just released our favorite kind of poll — one from the Iowa caucuses. The results are not particularly surprising, and confirm what we have seen elsewhere:

  • Among Republicans, Mitt Romney crushes the field with 36.2%, with a three-way tie for second far far behind: Rudy Giuliani at 13.1%, Mike Huckabee at 12.8%, Fred Thompson at 11.4%. John McCain comes in fifth at 6%.
  • Among Democrats, Clinton at 28.9% and Obama at 26.6% are pretty much tied for first, while Edwards is falling behind with 20%. Richardson is no longer in the double digits, at 7.2%, and Biden is rising above the last-tier (as we have seen in other polls) at 5.3%.

Before you put too much stock in this poll, however, read this warning from Pollster.com that explains why the likely voter screen of U of Iowa poll are much looser than any other polling institute, so that many people are polled here that will likely not go to the caucuses — something which probably hurts John Edwards if anyone, since he has the most support among regular caucus goers and motivated voters.

A few quick notes. Interesting to note that Hillary’s edge is coming entirely from women, among whom she gets 33%. Among men, Clinton comes in third with 22%. We see, once again, that Iowa is the state in which Clinton might stumble — she is strong everywhere else, and will remain so unless she slips here. Obama and Edwards are definitely in a position to make that happen. Among Republicans, Romney is in an incredible position and has to keep this going. The fight is and will likely remain for second place, though it really might not matter if the three come so close to each other. Huckabee would get a huge boost out of second-place showing, and Giuliani might take a huge hit to his frontrunner status if he does not come in second.

Also noteworthy — the Iowa Democrats are now set on January 3rd for sure. I reported this last week but there was still a chance they might have changed their mind. No longer.

  • Key endorsement for Romney in New Hampshire

Judd Gregg, NH’s senior Senator, just endorsed Mitt Romney. This is great news for the Romney campaign — albeit not a great surprise since Gregg had long been a fan of Romney’s. This means that Romney got good news in one morning from both Iowa and New Hampshire, underscoring exactly why he is in such a great position. Favored to win in both Iowa and New Hampshire, he is successfully following the classic model of winning presidential primaries and setting himself up for a one-two punch in Iowa and in New Hampshire. That would put him immediately in the driver’s seat, with all other candidates scrambling to survive until February 5th.

  • Rasmussen continues to show Rudy’s rise

In another poll released this morning, Rasmussen shows Giuliani’s rise once again. Yesterday, he showed Rudy up nine points against Clinton going from a 7 points deficit to a two point lead in two weeks. Today, Rasmussen shows Rudy up 10 points on John Edwards. A month ago, Edwards led by 9% (he led by 8% two months ago). Today, Rudy Giuliani is up 45% to 44%. But Edwards keeps his lead against Fred Thompson, 48% to 39%.

Ten days ago, the 3 Dems led all 12 match-ups against the 4 Reps. One by one, Rasmussen is peeling these away. Now Rudy is leading against Clinton and Edwards, and Mccain against Obama.


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Evening roundup: Dodd continues courting the base, Democrats courting Udall

Chris Dodd has emerged as quite a surprise in the Democratic primary. I first mentioned his remarkable move to the Left at the beginning of September when he announced his support for lifting the embargo on Cuba. Dodd followed that up by leading on the issue of Iraq throughout September, being the first presidential candidate to announce he would oppose any bill that would not set firm deadline for withdrawal. Then came his promise to filibuster the FISA bill if the immunity for telephone companies is maintained. And today, Chris Dodd further satisfied the Democratic base by announcing he will oppose the confirmation of Attorney General Michael Mukasey.

Democrats are not fully opposing Mukasey. The nominee, after all, was recommended by Democrat Chuck Schumer as someone who would be acceptable to Democrats. But Mukasey’s refusal to straight-forwardly rule out torture and waterboarding is not matching up with the picture of a law-abiding constitution-respecting Muckasey, so Dodd’s latest move will make a lot of people happy. From Dodd’s website:

Mr. Mukasey’s position that the President does not have to heed the law disqualifies him from being the chief attorney for the United States. We have seen for too long, and at great expense to our national security, an Administration that has systematically attacked the rule of law and turned our Justice Department into a political wing of the White House. I’m afraid that Mr. Mukasey as Attorney General would be more of the same.

Dodd has been unablbe to get much traction from this, still registering at 1 or 2% in national and state polls. He is, however, fast rising in the hearts of the netroots — he came in second in DailyKos’s October straw poll (21% of 6000 individual voters), behind Edwards and in front of Obama.

  • Will Democrats get Udall in New Mexico?

Democrats are still trying to convince Rep. Tom Udall to jump in the New Mexico Senate race. The Washington Post reports today on grassroots efforts to draft him in — though there is no mention of any similar effort by the DSCC. The article leave open the possibility that Udall might be convinced to change his mind. Recruitment efforts have been mixed in the state for Dems since Domenici announced his retirement. The two most competitive Dems (Richardson and Udall) declined to run, leaving Albuquerque Mayor Chavez alone in the race. The only poll of the race out last month had Udall crushing Republicans Pearce and Wilson, but both Republicans beating Chavez. With progressives being very uncomfortable with Chavez’s candidacy, Udall’s entrance would immediately improve Democratic prospects in the race.


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Morning polls: Is Mitch McConnell really that vulnerable?

The Kentucky Senate race is currently rated 15 on my senate rankings. I was preparing to move it up a few slots, but that was more because of other races looking much less competitive than because I believed the situation in KY had changed significantly. But a new poll out today — the first I have seen testing actual match-ups — suggests that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is in for a tough fight.

The poll, ordered by Herald-Leader/Action News 36, is an independent survey, not a Democratic fantasy, and the numbers are show the extent of the Republican weakness:

  • Mitch McConnell’s disapproval rating for the first time exceeds his approval rating: 46% to 45%. A small difference, but a significant shift for a man who used to be very popular in his state. SUSA monthly polls have a similar finding, as McConell’s approval dropped from 60% in February to 41% this month.
  • Rep. Chandler, who unsuccessfully ran for Governor in 2003, is within 5 points of McConell: 46% to 41%. Only trouble, Chandler has made it very clear he has no intention of running.
  • But no reason to panic for Democrats, for three Democrats who are strongly considering the race are also very strong: State Auditor Luallen, who is up for re-election in 10 days and has not ruled out a run, is also within 5 points: 45% to 40%.
  • Attorney General Stumbo, who is the most likely to jump in the race (he has an explanatory committee and is looking to decide within the next few weeks) is behind 46% to 37%.
  • And in perhaps the best sign that McConnell is vulnerable, he only leads by 11 against a veteran of the Iraq War, Horne, who is mostly unknown.

Most revealing, of course, is that McConnell cannot cross 50% against any candidate. Being under 50% is supposed to be a sign of vulnerablity for an incumbent, as undecideds tend to break for challengers, but failing to gather a majority against unknown candidates is definitely a sign something is wrong. The most likely explanation is that McConnell is being Dashle-ized. His new partisan position in DC is having a bad impact on his image back home. Reid is suffering from the same phenomenon in Nevada, but he is not up for re-election until 2010.

This is as much a sign of the weakness of Kentucky Republicans than of McConnell’s personal vulnerability. GOP Gov. Fletcher is about to lose in a landslide in ten days, and devastating ads like this one are hurting the GOP brand dramatically by reminding voters of the extent of Fletcher’s corruption. And Hillary should not be a weight on the ticket if she is the nominee, given recent polls that actually have her ahead in the state!

  • Rasmussen has bad news for Clinton

Two weeks ago, Rasmussen had Clinton leading Giuliani by 7 and Thompson by 15 in its national poll. This confirmed the previous polls Rasmussen had taken, as well as other polls by other institutes that showed Clinton inching ahead of Giuliani in national match-ups. But today’s Rasmussen numbers are a dramatic turnaround: Giuliani now leads Clinton 46% to 44%, and Clinton is only ahead of Thompson 47% to 45%. Yes, those are only one set of numbers, but the trendline is not good. Though Rasmussen points out that over the past 6 weeks of polling, Clinton leads Giuliani 47% to 44% and Thompson 49% to 41%. The other bottom line: Until last week, the three major Democrats led all twelve match-ups against the four major Republicans in the latest Rasmussen polls. Now, two such “last match-ups” favor the Republicans: Obama-McCain and Clinton-Giuliani.


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Fiscal conservatives rallying against Huckabee

The dominant story of the past few weeks in the GOP race has been the Religious Right’s crusade against Rudy Giuliani. But an equally interesting dynamic is developing around the candidacy of Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas. Business conservatives are very hostile to Huckabee and see in him an economic populist guilty of having raised taxes and hurting free trade while governor.

Naturally, Huckabee is still a long shot for the nomination. He is raising in state polls and some national polls, but he has absolutely no money and still remains far behind the frontrunners. But Huckabee is at the very top of vice-presidential prospects — especially if the presidential nominee is Giuliani. Thus, business conservatives are stepping in to deflate Huckabee’s momentum and portray him as unacceptable.

The Wall Street Journal’s John Fund recently wrote a very negative piece on Huckabee, making the case that Huckabee is embracing liberal policies. Fund quotes an Arkansas businessman rehashing Huckabee’s faults: “He’s hostile to free trade, hiked sales and grocery taxes, backed sales taxes on Internet purchases, and presided over state spending going up more than twice the inflation rate.”

Now, the Club for Growth has jumped in as well. Its very influential president Pat Toomey wrote an op-ed in the National Review exposing Huckabee’s “stunning record of big-government liberalism,” protectionism and support for unions. He explains that “the average Arkansan’s tax burden increased 47 percent” and that “state spending increased by 50 percent.” Toomey concludes, “In 2006, Republicans paid a steep price for big-government conservatism’s record-setting domestic spending spree. That is a lesson we should take to heart as we consider the choices facing us in 2008.”

The most threatening argument was voiced by leading RedState blogger Erick:

While the media has been filled with stories about the socons ready to bolt from the GOP if Rudy is the nominee, the real story and the untold story is that the business community is even more ready to bolt from the GOP. For the last eight years they’ve watched as the socons have scored every significant win on the right — stem cells, judges, etc. The fiscal guys see the writing on the wall. Huckabee breaks the coalition more than Giuliani because the socons fear Hillary more than the fiscalcons do.

How much would a Giuliani-Huckabee ticket calm all these concerns? By balancing an economically conservative social moderate with a socially conservative economic moderate, would it save the Republican coalition, or just anger everyone? Recent weeks have taught us that talk of breaking the coalition is mostly empty talk, and that social conservatives are not ready to bolt out of the GOP — just as fiscal conservatives probably are not. Thus, a Giuliani-Huckabee ticket would outwardly satisfy everyone. But in an election where the GOP base is already depressed and disillusioned, it might drive everyone’s enthusiasm even lower — giving Democrats an invaluable motiation advantage.



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    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

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    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

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    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

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    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

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    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Election night cheat sheet

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • Final ratings: Democrats brace for historic losses

  • Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

    Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

    Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55
  • What to watch for down-ballot

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Strict Standards: mktime(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 41

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 50

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 52

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 54

Strict Standards: date(): It is not safe to rely on the system's timezone settings. You are *required* to use the date.timezone setting or the date_default_timezone_set() function. In case you used any of those methods and you are still getting this warning, you most likely misspelled the timezone identifier. We selected 'America/New_York' for 'EST/-5.0/no DST' instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/functions.php on line 55

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1002

Deprecated: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is deprecated, use preg_replace_callback instead in /homepages/33/d214989360/htdocs/wp-includes/kses.php on line 1003

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